In recent years, the world has seen an escalation in war situations and an increase in the number of disasters. In war situations, the risks that affect the educational process are even greater. Children need to be moved from one place to another, to a safer place. Sometimes it is difficult to know where the next stop should be and for how long. Where and how should education be organised in these situations of uncertain reality?  

As by November 2023, according to UNICEF “400 million children – or about 1 child in every 5 – are living in or fleeing from conflict zones. They are losing family members and friends. And some are being recruited and used by armed forces or groups. Many of them have been displaced multiple times, risking separation from their families, losing critical years of education, and fraying ties to their communities”[1]. Even children grow up and become adults in this insecure reality, and it is not possible to know how long the insecurity will last and what the conditions and capacities for education will be.

When we look at the range of cases from different conflict countries, we see how non-specifically organised educational spaces are in an intermediate state of uncertainty. These cases are sometimes unique and unexpected, but they are important for overcoming the challenges of educational processes in uncertainty. There is no country and no educational system that is safe from risky situations and long-term uncertainties. "We have to learn to deal with uncertainty... to calculate with uncertainty...”[2]

War and conflict create unique levels of insecurity. How these shape educational settings and pedagogical situations is not yet well understood. Theoretical tools, conceptual understandings and analytical approaches are not defined at a scientific and academic level. It is not possible to formulate conflict-related uncertainties and bring them to the classroom, for example. There is still a lack of constructed knowledge about post-war reconstruction or conflict prevention, the role of time in understanding conflict or war, education in uncertainty related to political crisis, etc. 

This systematic analysis aims to understand the complex interplay of factors related to the pedagogical processes, identifying schooling within uncertainties in war and conflicts.

The specific objective is to suggest a specific framework to understand uncertainty in education research on situations of simmering and hidden conflicts.

The analysis will seek to explore the following key research questions

A)     What are the theoretical views, understandings, formulations of uncertainty in educational research on situations of simmering and hidden conflicts?

B)     What models of education are used in emergencies, conflicts and wars?

C)     How should systematic analysis of schooling in uncertainty and pedagogy of uncertainty in war situations be constructed? What should be the scientific dimension of schooling in uncertainties?

However, there is no scientifically defined approach to uncertainty and schooling in uncertainty, especially in situations of war and conflict. In the current educational discourse, there are no models of education that can be used to navigate pedagogical challenges in situations of uncertainty. 

Current educational research has identified different approaches to education in conflict countries and risks to education in war situations. It is possible to understand - how war affects children and their development [3], what type of risks and crises face education during the war [4], [5]. Therefore, as we can see educational researchers need to highlight the problems that cannot be solved by the rules and standards and that are outside the normal educational processes. The researches from the countries with armed conflicts show that the central importance is given to the security and the priority needs[6]. 

The research will be based on systematic analysis and conceptual research methods. Conceptual research methods will be used to identify a clear trend in the accumulation of knowledge in both conceptual and pedagogical methodological areas. Specific variables will be identified in relation to education and uncertainty in conflict and war situations. The conceptual framework will be used to show how uncertainty and educational phenomena: events, related persons, factors, etc. come together in war or conflict situations. Uncertainty and education in uncertainty, especially in war and conflict situations, will be conceptualised, a scientific approach defined and a conceptual framework generated. The method of modeling will be used to develop, visualise and present models of education that can be applied in emergencies, conflicts and wars. Conceptual framework will focus comprehensive and holistic description of theoretical tools for the scientific dimension of schooling in uncertainties related to simmering and hidden conflicts.

The main expected outcome of this systematic analysis will be: - Conceptualised educational framework on uncertainty in conflict and war situations based on literature review. - A model of educational insecurity in emergencies, conflicts and wars based on desk research and secondary analysis, bringing together all possible existing data on education in insecurity. - Methodology and system of theoretical tools for conceptual descriptions and scientific dimensions of schooling in uncertainties and pedagogies of uncertainty related to simmering and hidden conflicts.

[1] “Children live in a world that is increasingly hostile to their rights” by UNICEF Executive Director Catherin Russell. 20 November 2023. https://www.unicef.org/lac/en/press-releases/children-live-world-increasingly-hostile-their-rights#:~:text=%E2%80%9CWe%20estimate%20that%20today%2C%20400,by%20armed%20forces%20or%20groups. [2] Lindley D., (2014). Understanding Uncertainty. Revised edition. WILEY press. P. 17. [3] Werner, W. (2012). Children and war: Risk, resilience, and recovery. Development and Psychopathology, 24, P. 553-558. Cambridge University Press. [4] The Hidden crisis: armed conflict and education; EFA global monitoring report, 2011. The hidden crisis: armed conflict and education | Global Education Monitoring Report (unesco.org) [5] Education under attack: Attacks on schools, students and educators are attacks on children’s right to an education – and on their futures. UNICEF. https://www.unicef.org/education-under-attack [6] War and Education. How a Year of the Full-scale Invasion Influenced Ukrainian Schools | Cedos. https://cedos.org.ua/en/researches/war-and-education-how-a-year-of-the-full-scale-invasion-influenced-ukrainian-schools/