The expansion of higher education has been rapid during the last half century. In the developed countries, about 4-5 % of the relevant age groups enrolled in university studies just after the World War II. In 2005, the proportions in most of those countries were up around 30-40 % (Trow, 2005). In Sweden, the number of university students increased from 14 000 in the late 1940s to nearly 400 000 in the early 2000s. The increase in higher education enrolment raises questions about differences due to social background in conditions to attain an upper secondary education that prepares for higher education. The social background of students in secondary and higher education has been an important topic for educational research in Sweden. Husén (1946a,b, 1947, 1950) analysed the relation between education and ability scores, and estimated the proportion of students in four samples that despite a high level of ability did not get the education they were intellectually able to attain. The results showed a strong over-representation of secondary level students from upper-middle class, and 12-14% of each sample were estimated to be intellectually able to attain a high school certificate. Härnqvist (1958) estimated, by the use of a more relevant method, that 28% were intellectually able to attain the certificate. Härnqvist´s results constituted the basis for the strong expansion of higher education in the 1960s. Corresponding analyses (Härnqvist, 1995) on the 1972 cohort showed that 50% could be expected to have a chance to complete a theoretical upper secondary education (equivalent to the high school certificate), while the proportion attained was about 37%. Flynn (1984) showed an increased level of general cognitive ability of 3 IQ-units per/decades on 50 years, in the population. Estimates of "the reserve of ability" for upper secondary education based on the Flynn-effect (Cliffordson, 2008), for cohorts born in the early 1970s, correspond with the Härnqvist (1995) results. Härnqvist (2003) suggested that the main factor behind the increase in all socio-economic groups was the greater geographical spread of secondary education that occurred during the 1950-60s. Another factor was the increasing level of education among the parents which had an effect on the children’s choice of education. This conclusion corresponds to what Dickens and Flynn (2001), in a model developed with the purpose to explain the Flynn-effect, identified as a social multiplier effect. The curriculum for secondary education implemented in 1994 was based on the assumption that almost all individuals are able to acquire the fundamental qualifications required to get access to higher education. However, arguing that this curriculum is a failure because the dropout rate has increased, the government has proposed to reduce the amount of theoretical content in vocationally oriented programs. Härnqvist argued (2003) that the studies regarding the reserve of ability provided arguments for an expansion of secondary and higher education that was based upon empirical evidence, in contrast to many reforms in later decades. The main purpose of the current study is to investigate how the upper secondary school really works. The specific purposes are to examine: differences between dropouts and those who complete their studies, as a function of social background and grades from compulsory school; the extent of differences between the two categories, as a function of student characteristics; and factors of importance for the choice of program, such as social background and/or personality variables.

The data used were collected in a longitudinal project (Evaluation Through Follow-up). The subjects constitute a representative sample of 9 000 students born in 1987. The variables used are grades from compulsory school, socio-economic class, gender, choice of upper secondary program and questionnaire data.

Even if the dropout rate is rather high, the results indicate that the proportion of students who has completed an upper secondary education has increased the last five year. Dropouts show generally weaker interest for the programme chosen, have not got enough support from their teachers, and have generally lower grades from compulsory school. Hence, there are measures to take in both compulsory and secondary school to decrease the dropout rate. Thus, the solution to the dropout problem is not to reduce the theoretical content in vocational programs because this will just decrease the possibilities for many students to get access to higher education.