Session Information
26 SES 01 B, School Improvement and Development Through the Lens of Educational Leadership
Paper Session
Contribution
Previous research has highlighted the fundamental contribution of leadership to educational improvement (Leithwood et al., 2020). Although there are different conceptual approaches to leadership, the evidence is conclusive in identifying the crucial role of principals in school success (Day et al., 2010). During the last decades, studies on the importance of school leaders have been accompanied by a growing global concern about a shortage of people willing to lead schools. There is a common agreement across most educational systems that school leadership has lost popularity, generating a scenario where fewer people are interested in applying, and more leaders are leaving the position (Hancock et al., 2019). As Towers points out, the challenges of recruitment and retention has generated "a leadership crisis" (2022, p. 206). This crisis is not new (Gajda & Militello, 2008) as evidence of this difficulty could be found as early as the 1980s (Simpson, 1987), with a spike at the turn of the century (Earley et al., 2009) and consolidation during the last decade (DeMatthews et al., 2022). Even though retention studies have increased in recent years, this area is still in "its infancy" (Hansen, 2018, p. 88).
Previous research has been categorical in explaining the negative consequences of rapid and disorganised principal change (Bartanen et al., 2019). While a certain level of rotation could be seeing as a positive element in schools with severe difficulties, ineffective leadership or communities seeking innovation (Davis & Anderson, 2020), the evidence is conclusive in identifying negative consequences when the change of directors occurs suddenly and repeatedly. As Mascall and Leithwood point out, "While principal turnover is inevitable in every school, too rapid turnover—or succession—is widely thought to present significant challenges to districts and schools" (2010, p. 368). Frequent leadership changes are associated with cycles of decline in school performance (Béteille et al., 2012), which can be explained by the loss of trust in the educational community, reconfiguration of collective memory, changes in school cultures, reallocation of resources, and restoration of visions (Pendola & Fuller, 2021).
In Chile, massive changes have been introduced during the last decade to enhance principals' performance, including a professional framework framing practices and responsibilities and an investment in professional development for current and future principals (Campos et al., 2019). In 2011, law 20.501 reshaped the selection process for principals, focusing the responsibilities of leaders on school improvement and instructional change through a 5-year performance agreement between principal and the local authority. Each selected principal must implement an improvement plan, setting goals and objectives around student’s learning (Montecinos et al., 2015). Yet, after a decade of implementation, little is known about the policy's success, particularly in selecting and retaining principals, and even less about the relationship between principals' retention and improvement. Building upon a decade of data, this paper aims to contribute to the global and local debate about principals' career path and school improvement. The main questions this paper seeks to answer are:
- What is the percentage of retention of school principals?
- What is the probability of retention of a female principal compared to a male principal with the same characteristics (age, region, and type of school)?
- Is there a significant difference in retention analysing principals by age, region, or type of school? If so, where is the difference?
- Is there a relationship between principal retention and school improvement? If so, how is the relationship?
Method
Under a quantitative paradigm, we explore the last decade of principal selection and retention. Using a publicly available database from the Civil Service, we analysed all the hiring decisions in primary and secondary public schools in Chile, from the first selection in January 2012 to the last in December 2021. Particular attention is given to the cases in which principals were hired for two consecutive terms to lead the same schools. Over 6.520 selection processes were analysed, where 4.242 principals were selected. To answer the research questions, first we use descriptive analysis and Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) to estimate the probability of retention of a female principal using a linear combination of the previously identified independent variables (age, region, and type of school). For the MLR, initially we identify the equation for the nominal dependent variable, and then we will estimate the probability of retention of a female principal. We will also use the Wald test to determine if the coefficients in the MLR are significantly different than zero. If the coefficient is different than zero, we will assume that its contribution is significant. Finally, we estimate the odds ratio of retention of a female principal compared to male principals. To estimate if the differences are statistically significant, we will use a 3-way ANOVA followed by post-hoc tests. The 3-way ANOVA will allow us to determine if there is a three-way relationship among the independent variables (age, region, and type of school) and principal retention. If the F value is statistically significant, we will follow the analysis with post-hoc test to determine where the difference is. Finally, we explore the relationship between principal retention and school improvement. We used two points of data (2016 and 2019) from the Quality Agency (similar to England’s OFSTED), which categorise schools on four levels of performance (insufficient, medium-low, medium, and high), to establish the direction of improvement. We organised the schools following the model initially proposed by Stoll and Fink (1996). We test this relationship using a Chi-Square test of independence.
Expected Outcomes
Even though our focus is on principal retention, we notice massive problems in selection. More than 1/3 of the selection process concluded without having selected a principal. This frequency is relatively stable across years and locations. This finding suggests administrative district-level challenges or professional development difficulties that might spill over into retention. Only 20% of the principals selected got a principalship in the same schools for a second term, 6% obtain a similar position in the same municipality (district), 10% in the same region, and 5% in a different region. Most principals (58%) were selected only once. Female principals have a significantly higher probability of retention (p < 0.001), where the odd of retention for a female principal is 1.217 higher than for males. We also notice that men tend to migrate longer distances (move across Chile) when securing a second principalship, whereas females tend to stay more often in the same school or district. Our initial findings strongly suggest a positive relationship between retention and improvement. Using the performance categorisation of the national Quality Agency, our analysis indicates that more frequently improving schools are the ones retaining principals; while strolling and declining schools tend to change principals more rapidly. More work is needed to establish the characteristics of this relationship.
References
Bartanen, B., Grissom, J. A., & Rogers, L. K. (2019). The Impacts of Principal Turnover. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 41(3), 350-374. Béteille, T., Kalogrides, D., & Loeb, S. (2012). Stepping stones: Principal career paths and school outcomes. Social Science Research, 41(4), 904-919. Campos, F., Valdés, R., & Ascorra, P. (2019). ¿Líder pedagógico o gerente de escuela? Evolución del rol del director de escuela en Chile. Calidad en la Educación, 51, 53. Davis, B., & Anderson, E. (2020). Visualising differential principal turnover. Journal of Educational Administration, 59(2), 177-198. Day, C., Sammons, P., Leithwood, K., Hopkins, D., Harris, A., & Gu, Q. (2010). Ten strong claims about successful school leadership. En N. C. for L. of S. and C. Services (Ed.), National College for Leadership of Schools and Children’s Services. DeMatthews, D. E., Childs, J., Knight, D., Cruz, P., & Clarida, K. (2022). More than Meets the Eye: Rural Principal Turnover and Job-Embeddedness before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Leadership and Policy in Schools, 1-24. Earley, P., Weindling, D., Bubb, S., & Glenn, M. (2009). Future leaders: The way forward? School Leadership and Management, 29(3), 295-306. Gajda, R., & Militello, M. (2008). Recruiting and Retaining School Principals: What We Can Learn from Practicing Administrators. AASA Journal of Scholarship & Practice, 5(2), 14-20. Hancock, D., Müller, U., Wang, C., & Hachen, J. (2019). Factors influencing school principals’ motivation to become principals in the U.S.A. and Germany. International Journal of Educational Research, 95(April), 90-96. Hansen, C. (2018). Why Rural Principals Leave. The Rural Educator, 39(1), 41-54. Leithwood, K., Harris, A., & Hopkins, D. (2020). Seven strong claims about successful school leadership revisited. School Leadership & Management, 40(1), 5-22. Mascall, B., & Leithwood, K. (2010). Investing in Leadership: The District’s Role in Managing Principal Turnover. Leadership and Policy in Schools, 9(4), 367-383. Montecinos, C., Ahumada, L., Galdames, S., Campos, F., & Leiva, M. V. (2015). Targets, threats and (dis)trust: The managerial troika for public school principals in Chile. education policy analysis archives, 23(1), 1-24. Pendola, A., & Fuller, E. J. (2021). Adapt or Abandon: Demographic Shocks and Principal Turnover. Leadership and Policy in Schools, 20(4), 704-726. Simpson, T. (1987). Headteacher stress. School Organisation, 7(3), 281-285. Stoll, L., & Fink, D. (1996). Changing Our Schools: Linking School Effectiveness and School Improvement. Open University Press. Towers, E. (2022). Why do Headteachers Stay in Disadvantaged Primary Schools in London? Leadership and Policy in Schools, 21(2), 206-221.
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