Teachers have a crucial role in maintaining quality and equity in education, yet several countries face challenges in attracting a sufficient number of candidates to the field and retaining qualified teachers (Flores and Craig 2023; Galvin et al. 2023). Estonia is a prime example of a country grappling with this issue. The average age of Estonian teachers is around 50 years, and the proportion of teachers over 60 has increased from 17% to 24% between 2015 and 2023 (Haridussilm 2024; OECD 2020). The proportion of qualified teachers (holders of a teaching certificate and a master’s degree or its equivalent) in general education schools decreased from 87% to 81% during 2017–2022 (Ministry of Education and Research 2022). Moreover, the latest TALIS report (OECD 2020) reveals that in Estonia, 41% of teachers under 35 are considering exiting the profession within the next five years. Estonia recorded the highest proportion of young teachers considering leaving the field of all TALIS countries. The COVID-19 pandemic has also had a negative effect, with almost one-third more teachers leaving their profession in Estonia in the academic year 2021–2022 compared to the situation two years earlier (Arenguseire Keskus 2023). These developments are a massive threat to the Estonian educational system.

Numerous previous studies have addressed the teacher shortage problem in different contexts (Alexander et al. 2020; Carver-Thomas and Darling-Hammond 2019; Harmsen et al. 2018; Kelchtermans 2017; Perryman and Calvert 2020; Podolski et al. 2016; See et al. 2023). In these studies, the focus has been on government policies related to shortages, state statistics, teacher preparation questions or teacher attrition and retention factors. Previous studies have also investigated different stakeholders’ perspectives on teacher shortages, such as teachers and school leaders (e.g. Lampert et al. 2023; Longmuir et al. 2022). However, most of these studies have concentrated on a specific group, and empirical studies focusing on multiple stakeholders’ perspectives, including teachers, school leaders, governors, teacher educators, and policymakers, are scarce. Such studies are needed to develop a more comprehensive understanding of the phenomena.

In the current study, we focus on the problem of teacher shortages from multiple stakeholders’ perspectives and aim to find out what has caused teacher shortages in Estonia and which interventions are needed to tackle teacher shortages from their perspective.

Theoretical framework

Previous studies have identified several individual and contextual factors related to retention (Casely-Hayford et al. 2022, Carver-Thomas and Darling-Hammond 2019; Kelchtermans 2017; Perryman and Calvert 2020; Podolski et al. 2016). Several scholars also distinguish between the pull and push factors causing attrition (Amitai and Van Houtte 2022; Heffernan et al. 2022), where pull factors indicate aspects that contribute to potential teachers choosing other, more attractive careers instead of teaching, and push factors indicate circumstances that contribute to teachers leaving the profession. Some aspects, such as salary, can act both as a pull and a push factor. Exiting the profession is often influenced by a combination of different pull and push factors (Amitai and Van Houtte 2022).

In this presentation we describe, based on recent research evidence, the pull factors that lead potential candidates or teachers to different jobs, and then describe the push factors at the individual, school and job levels that contribute to teachers leaving the profession.

The data were collected via semi-structured focus group interviews between targeting specific groups: 1) pre-service teachers, 2) teacher educators, 3) school governors, 4) school leaders, 5) policymakers, and 6) in-service teachers. Each focus group was comprised of five to eight individuals and was aimed to represent diverse members of a target group. The interviews were conducted via Zoom. A written invitation was sent to potential participants, followed by a digitally signable informed consent form upon agreement. Interviews followed a plan, focusing on various aspects of teacher shortage in Estonia: current situation, causes of shortages, effective measures and suggestions for additional actions. Five researchers conducted the interviews, each covering 1 to 2 focus groups. The interviews, recorded with participant consent, ranged from 70 to 90 minutes. Verbatim transcriptions were produced using pseudonyms. Data analysis utilised qualitative thematic analysis (Braun and Clarke 2006). The analysis was conducted using the web-based interactive software QCAmap (www.qcamap.org). As an initial step, all researchers systematically reviewed the interview transcripts, identifying initial themes relevant to the research questions. One researcher then revisited the entire dataset, conducting an in-depth examination of each previously marked theme. The researcher reviewed and, if necessary, refined the initial themes. The subsequent phase of analysis involved the construction of hierarchies of themes and generating thematic maps. This process succeeded by developing a concise transcript delineating both sub-themes and themes. Subsequently, all researchers examined how each theme manifested within a particular target group they had interviewed. To ensure coherence in data analysis, iterative discussions transpired between the researchers. These discussions were conducted to reach a consensus on any inconsistencies, thereby increasing the overall quality of the study. As a concluding step, the themes and sub-themes were concisely summarised. The presented results follow the identified themes and sub-themes supported by interview extracts and tables in the appendices. Since the causes and solutions of the teacher shortage are related, we present the results of the two research questions together, presenting first the causes of the shortage and then the solutions proposed.

The shortage problem was attributed to different pull and push factors, such as the attractiveness and status of teaching, governance and legislative aspects, school governors’ competencies, teacher preparation, workload, salaries and motivation packages, and school conditions. Participants acknowledged high competition in the labour market for the potential workforce that relates to the democratic changes (Ageing Europe 2020) and proposed several solutions, including fostering positive communication about the teaching profession, state-level long-term planning and evidence-based decision-making, improving the competencies of school governors, enhancing teacher preparation, reducing teacher workload, offering monetary incentives and fostering school leadership and organisational culture. These findings are largely in line with previous studies (e.g. Amitai and Van Houtte 2022; Heffernan et al. 2022; Podolsky et al. 2016), but they also indicate new perspectives in understanding the shortage problem. For example, when considering the identified problems and solutions across different themes, it becomes evident that the problems were not always matched by the proposed solutions, and vice versa. For instance, various factors pulling potential candidates and teachers out of the profession, identified under the theme of the attractiveness and status of the teaching profession, were not always targeted with solutions. Conversely, in some themes, such as teacher preparation, there were more suggestions proposed relative to the identified problems. These findings highlight the need for further dialogue among different target groups and joint reflection on research evidence regarding the influence and relative weight of factors related to teacher retention and shortages and their practical applications (e.g. Casely-Hayford et al. 2022; Nguyen et al. 2020).

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