This paper presents findings from two studies examining issues of teacher supply in the UK and internationally. Recent research has demonstrated that there are significant and worsening teacher shortages in many countries around the world (Craig et al., 2023; Lindqvist et al., 2022; Ovenden-Hope and Passy, 2020; Sutcher et al., 2019). A lack of teachers is a significant problem for national education systems as the shortage affects the quality and nature of teaching and learning in schools. Given that teachers are commonly understood to be the most important school-level factor for improving student achievement (Hattie, 2018), a shortage of skilled teachers can have a negative impact on young people’s academic and lifelong outcomes, and on the quality of education provision across the system (Chetty et al., 2014; Goldhaber et al., 2018).

Our studies have sought to understand varying conceptions of teacher shortage in different contexts and the factors that influence teacher supply over time (Morris et al., 2021; See, 2022). Across our two projects, we have set out to respond to the following sets of questions:

• What policy and practice interventions have been employed to address teacher shortage internationally? To what extent have they been effective? Which approaches offer promise for tackling teacher shortages in different contexts?
• What are the determinants of teacher shortages? How do they differ over time and place, and how can they be measured?
• What are the contextual/background factors (e.g.
  culture, politics, performance of the economy, teacher employment structure and working environment) that influence teacher demand and supply? How are these similar or different for countries that experience teacher shortages and those that do not?  
• What are the factors which influence graduates to consider or reject teaching as a career option? What are the opportunities and barriers for graduates with interests and intentions in pursuing teaching?

The current study takes an international comparative approach to examine the economic, educational, social, cultural and political factors which potentially influence demand and supply between different countries. The project uses an innovative multi-methods approach, including completion of systematic reviews, analysis of large-scale, international secondary data (such as the OECD’s Teaching and Learning International Survey (TALIS) and policy documents). This has fed in to a qualitative comparative approach (QCA), to examine patterns across countries and diversity in the different country cases. Furthermore, we have identified a number of specific case study countries (n=10) for further investigation. Here, we have conducted interviews with relevant stakeholders (policymakers, sector leaders, teacher educators and practitioners) and analysed country-specific policies and existing national-level workforce data (where available).

The paper will share findings from the secondary data analysis and case study research for the UK and the Scandinavian countries which are included within the study. Drawing from across our datasets, we present an overview of the teacher supply contexts for these countries (Finland, Norway, Sweden and UK) and identify key areas of similarity and difference. We also present key factors or system-level characteristics that are connected to better or worse teacher supply outcomes. Our findings show that shortages appear in countries where the employment rate for humanities and arts graduates is high, and where behaviour/discipline in schools is weak. In addition, we identity shortages in countries where much of the population lives in towns (not cities or villages) and much of the teacher workforce is young (aged less than 30), or both (Gorard et al., 2024). Our case study findings provide further insights into significant influencing factors such as teacher education and professional development, salaries and financial support, the status of teaching, and working conditions.

Our first study, a large-scale analysis of teacher shortage and supply in the UK included a robust and international systematic review, analysis of a range of national-level datasets (including from the School Workforce Census, the Department for Education, the National College for Teaching and Leadership (NCTL) and the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA)) as well as a national survey of university students (responses n= 4,469) (Gorard et al., 2023; See et al., 2020). The current ongoing study takes an international comparative approach to examine the economic, educational, social, cultural and political factors which potentially influence demand and supply between different countries. The project uses an innovative multi-methods approach, including completion of structured systematic reviews, analysis of large-scale, international secondary data (such as the OECD’s Teaching and Learning International Survey (TALIS) and policy documents). This has fed in to a qualitative comparative approach (QCA), to examine patterns across countries and diversity in the different country cases. Furthermore, we have identified a number of specific case study countries (n=10) for further investigation. Here, we have conducted interviews with relevant stakeholders (policymakers, sector leaders, teacher educators and practitioners) and analysed country-specific policies and existing national-level workforce data (where available).

The paper will share findings from the secondary data analysis and case study research for the UK and the Scandinavian countries which are included within the study. Drawing from across our datasets, we present an overview of the teacher supply contexts for these countries (Finland, Norway, Sweden and UK) and identify key areas of similarity and difference. We also present key factors or system-level characteristics that are connected to better or worse teacher supply outcomes. Our findings show that shortages appear in countries where the employment rate for humanities and arts graduates is high, and where behaviour/discipline in schools is weak. In addition, we identity shortages in countries where much of the population lives in towns (not cities or villages) and much of the teacher workforce is young (aged less than 30), or both (Gorard et al., 2024). Our case study findings provide further insights into significant influencing factors such as teacher education and professional development, salaries and financial support, the status of teaching, and working conditions (Morris et al., 2024). Implications for policy, practice and future research will be shared, and we would particularly welcome further insights regarding the included Nordic nations and other European contexts.

•Chetty, R., Friedman, J. N., and Rockoff, J.E. (2014). Measuring the impacts of teachers II: Teacher value-added and student outcomes in adulthood. American Economic Review, 104, 2633-2679. •Craig, C.J., Hill-Jackson, V. and Kwok, A., 2023. Teacher Shortages: What Are We Short Of?. Journal of Teacher Education, 74(3), pp.209-213. •Goldhaber, D., Theobald, R. and Fumia, D., 2018. Teacher Quality Gaps and Student Outcomes: Assessing the Association between Teacher Assignments and Student Math Test Scores and High School Course Taking. Working Paper 185. National Center for Analysis of Longitudinal Data in Education Research (CALDER). •Gorard, S., Ventista, O., Morris, R. and See, B.H., 2023. Who wants to be a teacher? Findings from a survey of undergraduates in England. Educational Studies, 49(6), pp.914-936. •Gorard, S., Ledger, M., See, B.H. and Morris, R., 2024. What are the key predictors of international teacher shortages?. Research Papers in Education, pp.1-28. •Hattie, J. (2018) Hattie Ranking: 252 Influences And Effect Sizes Related To Student Achievement, Visible Learning https://visible-learning.org/hattie-ranking-influences-effect-sizes-learning-achievement/ •Lindqvist, M.H., 2022. Teacher shortage in Sweden: time to take action?. Education in the North. Available: https://aura.abdn.ac.uk/bitstream/handle/2164/19917/Lindqvist_EITN_Teacher_Shortage_In_VOR.pdf?sequence=1 •Morris, R., See, B.H. and Gorard, S., 2021. Teacher shortage in England: new evidence for understanding and addressing current challenges. Impact: Journal of the Chartered College of Teaching, 11, pp.64-67. •Morris, R., See, B.H., Gorard, S., and Ledger, M. (2024) Understanding the complex determinants of teacher shortage around the world, Paper presented at the Nordic Education Research Association Conference: Malmo, Sweden – March 2024. •Ovenden-Hope, T. and Passy, R. eds., 2020. Exploring teacher recruitment and retention: Contextual challenges from international perspectives. Routledge. •See, B.H., Morris, R., Gorard, S. and El Soufi, N., 2020. What works in attracting and retaining teachers in challenging schools and areas?. Oxford Review of Education, 46(6), pp.678-697. •See, B.H. (2022) Comparative analysis of teacher policies across international education systems to understand the complex factors shaping teacher demand and supply, Available: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FW003074%2F1 •Sutcher, L., Darling-Hammond, L. and Carver-Thomas, D., 2019. Understanding teacher shortages: An analysis of teacher supply and demand in the United States. Education Policy Analysis Archives, 27(35).