Spain's Organic Law 3/2022 introduces significant reforms to the VET system, aiming to modernise programs to align with labor market demands. It promotes a flexible, accessible model fostering lifelong learning, employability, professional qualifications, and job integration. Key principles include equity, inclusion, and gender equality. A major innovation is the mandatory dual training (Dual VET), distinguishing general (General Dual VET- school-based training -25%-35%-with limited company involvement) and intensive (Intensive Dual VET-emphasises workplace training (50%-70%) and uses apprenticeship contracts). The law adheres to EQAVET quality standards, prioritizing academic performance and dropout rates as core indicators. It also emphasizes collaboration between educational institutions and companies, ensuring continuous content updates and systematic evaluation to enhance program outcomes (Council of European Union, 2020).

In this context, it is particularly relevant to develop a model for analysing the quality of Dual VET to identify areas for improvement and formulate proposals aimed at both the prevention of drop-out and the generalisation and transfer of practices that favour successful pathways. in Intensive Dual VET.

Dropout processes in Dual VET

While the decision to dropout ultimately lies with students, various factors—both prior to enrollment and during training—contribute to this process (Böhn & Deutscher, 2022; Bosset et al., 2022; Findeisen et al., 2022; Krötz & Deutscher, 2021, 2022; Krötz, 2024; Schmid, 2017). Dropping out results from the interaction of these factors over time and is subjectively perceived and interpreted by each individual (Krötz & Deutscher, 2022).

Pre-enrollment factors significantly influence the transition to VET and dropout processes. Low academic performance (Böhn & Deutscher, 2022; Bosset et al., 2022; Michaelis & Richter, 2022), socioeconomic status, parental education levels (Michaelis & Richter, 2022), and immigrant status (Böhn & Deutscher, 2022; Michaelis & Richter, 2022) directly impact premature termination of training contracts. Additionally, limited availability of training places shapes students’ choices, with not pursuing their desired program being a strong predictor of dropout (Bosset et al., 2022; Findeisen et al., 2022; Michaelis & Richter, 2022). Inadequate academic and career guidance that fails to provide realistic information about labor market opportunities and employment conditions can also demotivate students when their career prospects differ from expectations, increasing dropout risks (Böhn & Deutscher, 2022; Cedefop, 2016; de Graaf & van Zenderen, 2013; Psifidou et al., 2021).

Training quality, both at educational institutions and within companies, is a critical determinant of dropout (Krötz & Deutscher, 2022). Adverse workplace conditions—such as excessive workload, poor organizational climate, inadequate training engagement by employers, limited task diversity, and task misalignment with the profession—are strong predictors of dropout (Bosset et al., 2022; Krötz & Deutscher, 2021). Additionally, the quality of relationships with teachers and peers, the perceived utility of acquired knowledge, and its applicability in the workplace strongly influence retention (Böhn & Deutscher, 2022; Fix et al., 2019; Krötz & Deutscher, 2021).

Research objectives

Based on this theoretical framework, the project Completion and Dropout Pathways in Intensive Dual VET: An Empirical Approach and Recommendations (PID2023-149074OB-I00), founded by de Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (Government of Spain), was designed for a period of four years. This research has two main objectives: to analyse and evaluate the factors and processes influencing completion and dropout in Intensive Dual VET; and to develop, disseminate, and transfer proposals aimed at preventing dropout and fostering educational success.

To achieve the first objective, the project monitors students throughout their two-year training. It examines student profiles, completion and dropout rates, and contributing factors, while categorizing pathways within this training model.

This communication presents the project’s initial findings, focusing on defining the student profile, analyzing pre-enrollment factors, and examining their relationship with students’ intention to continue or leave training.

A longitudinal study using questionnaires was conducted on the student pathways of the Intensive Dual VET in the Balearic Islands, involving 450 students who began their training in the 2024-25 academic year. The questionnaire aimed to define student profiles across several key dimensions. It first collected educational and training data, such as current education level (Intermediate or High VET), specialisation (e.g., Culinary Arts, Finance), entry pathways (e.g., secondary education, exams, or prior VET), and academic history (e.g., course repetitions). Second, sociodemographic details were gathered, including gender, age, birthplace, residence duration, and family situation (e.g., living with parents or dependents). Third, the questionnaire explored motivations and expectations, focusing on why students chose their specialisation and the Dual VET modality (e.g., proximity, professional requirements, personal interest), as well as career and further education plans. Fourth, it assessed satisfaction with current and past studies, evaluating the quality of training, its alignment with personal goals, and relationships with peers and instructors. Fifth, it examined potential dropout or change factors, asking about intentions to leave or switch studies and the reasons (e.g., economic, academic, or personal barriers). Sixth, it gathered information on the employment and domestic situation, such as current job relevance to studies and weekly time spent working or caregiving. Seventh, health and well-being were assessed, including health status, illnesses, addictions, and financial challenges. The questionnaire also addressed family characteristics, such as parents' birthplace, education level, and employment status. Lastly, it explored the influence of family, friends, teachers, or counselors on students’ choices. Data analysis was conducted using descriptive statistics, contingency tables, and regression analyses to understand completion and dropout patterns. MS Excel and STATA were the tools used for this quantitative analysis. The survey was administered online from December 2024 to January 2025, following ethical guidelines, with informed consent and strict data confidentiality measures.

Expected Outcomes This study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing completion and dropout in Intensive Dual Vocational Education and Training (VET) in Spain, with a particular focus on the Balearic Islands. The research is expected to produce several key insights. Firstly, it will identify the profiles of students entering Intensive Dual VET, including their sociodemographic characteristics, educational backgrounds, motivations, and expectations. These findings will help define the types of students most likely to complete or drop out of the programme. Secondly, the research will examine the pre-enrolment and training-related factors that influence dropout rates. These include academic performance, socioeconomic status, family education levels, employment conditions, and the quality of training at both educational institutions and companies. The study will assess how these factors interact to shape students’ experiences and decisions to either persist or leave. Thirdly, the study will map and categorise pathways within Intensive Dual VET, providing a typology of student trajectories based on their engagement, satisfaction, and outcomes. Finally, the project will develop actionable proposals to prevent dropout and promote success, focusing on improving training quality, fostering supportive relationships, and enhancing academic and career guidance. The findings will be disseminated to inform educational policies and institutional practices.

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