Dual vocational education and training (VET) continues to serve as a central pathway to employment in Germany, with over 50% of young people entering VET (BiBB 2024; OECD 2016). The German VET system is characterized by its occupation-specific nature, where the vocational training closely aligns with the tasks and positions of subsequent employment (Müller, Shavit 1998). While this system has effectively supported the supply of skilled workers, it has also been critiqued for its limited adaptability to changing labour market conditions. At the individual level, horizontal mobility, whereby individuals move to jobs outside their trained occupation, is one way of adapting. Although horizontal mobility has been associated with potential loss of human capital, it also offers individuals greater flexibility and can help address skill shortages at the societal level.   

Since the 1980s, the dual VET system has evolved to meet the needs of a knowledge-based economy, expanding beyond its manufacturing and handicraft origins (Baethge, Baethge-Kinsky 1998). Dual training programs vary in structure, with training durations ranging from 2 to 3.5 years. Even for programs of the same length, the time spent on acquiring manual skills, technical knowledge, or process-oriented learning can differ significantly. Empirical research consistently shows that the level of vocational qualification impacts labour market outcomes (Boockman, Steffes 2010; Dütsch, Struck 2016; Hillmert 2017). However, the influence of training content— in particularly —on employment and mobility outcomes remains to be better understood. This study examines how different forms of occupational knowledge affect horizontal occupational mobility on the labour market after successful graduation.   

In this study, we introduce a novel classification of occupational knowledge, distinguishing between three categories: (1) manual skills, which encompass acquired dexterity, techniques, or routines necessary for performing specific tasks; (2) technical knowledge, which refers to job-specific material science and product-related expertise; and (3) process-oriented knowledge, which involves an understanding of general work processes beyond one’s immediate tasks, extending to broader operational and business processes. We hypothesize that process-oriented knowledge promotes horizontal mobility by providing flexibility that facilitates occupational transitions and subsequent occupational adjustments to ensure employability. In contrast, we expect that occupations that focus on manual skills or technical knowledge to be associated with less horizontal mobility, as these training occupations are likely to tie individuals more closely to specific occupational contexts.   

To test these hypotheses, we employ data from the National Educational Panel Study’s Starting Cohort 4 (SC4), which includes detailed employment histories of individuals who completed dual training (Blossfeld, Roßbach 2019). Further, we systematically coded the German dual training regulations, classifying occupational knowledge into the three categories—manual skills, technical knowledge, and process-oriented knowledge. These classifications are then matched to the latest completed training occupations of individuals. Using event history analysis, we explore the extent to which the proportion of each form of knowledge influences horizontal mobility. We define horizontal mobility when the training occupation differs from an occupation in a subsequent employment episode. We consider differences between training and employment occupation on a broader and more granular occupational level.   

Our results show that differences in horizontal mobility can largely be explained by differences in the curricula of dual training programmes. Occupations that emphasise process-oriented knowledge offer greater flexibility, allowing employees to adapt more easily to changes in the labour market. While occupations that focus on technical knowledge or manual skills tend to reduce horizontal mobility, the value of these forms of training should not be disregarded, as they may be more closely linked to other labour market outcomes that warrant further investigation in future research.   

To examine the impact of the forms of occupational knowledge acquired during dual training on horizontal mobility within the labour market, we draw on the Starting Cohort 4 (SC4) of the National Educational Panel Study (NEPS). The NEPS is a comprehensive longitudinal study conducted in Germany, which tracks both educational and employment trajectories. The data includes a wide range of individual characteristics, enabling us to account for selection effects. The SC4 is based on a representative sample of ninth-grade students from schools across Germany, initially surveyed in 2010 (NEPS Network 2024), with bi-annual to annual follow-up interviews available through to 2022. We only include individuals who completed dual vocational training during the observation period and who did not experience vertical mobility, meaning they did not change in their employment status. The final analysis sample consists of 1,606 individuals.  To categorize the knowledge forms acquired during vocational training, we analysed the training regulations for the 50 most frequently selected occupations. These regulations, issued by the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, provide detailed outlines of training content, including time allocations for each component. The content was classified into three categories: process-oriented knowledge, technical knowledge, and manual skills. A multi-stage coding process ensured high reliability and transparency, with data coded independently by three coders.  In this way, each occupation is assigned a specific time value for the respective categories, which is then linked to the person’s first completed vocational training using the 5-digit German Classification of Occupations (KldB). Horizontal mobility was defined as a change in the 3-digit KldB code between training and subsequent employment occupations. Broader horizontal changes are examined at the level of 14 occupational segments (Matthes et al. 2015). The primary independent variables are the forms of knowledge acquired during dual vocational training, measured in hours per week. Due to multicollinearity between knowledge categories, separate models are estimated for each form of occupational knowledge.  We apply event history analysis to examine events over time and identify factors influencing the duration until occupational mobility occurs. Each episode begins with the completion of dual vocational training and ends with the start of an employment episode. To estimate the timing of occupational mobility, we use a Cox proportional hazards model. Given that multiple employment episodes may occur, the data are structured in a multi-episode format.  

This study examines how different forms of knowledge acquired during vocational training influence occupational mobility in the first years of entering the German labour market. Dual vocational training curricula vary considerably in the form of knowledge they impart, with an emphasis placed on manual skills, technical or process-oriented knowledge. As a result, graduates possess different sets of transferable skills, which may influence their ability to navigate through changing labour market conditions without a corresponding loss of human capital.   In line with our hypotheses, process-oriented knowledge enhances horizontal mobility due to its relative independence from specific occupational contexts. This form of knowledge can be a critical factor of occupational adaptability, serving as a potentially effective tool for preparing dual-track trainees to respond to the evolving demands of the labour market. Conversely, technical knowledge and manual skills are associated with reduced horizontal mobility, as they tend to anchor individuals in specific occupations, reducing flexibility. This study contributes to the literature in several ways. First, it extends research on the determinants of occupational mobility by examining the characteristics of vocational training curricula (Damelang et al. 2015; Menze 2017; Vicari, Unger 2020). Second, it challenges the claim that the dual training system is inherently inflexible compared to the increasingly dominant academic system, by showing that certain VET programmes indeed exhibit considerable flexibility. Finally, it introduces a novel conceptualisation of occupational knowledge that provides insights into the identification of flexible vocational training occupations, thereby enhancing existing occupational classifications used in the analysis of labour market trajectories.  

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