This paper examines empirical evidence from higher education research on student dropout intentions. Dropping out from university is associated with high individual and societal costs, a lack of innovation, a shortage of skilled workers, and a loss of competitiveness and diversity (Nairz-Wirth/Feldmann 2018; Thaler/Unger 2014). In addition, one of the European Union's goals is to achieve greater equality of educational opportunity – a goal that depends in part on reducing the number of students who drop out from university (Vossensteyn et al. 2015). With European universities already reporting high dropout rates within their specific systems (DAAD 2021, Vossensteyn et al. 2015), universities are under increasing pressure to implement measures to prevent student attrition. In this context, dropout intentions can be regarded as an early warning indicator, thus making it a relevant factor in empirical research and the design of effective prevention and intervention strategies (Deuer/Wild 2018).

Within the Austrian context, the average rate of attrition among bachelor’s students is approximately 30% (with respect to bachelor’s programs commencing at public universities during the winter semester 2016/17). It is important to note that most of the students dropping out from university appear to do so during the first two semesters of study (approximately 20%) (Haag et al. 2024). Consequently, it is evident that the transition to higher education represents a critical period for students, and a challenge for the development of their academic habitus. Addressing the issue at early stages, transition management and the strengthening of students’ resilience resources as part of their habitus development are crucial for their future academic and professional success (Frisby et al. 2020; Lane 2020). Moreover, the development of resilience resources and academic success is favored by the existence and utilization of social networks at the university (social capital). The development of these networks during the transition to higher education poses another significant challenge for students (Berndt/Felix 2020; Hofmann et al. 2020). These influencing factors – including habitus development and building social networks – have been deeply challenged during the corona pandemic (e.g., distance learning, social isolation), which has increased their relevance in the context of higher education research on student attrition in recent years.

Current surveys of the higher education sector concerning examination activity and academic success indicate that the following NTS groups are particularly vulnerable to dropping out or have an elevated need for support: older students (i.e., those over the age of 25); students with increased employment or care responsibilities; and students from educationally disadvantaged backgrounds (i.e., first-generation students) (Thaler et al. 2021; Hauschildt et al. 2024; Nairz-Wirth/Feldmann 2018). In recent decades, the number of these NTS groups in Austria has grown significantly due to an expansion of the higher education sector, socio-demographic developments, changing requirements for the economic competitiveness and the labor market (Bock-Schappelwein et al. 2012; Unger et al. 2020).

The present paper employs a Bourdieu framework, integrating psychological-individual and sociological-institutional approaches (Heublein/Wolter 2011), to explore the role and interaction of transition management experiences, resilience (both as part of an academic habitus), and social networks (in terms of peers, university staff, and study groups) in relation to dropout intentions over time. Furthermore, different characteristics of non-traditional students (Isensee/Wolter 2017; Chung et al. 2014) are considered within the analysis.

The present analysis employs a Bourdieu framework, integrating psychological-individual and sociological-institutional approaches (Heublein/Wolter 2011), to explore the role and interaction of transition management experiences, resilience (both as part of an academic habitus), and social networks (in terms of peers, university staff, and study groups) in relation to dropout intentions over time. In addition, different characteristics of non-traditional students (Isensee/Wolter 2017; Chung et al. 2014) are considered within the analysis. A two-year panel survey (2022-2023) was conducted among all bachelor’s students in economics and social sciences at an Austrian public university. The students were contacted via mail in 2022. Initially, a total of 1,502 students participated in the survey, and 1,000 of them completed the questionnaire, allowing for analysis of their responses (n = 1,000). In a subsequent round, these students were invited to re-participate in the survey in 2023. The survey results were then analyzed using various regression models for panel analysis, including pooled and random effects models, to identify significant effects over time.

The findings (based on various panel models: random effects, pooled) indicate that strong social networks (in relation to other peers), individual resilience, and smooth transition to university have a preventive effect on the intention to drop out. Furthermore, female students show a different perception of their interactions with lecturers and other university staff compared to male students, particularly in relation to their intentions to withdraw from their studies. Hardly surprising, older students, students with working or caring obligations, and students with mental or physical limitations have a higher risk of having dropout intentions. Building on previous findings in higher education research, the results of the present study suggest that early preparation for studying, active management of the transition process by the institution, support for building students' resilience, and promotion of social networks at the institution can prevent dropout intentions and contribute to reducing dropout rates among university students in the long run. These findings are of particular relevance to researchers and higher education policymakers seeking to implement early-stage prevention strategies to address university dropout rates.

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