Recent results from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2022 reveal a decline in mathematics performance across Nordic countries. Denmark scored 489, Finland 484, Sweden 482 and Norway 468, all in comparison to the OECD average of 472. These figures raise important concerns regarding shifts in educational quality, student engagement, and the effectiveness of current policy initiatives in the region.

Academic achievement is shaped by a complex interplay of psychological and social factors. Among these, disparities in performance between students with and without immigrant backgrounds are particularly pronounced in Finland and Sweden, even before adjusting for socioeconomic background (OECD, 2023). This study investigates the interrelationships between students’ sense of belonging, academic resilience, and mathematics achievement, with a particular focus on differences across immigration background and gender in the Nordic context.

The study is grounded in the resilience framework from developmental psychology (Masten, 2015; Martin & Marsh, 2008), which emphasises positive academic outcomes despite adversity. In this context, academic resilience is defined as the ability of socioeconomically disadvantaged students to attain high achievement. A strong sense of belonging, in other words, feeling accepted and valued within the school environment, has also been identified as a vital contributor to students’ motivation and engagement (Goodenow & Grady, 1993; Osterman, 2000), both of which are essential components of resilience and academic success.

By integrating these constructs, the study aims to explore whether immigrant students experience lower levels of belonging and how that may relate to their academic resilience and performance. This research fills an important gap in understanding how school belonging and resilience mechanisms contribute to achievement outcomes across student subgroups. It contributes to broader European educational research by highlighting equity and integration challenges and offering implications for inclusive and responsive educational practices in the Nordic region.

This quantitative study will utilise PISA 2022 data from the four Nordic countries. Academic resilience will be operationalised by identifying students in the bottom 25% of the socioeconomic distribution within each country who score in the top 25% in mathematics achievement—a widely accepted approach in international research (OECD, 2018; Agasisti et al., 2021). Immigration status will be classified based on how often the student speaks the language of the test at home. The sense of belonging will be measured using six survey items from the PISA student questionnaire, reflecting students’ social and emotional connection to their school. Mathematics achievement will be represented using PISA’s plausible values for mathematical literacy. Statistical analyses will include descriptive and inferential comparisons across gender and immigration background, as well as logistic regression or multilevel modelling to examine predictors of academic resilience and the role of sense of belonging.

This study is intended to undercover the patterns whereby immigrant students, particularly those from socioeconomically disadvantaged backgrounds, report lower levels of belonging, which may in turn affect their likelihood of being classified as academically resilient. Gender differences are also expected: for example, immigrant girls may experience lower belonging but still exhibit higher resilience than their male peers, or vice versa. The study will offer a deeper understanding of how school belonging supports resilience and achievement among diverse student populations. These findings are expected to inform policy and practice aimed at strengthening educational inclusion and equity, helping to foster supportive learning environments that enable all students, regardless of background or gender, to succeed.

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