This paper investigates the impact of China’s 1983 expansion of secondary vocational education on human capital accumulation, educational choices, and long-term socio-economic outcomes. It focuses on how the policy influenced families with varying levels of economic, social, and cultural capital, shaping educational attainment, occupational status, and social mobility. The study aims to assess the policy’s effects on educational decisions, evaluate its long-term implications for career and family outcomes, and analyze the role of family capital in these processes, while highlighting the tension between efficiency and fairness in education policy.

Existing literature on the factors influencing family educational decisions has paid relatively little attention to institutional and policy contexts. In particular, research on the expansion of secondary vocational education—a reform that significantly impacted a generation—has primarily focused on macro-level phenomena, with fewer studies providing quantitative analyses from the micro-level perspectives of households and individuals. Furthermore, much of the literature examines the influence of family background and capital on educational decisions from a sociological standpoint, with fewer studies offering detailed economic analyses and empirical support. This paper aims to analyze the outcomes of the expansion of secondary vocational education within the framework of fairness and efficiency.

The conceptual framework categorizes families into three groups—low, medium, and high capital—predicting that families with medium or lower capital were more likely to pursue vocational education post-expansion, whereas higher-capital families would prioritize academic education to maintain their competitive edge. Using data from the China General Social Survey (CGSS) from 2008 to 2018, the study applies a Generalized Cohort Difference-in-Differences model to compare individuals affected by the policy with those who were not. Heterogeneity analyses explore variations based on family background, gender, and household registration (rural vs. urban), while robustness checks, including placebo tests and alternative regression models, ensure the reliability of findings.

Results indicate that the expansion increased overall educational attainment, leading to higher participation in vocational education and tertiary education. However, long-term effects were mixed: while the reform improved educational mobility, it did not significantly enhance occupational status or marriage and fertility decisions. This reflects the “locking effect” of vocational education, where graduates often find themselves in fixed professions with limited upward mobility. The findings underscore the persistent challenge of achieving both efficiency and fairness—while children from disadvantaged backgrounds gained more access to education, they continued to face barriers in translating educational gains into long-term socio-economic success.

The contributions of this paper are threefold. First, it provides a novel empirical analysis of an underexplored but pivotal policy shift in China’s educational history, offering insights distinct from the well-documented higher education expansion. Second, it advances the theoretical discussion on how family capital shapes educational decision-making by integrating sociological and economic perspectives. Third, it introduces a policy evaluation framework that accounts for both short-term educational attainment and long-term socio-economic outcomes, thereby informing future discussions on vocational education reform.

Beyond China, these insights are highly relevant to the European and international context, where vocational education is often seen as a means of reducing inequality and enhancing labor market outcomes. The study highlights the need for policies that not only expand access to vocational education but also ensure pathways for career advancement and social mobility. Policy recommendations include targeted support for families with weaker economic, social, and cultural capital, as well as initiatives to help students convert educational achievements into career opportunities and income gains. By addressing these challenges, the study contributes to the global discourse on educational equity and efficiency, advocating for policies that promote both access to education and sustained socio-economic mobility.

This study combines theoretical and empirical analysis. For the theoretical part, I categorizes families into three types based on their levels of economic, social, and cultural capital (low, medium, and high), and predicts how each type would respond to the vocational education expansion. The framework suggests that: Type A families (low capital) would shift from discontinuing education after junior high to pursuing vocational education post-expansion.Type B families (medium capital) would be more likely to choose vocational education over general education, especially if they perceive it as a safer path to employment. Type C families (high capital) would be less affected by the expansion, but some may encourage their children to pursue higher education to maintain their competitive advantage. For the empirical part, the study uses data from the China General Social Survey (CGSS) spanning 2008 to 2018 and employs a Generalized Cohort Difference-in-Differences (GCDID) model to analyze the impact of the 1983 vocational education expansion. The DID model allows the researchers to compare the educational and socio-economic outcomes of individuals who were affected by the policy (those graduating from junior high school after 1983) with those who were not. The study also conducts heterogeneity analyses to examine how the effects of the policy vary across different family backgrounds, genders, and household registration statuses (rural vs. urban). Additionally, the study performs robustness checks to ensure the reliability of the findings, including changing the regression model, adjusting the definition of junior high school graduation years, and conducting placebo tests.

The study finds that (1) the expansion of secondary vocational education led to an overall increase in educational attainment; (2) the policy had a significant impact on educational decisions, with more individuals choosing vocational education and higher education post-expansion;(3) the long-term effects of vocational education were mixed: while it improved educational mobility, it did not significantly enhance occupational status or marriage and fertility decisions.The study highlights the "locking effect" of vocational education, where graduates often end up in fixed professions with limited upward mobility. The findings also suggest a tension between efficiency and fairness, as children from disadvantaged backgrounds were able to improve their educational attainment but still faced challenges in achieving long-term socio-economic goals. The theoretical analysis and empirical results of this study suggest that in formulating educational policies to guide human capital accumulation, it is essential to balance "quantity" and "quality," as well as "efficiency" and "fairness." It also underscore the importance of balancing the expansion of educational opportunities with efforts to address the long-term development challenges faced by disadvantaged groups. Specific policies and programs, such as financial aid and training programs, should be implemented to provide targeted support to families with weaker economic, social, and cultural capital. Special attention should also be given to the educational barriers faced by female students from disadvantaged families, thus enhancing the focus on the interests of relatively disadvantaged groups and promoting the equitable and effective distribution of high-quality educational resources. Moreover, to ensure that policies have a sustained impact over the long term, the government should provide continuous support, such as career planning guidance, to enable students from relatively weaker family backgrounds to translate educational achievements into future economic income, social status, and marital and fertility outcomes.

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