In December 2023, the OECD announced the results of PISA-2022 (Programme for International Student Assessment), which evaluates the knowledge and skills of 15-year-old students in mathematical, reading, and science literacy. According to the results, 19,769 15-year-olds from Kazakhstan participated in PISA-2022, placing the country 46th in mathematics, 49th in science, and 61st in reading out of 81 countries (OECD, 2023). Kazakhstan’s mean PISA score is statistically comparable to Greece, Romania, and Mongolia (PISA, 2023). While Kazakhstan has maintained growth in PISA results since 2008, 64% of Kazakh schoolchildren demonstrated only first-level reading skills (OECD average: 26%), while 50% performed at only the first level of mathematical literacy (OECD: 31%). Similarly, 45% of Kazakh students showed only basic science literacy (OECD: 24%).

In addition, national assessments also indicate concerns regarding functional literacy. The National Assessment of Educational Achievements (NAE, 2023) reports a decline in ninth-grade performance, with average scores dropping from 47.3 in 2022 to 36.8 in 2023 (out of 75 possible points). The scales used in 2022 and 2023 national assessments were designed to be comparable (NAE, 2023), ensuring that reported score declines accurately reflect changes in student achievement.  Furthermore, data from the National Educational Database of Kazakhstan (NED, 2023) shows that 39% of students in grades 8-9 are classified as low achievers, meaning they receive predominantly “satisfactory” or “failing” final grades across all subjects.

This study aims to identify predictors influencing the academic performance of students in grades 8-9. The theoretical foundation draws from motivation theories (Elliot, 1997, 1999), self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 2000; Ryan & Deci, 2002), social learning theory (Bandura, 1977, 1986), and ecological systems theory (Bronfenbrenner, 1994). Bronfenbrenner’s ecological model is particularly relevant, as it integrates multilevel interactions between students, their learning environments, and broader social conditions that shape academic achievement.

This predominantly quantitative study utilized a structured questionnaire developed in Kazakh and Russian based on a comprehensive literature review and findings from the qualitative case study “Low-performing students: diagnosis, risk factors, support” (Tazabek, Tursunbayeva, & Chsherbakov, 2022). The questionnaire was informed by a meta-analysis of 49 quantitative studies conducted between 1992 and 2019, which identified 120 significant relationships between academic performance and personal, social, and educational factors (Boström & Bostedt, 2020; Herndon & Bembenutty, 2017; Låftman et al., 2013; Mbaluka, 2017). This meta-analysis served as the basis for selecting variables measuring self-discipline, stress tolerance, social interactions, and educational motivation. After piloting the questionnaire in two urban schools, redundant and statistically insignificant items were removed. The final survey was administered in 107 schools across 17 regions of Kazakhstan and three major cities (Astana, Almaty, Shymkent) using stratified random sampling to ensure representativeness. In October 2023, 20,567 students (46.4% male, 53.6% female; 77.3% urban, 22.7% rural) participated. The data was analyzed using SPSS with multiple tests to verify validity and reliability. Cronbach’s Alpha (α = 0.725) confirmed internal consistency. Principal components analysis identified 23 components, with the Kaiser-Mayer-Olkin (KMO) measure at 0.936, indicating a highly adequate sample. Spearman correlation coefficients were computed to determine each predictor’s connection to academic performance, and word reduction models were applied to refine predictive components.

Initial analysis revealed a strong correlation between students' academic performance and factors such as interest in studying, self-discipline, stress resistance, and extracurricular involvement (Boström & Bostedt, 2020; Herndon & Bembenutty, 2017; Låftman et al., 2013). Low-achieving students often displayed reduced self-regulation and resilience, emphasizing the role of teachers as mentors in developing study habits and coping strategies. Regional analysis showed variation in the impact of teacher-student relationships, stress resistance, and school climate on academic outcomes. Gender-based findings indicated that female students were more susceptible to external academic pressures, supporting prior research that highlights differential social expectations and stress responses among boys and girls (Bücker et al., 2018; Yuen & Wu, 2024). This study has international relevance, particularly for European and post-Soviet educational systems, by identifying common predictors of academic success and highlighting the need for multi-level interventions. Future research should further explore longitudinal trends in student performance and develop intervention models tailored to specific demographic and educational contexts.

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