In the United Kingdom (UK), as in other countries, policies to expand higher education (HE) have emphasised the importance of widening participation by under-represented groups, but researchers question the effects of expansion and competition (Shavit et al 2007). Theories of ‘effectively maintained inequality’ predict that, as participation among advantaged groups approaches saturation, inequalities will become manifested in the different institutions or programmes in which people participate rather than in the difference between participation and non-participation (Lucas 2001). This paper explores changes over the period 1996 to 2010 in the differentiation of higher education institutions and subject programmes in the UK, the “choices” of non-traditional students, and the relative success of their applications   The paper presents emerging findings from a research project of the same name that is analysing administrative data on six cohorts of applicants to full-time undergraduate courses in UK institutions between 1996 and 2010. The project explores differentiation both in terms of pre-existing status hierarchies and the social, demographic and educational characteristics of applicants and entrants. We ask whether existing status hierarchies have been eroded, reinforced or changed by expansion and widening participation.  We ask:   ¨           To what extent do different types of institutions and subject programmes attract applicants and entrants with different characteristics, and how has this pattern of differentiation varied over time? ¨           What pattern of institutional differentiation is reflected in the characteristics of applicants or entrants to each institution, and how has this pattern of differentiation varied over time? ¨           How successful are different types of applicants in gaining entry to at least one of their chosen higher education courses? How have their success rates varied over the period 1996-2010? Our research questions reflect two approaches to the analysis of institutional differentiation. The first approach takes existing institutional categories and explores their changing correlation with the social-demographic and educational characteristics of applicants and entrants. Our second approach to the analysis of institutional differentiation uses the characteristics of applicants (or entrants) as the criterion for identifying institutional differences, an approach suggested by Huisman et al (2007) and similar in concept to our analyses of ‘parity of esteem’ among post-16 options (Raffe et al 2001).

The project uses data provided by the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS), which is responsible for the electronic administration of (almost) all applications to HE institutions in the UK. The UCAS data cover all applications for full-time undergraduate courses at UK institutions for six selected cohorts 1996, 2000, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010. They include data on the demographic, social and educational characteristics of applicants, and details of applications. Using these data we have constructed derived variables to analyse change over time in the characteristics of applicants and entrants and the types of institutions and courses for which they apply. We will explore the characteristics of each institution’s applicants (or entrants) using latent variable analyses (including principal components analysis) to identify dimensions of differentiation, and cluster analysis to group and categorise institutions. This approach allows us to map the nature of such differentiation, for example whether it is mainly hierarchical or multi-dimensional, and to compare patterns of differentiation over time. We use statistical modelling to explore factors influencing differences in success rates to institutions with different statuses.

At the time of writing the research is at an early stage. and we do not know what results the analysis will produce. Our recent analyses have shown different dimensions of institutional differentiation, and we anticipate that we will find both stability and change in relationships between institutional differentiation and social-demographic and educational characteristics of applicants and entrants.