Dropout or early school leaving refers to children leaving educational system before completing at least lower secondary education. It is defined as percentage of population aged 18 to 24 who leave school without completing lower secondary education or passing the lower secondary education exam (Antonowicz, 2012). More specifically, it referes to children leaving elementary or high school, without completing school year they started, and those finishing high school but not continuing education in high school.
Several studies demonstrated that dropout has significant negative consequences both on the individual which is early school leaving (ESL), and to the community and economics (Commission Staff Working Paper (Sec(2010)); Cedefop, 2010). Namely, data show that ESLs will probably be unemployed, or employed in unsecure and poorly paid jobs. In addition, chances that ESLs will generate huge “social” costs, and live beneath acceptable economic level, is 2 to 5 times higher than for those completing education. Some economic analysis from Finland and Netherlands demonstrate that ESLs produce economic losses are between 1.1 and 1.8 million EUR per capita (NESSE, 2009).
Studies from EU show that 16.9% of boys and 12.7% of girls are early school leavers (NESSE, 2009). Data coming from large survey about education system in Serbia demonstrate that at least 13-15% of children do not complete even elementary school, although elementary and high school education are free and elementary school obligatory (IPSOS, 2012). In line with EU framework stating that by 2020 dropout rate should reduce to maximum 5% on national level (including sensitive groups of children coming from rural, low socio-economic families, Roma, and children with different impairments), Ministry of education of Serbia set reduction of dropout rate as one of primary goals. Consequently, Ministry strengthened legal framework related to dropout problem, listed it as one of priorities, and in 2010 and 2011 conducted the survey about the level of dropout (IPSOS, 2012). Among other things, strategy of Serbian Ministry of education proposes that at least 95% of those completing elementary school (which is about 88% of the school generation) continue high school.
Brodly defined, study was aimed to analize and provide better understanding of factors influencing dropout from Serbian educational system. Previous Serbian studies were trying to make a screening and answer questions about the magnitude of the problem (e.g., IPSOS, 2012). However, study in which role of certain risk factors for dropout would be investigated, both on elementary and high school level, was not conducted. More specifically, research was defined as a extensive study that should cover different group of factors (i.e., social, school, family and individual), and design of adequate measures targeting each group of relevant factors. In this paper we adresses only individual risk factors influencing dropout in Serbia, through analysis of case studies.
Starting point was large body of evidence showing that, among others, several individual risk factors predict dropout, e.g., poor academic achievement, low school grades, behavioural problems (Ginsburg, & Bronstein, 2008; Park, & Choi, 2009; Rumberger, & Lim, 2008). In addition, studies show that dropping out is not just an event but a process, and a consequence of interaction of various individual and other risk factors (family, social, school) (Rumberger, & Lim, 2008). Studies report relationship between parental behaviours and children’s school performance (e.g., Ginsburg & Bronstein, 2008), between educational and economic status and risk of dropout (Mahoney, & Stattin, 2000). Parental substance abuse and family conflicts were frequent patterns in dropout youth (Franklin, 1992).
