Individual risk factors for dropout from school – Case study from Serbia
Author(s):
Ljiljana Lazarevic (presenting / submitting) Marina Videnovic Ivana Stepanovic Ilic
Conference:
ECER 2014
Network:
05. Children and Youth at Risk and Urban Education
Format:
Paper

Session Information

05 SES 07, School Dropout: Individual and Family Risk Factors, and School Characteristics

Paper Session

Time:
2014-09-03
17:15-18:45
Room:
B017 Anfiteatro
Chair:
Ruth Leitch

Contribution

Dropout or early school leaving refers to children leaving educational system before completing at least lower secondary education. It is defined as percentage of population aged 18 to 24 who leave school without completing lower secondary education or passing the lower secondary education exam (Antonowicz, 2012). More specifically, it referes to children leaving elementary or high school, without completing school year they started, and those finishing high school but not continuing education in high school.

Several studies demonstrated that dropout has significant negative consequences both on the individual which is early school leaving (ESL), and to the community and economics (Commission Staff Working Paper (Sec(2010)); Cedefop, 2010). Namely, data show that ESLs will probably be unemployed, or employed in unsecure and poorly paid jobs. In addition, chances that ESLs will generate huge “social” costs, and live beneath acceptable economic level, is 2 to 5 times higher than for those completing education. Some economic analysis from Finland and Netherlands demonstrate that ESLs produce economic losses are between 1.1 and 1.8 million EUR per capita (NESSE, 2009).

Studies from EU show that 16.9% of boys and 12.7% of girls are early school leavers (NESSE, 2009). Data coming from large survey about education system in Serbia demonstrate that at least 13-15% of children do not complete even elementary school, although elementary and high school education are free and elementary school obligatory (IPSOS, 2012). In line with EU framework stating that by 2020 dropout rate should reduce to maximum 5% on national level (including sensitive groups of children coming from rural, low socio-economic families, Roma, and children with different impairments), Ministry of education of Serbia set reduction of dropout rate as one of primary goals. Consequently, Ministry strengthened legal framework related to dropout problem, listed it as one of priorities, and in 2010 and 2011 conducted the survey about the level of dropout (IPSOS, 2012). Among other things, strategy of Serbian Ministry of education  proposes that at least 95% of those completing elementary school (which is about 88% of the school generation) continue high school.

Brodly defined, study was aimed to analize and provide better understanding of factors influencing dropout from Serbian educational system. Previous Serbian studies were trying to make a screening and answer questions about the magnitude of the problem (e.g., IPSOS, 2012). However, study in which role of certain risk factors for dropout would be investigated, both on elementary and high school level, was not conducted. More specifically, research was defined as a extensive study that should cover different group of factors (i.e., social, school, family and individual), and design of adequate measures targeting each group of relevant factors. In this paper we adresses only individual risk factors influencing dropout in Serbia, through analysis of case studies. 

Starting point was large body of evidence showing that, among others, several individual risk factors predict dropout, e.g., poor academic achievement, low school grades, behavioural problems (Ginsburg, & Bronstein, 2008; Park, & Choi, 2009; Rumberger, & Lim, 2008). In addition, studies show that dropping out is not just an event but a process, and a consequence of interaction of various individual and other risk factors (family, social, school) (Rumberger, & Lim, 2008). Studies report relationship between parental behaviours and children’s school performance (e.g., Ginsburg & Bronstein, 2008), between educational and economic status and risk of dropout (Mahoney, & Stattin, 2000). Parental substance abuse and family conflicts were frequent patterns in dropout youth (Franklin, 1992).

Method

In order to obtain sample for case studies, data were collected from several sources. First, National Educational Council (NEC) and Serbian Institute for Statistics (SIS) provided statistics on national level about percentage of students not finishing elementary school (dropout data for school year 2010/2011); percentage of students finishing elementary but not continuing highschool (data from June 2012); percentage of students enrolling highschool but not finishing started school year (data from 2010/2011). Data about dropout did not include children never enrolling in elementary school, deceised during school year, children repeating school year or continuing part-time education, or migrated children were not included in dropout data. Second, for each local community we have collected data about economic development, educational structure, percentage of Roma population, migration index, and percentage of children participating in preschool programme. Strategy for sample recruitment was to select ESLs not originating from Roma community. Finally, head of local school administrations provided specific data on dropout in schools in local communities. On average, 95.25% of children is covered by educational system, but range of coverage significantly differs between local communities and is between 70% and 95% (SIS, DevInfo, 2011; 2013). All data provided by different sources were used for selection of ESL for case studies. Research was conducted in local communities with high dropout rate, in 8 elementary and 13 high schools from 17 local communities. School employees (i.e., teachers, psychologist, or manager) targeted children who already left school or are under high risk to become ESL, who were subjects of the following case studies. Total sample for case studies was 12, out of which 5 children were ESL or under risk to be ESL (from elementary school), two did not continue with highschool, and 5 were ESL or under risk to be ESL (from high school). Children from case studies participated in structured interview, and completed quenstionnaires aimed to gather relevant data on reasons for dropout. Structured in-depth interview focused on socio-demographics, data about school achievement, behavioural problems, family with family members, friends, and school employees. Questionnaires assessed motivation for learning, attitudes toward school and education, perception of teachers' educational habits and practices, and free-time activities. In order to obtain more valid data, when possible participated parents, i.e., two mothers and two fathers. Since data were analyzed qualitatively, each case can be treated as a representative of entire class, and not as one of analyzed cases.

Expected Outcomes

Case study revealed that several individual factors are potential risk factors of ESL, i.e., motivation for studying, learning difficulties, perception of classroom climate, and personal characteristics that can be described as impulsiveness and related behavioural problems (e.g., fighting, theft, substance abuse). Low motivation for learning in these cases can be a consequence of long-term failure in school (learned helplessness), certain social factors (e.g., educational profile is not available in local community, poor living conditions, lack of “working space” at home, lack of parent’s support), difficulties in maintaining of motivation. Qualitative analysis demonstrated that learning difficulties (and inadequate school practice), when present, are direct cause for ESL. Classrom climate in which child has marginal position in the classroom due to some impairment, low economic status, ethnicity, and poorly developed relationship with other students due to excessive introversion and lack of social skills, are factors perceived as relevant for dropout. Based on collected data, some ESLs have behavioural problems, like theft, fighting, different addicions, etc. In addition, they usually lack discipline, diligence, perseverance, orderliness, the ability to plan, etc. In other words, these characteristics probably results from basic personality disposition, i.e. Impulsivness (as opposite pole of Conscientiousness). Previous studies (e.g., Bratko, Chamorro-Premuzic, & Saks, 2006) demonstrate that personality traits (e.g., Conscientiousness) have incremental validity over intelligence in school achievement and that it is related to vandalism, and theft, both in boys and girls (Bogg, & Roberts, 2004). Results indicate that improvement of prevention and intervention measures is necessary. Adequate intervention from psychologists, teachers, and other experts from social service can decrease perseverance of these problems. Regarding learning difficulties, support in development of self-regulated learning, where important components are planning, follow of goal fulfillment, monitoring of own progress, and other elements of self-regulated learning and behaviour could be efficient in prevention of dropout.

References

Antonowics, L. (2012). Dropout prevention and response: School based interventionmodels. Good international practices, UNICEF Serbia and UNICEF CEE/CIS Regional Office Battin-Pearson, S., Newcomb, M. D., Abbott, R. D., Hill, K. G., Catalano, R. F., & Hawkins, J. D. (2000). Predictors of early high school dropout: A test of five theories. Journal of educational psychology, 92(3), 568. Bogg, T., & Roberts, B. W. (2004). Conscientiousness and Health-Related Behaviors: A Meta-analysis of the Leading Behavioral Contributors to Mortality. Psychological Bulletin, Vol 130(6), 887-919. Bratko, D., Chamorro-Premuzic, T., & Saks, Z. (2006). Personality and school performance: Incremental validity of self-and peer-ratings over intelligence. Personality and Individual Differences, 41(1), 131-142. Cedefop, (2010). Skills Supply and Demand in Europe: Medium-Term Forecast up to 2020. Commission Staff Working Paper. (2010, Septembar). Skills Supply and Demand in Europe: Medium-Term Forecast up to 2020. Paper presented at Reducing Early School Leaving: Efficient and Effective Policies in Europe, Brussels. Ginsburg, G. S., & Bronstein, P. (2008). Family factors related to children's intrinsic/extrinsic motivational orientation and academic performance. Child Development, 64(5), 1461-1474. Ipsos, (2012). Analiza osipanja iz obaveznog obrazovanja (Analysis of dropout from obligatory education), Belgrade Franklin, C. (1992). Family and individual patterns in a group of middle-class dropout youths. Social Work, 37(4), 338-344. National Educational Council (NEC, 2011). Indikatori za praćenje stanja u obrazovanju i vaspitanju (Indicators for followup in educational system). Belgrade Nesse (2009) Early School Leaving – Lessons from Research to Policy Makers Serbian Institute for Statistics (SIS, 2012). Statistički godišnjak Republike Srbije – Obrazovanje (Statistical yearbook Republic of Serbia-Education). Park, J.-H., & Choi, H. J. (2009). Factors Influencing Adult Learners' Decision to Drop Out or Persist in Online Learning. Educational Technology & Society, 12(4), 207–217. Republicki Zavod za Statistiku (Serbian Institute for Statistics) (2011). DevInfo Retrieved from http://devinfo.stat.gov.rs/rzsdevinfo/downloadse5.htm, March 2013 Republicki Zavod za Statistiku (Serbian Institute for Statistics) (2013). DevInfo Retrieved from http://devinfo.stat.gov.rs/diSrbija/Baze_DI.aspx, March 2013 Rumberger, R., & Lim, S. A. (2008) Why Students Drop Out of School: A Review of 25 Years of Research. Santa Barbara: California Dropout Research Project

Author Information

Ljiljana Lazarevic (presenting / submitting)
Institute of Psychology, Faculty of Philosophy
Psychology,
Belgrade
Marina Videnovic
Institute of Psychology, Serbia
Ivana Stepanovic Ilic
Institute of Psychology, Serbia

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