Dropping out of upper secondary education is an issue that has a far-reaching effect on an individual’s life as well as on society as a whole. Dropping out of upper secondary education substantially increases the risk of future unemployment (Campolieti et al., 2010; OECD, 2020), which has many effects at a societal level, such as raising government expenditure and increasing the risk of community-related issues, such as substance abuse and exclusion (Patrick et al., 2016).

Dropping out of education refers to the situation in which students leave their studies before completing compulsory education (Statistics Finland, n.d.). In 2023, 9.5% of 18 to 24-year-olds in the EU had only completed lower secondary education at most and were not participating any further education or training (EUROSTAT, 2024). In Finland, this rate is slightly above the EU average, at 9.6% (EUROSTAT, 2024). Compared to other Nordic countries, Finland is placed in the middle as the rate in Sweden is 7.4% and in Norway being clearly higher at 12.5% (EUROSTAT, 2024). 

This study examines the connection between learning difficulties and not completing upper secondary education on targeted time. Its objective is to investigate whether learning difficulties measured in the ninth grade predict noncompletion within three and a half years from upper secondary education. This study focuses on difficulties in mathematics and reading, since these skills form the foundation for academic achievement (Hakkarainen et al., 2013). More specifically, the study investigates the predictive effects of difficulties in technical reading, difficulties in reading comprehension and difficulties in arithmetic skills. Furthermore, the aim is to examine the respective effects of socioeconomic background and academic achievement in mathematics and literacy measured at ninth grade on this prediction.

The connection between learning difficulties and dropping out of upper education is evident (Bear et al., 2006; Deshler et al., 2001; Kortering & Christenson, 2009), yet there is not enough evidence about which learning difficulty (e.g., reading or mathematics) most strongly predicts dropping out of education (Korhonen et al., 2014) as only a few longitudinal studies have investigated the connection between mathematical difficulties and reading difficulties together in the same study (see Hakkarainen et al., 2015; Hakkarainen et al. 2016).  Also, there is a lack of research on the connection between different difficulty subtypes and educational dropout. The aim in this study is to investigate the distinction between difficulties in arithmetic skills, difficulties in technical reading skills, and difficulties in reading comprehension skills in predicting dropping out of upper secondary education.

This research sought to answer the following questions:

1. To what extent do learning difficulties (i.e., difficulties in technical reading, reading comprehension, and arithmetic skills) measured in the ninth grade predict not completing upper secondary education on targeted time?
2. What are the respective effects of socioeconomic background and academic achievement on this prediction?

The data used in this study were drawn from a follow-up study, which was collected in two parts. In the first part of the follow-up study, approximately 2000 students were followed from early childhood education to the end of lower secondary school between 2006 and 2016. In its extension, the participants and their classmates were followed up twice during their first year of upper secondary education, in spring 2017, and in their third year of study, in autumn 2018. The data used in this study were collected from classrooms during normal school days when the students were in the ninth grade of lower secondary education, in 2016. Students’ mathematical and reading skills were tested. Parents’ level of education was used as an indicator of socioeconomic background and information of the subject-specific grades in mathematics and literacy at grade 9 was collected from the school registers. Finally, in 2019 (i.e., 3,5 years from the start of upper secondary education), information about graduation from upper secondary education was collected from school registers. Statistical analyses were carried out with SPSS (version 28.0). “Having difficulties” was defined as belonging to the lowest-performing group of the ninth-grade test scores in technical reading, reading comprehension, and arithmetic skills separately. The knowledge of whether a student had graduated from upper secondary education was a binary variable, which was recoded for logistic regression analysis (0 = completed upper secondary education on targeted time, 1 = did not complete). As the outcome variable was binary, the analysis was carried out using a binary logistic regression model. First, the analysis was conducted by adding only learning difficulties group variables (technical reading, reading comprehension, and arithmetic) to the model simultaneously without other variables. The second analysis was conducted in three steps: in Step 1 gender and familial socioeconomic background were added to the model without other predicting variables. In Step 2, the learning difficulties group variables were included in the analysis. In Step 3, the effect of 9th grade academic achievement in literacy and mathematics were examined and were added in the analysis.

The results show that learning difficulties in reading comprehension and arithmetic skills predict noncompletion of upper secondary education on targeted time. Difficulties in arithmetic skills were found to be the strongest predictor for noncompletion, with the connection between arithmetic skills and not completing upper secondary education on targeted time remaining significant after socioeconomic background was included in the analysis. When students´ academic achievement in literacy and mathematics were included in the analysis, none of the learning difficulties demonstrated a statistically significant relationship with failure to graduate from upper secondary education within the targeted time. Previous studies have shown that academic achievement mediates the relationship between learning difficulties and graduation from upper secondary education (Hakkarainen et al., 2015; Holopainen et al., 2019). The findings of the present study are in line with these previous studies by suggesting that the effect of math difficulties on graduation is mediated via academic achievement. This means that while learning difficulties may not directly predict failure to graduate, they can influence academic performance, which subsequently affects the likelihood of graduation. In other words, learning difficulties still play a critical underlying role by negatively impacting literacy and mathematics performance. According to this study, from learning difficulty variables difficulties in arithmetic skills were the strongest predictor of noncompletion of upper secondary education on targeted time, and the connection remained statistically significant even when familial socioeconomic background was added to the model. This provides valuable information for education professionals when planning adequate interventions and support for students with learning difficulties. Most likely, support for mathematical difficulties should be provided earlier, with greater intensity through special education and/or rehabilitation services.

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