Since the first law on apprenticeship in Denmark in 1889 dropout has been an issue regulated by policymakers. Since the late 1960ies dropout in vocational education has almost permanently been considered a serious problem by policymakers. This paper applies discourse analysis (Bacchi 2000) to explore how the problem is defined and to analyse the shifting explanations for the dropout problem given by policymakers in connection with the major reforms of vocational education. In addition it examines the various measures taken in connection with the shifting problem-definitions and it assesses some of the equivocal effects of these policy measures. A notable finding is that the reasons given for students´ dropout change over time to the extent that policies seem to be going in circles. Measures that are employed at one time to reduce dropout are later on considered to be a contributing cause of dropout.

Based on a review of research literature (Lamb 2011; Niemeyer 2007; Walther 2006; Rumberger 2004; Hodkinson & Bloomer 2001; Heinz 2001; Alexander, a.o. 2001) it is argued that students’ dropout must be considered a complex phenomenon, which is a result of a range of interacting and cumulative factors over the life course. This can explain why policies seem to have limited and even negative effects, since policies are giving simple answers to complex problems.  Especially today the emphasis in education policy is on improving retention by benchmarking colleges, nominating best practices and steering colleges through economic incentives. These policies can encourage schools to focus on the financial rather than the pedagogical aspects.

In addition, it is argued that this type of policy carries the risk of creating just as many problems as it can solve. Owing to the complex nature of the dropout problem and the diversity of students dropping out measures to reduce dropout rates applied in one place carry a risk of increasing problems in another place (Jørgensen 2008). As an alternative it is suggested that policy should move from the provision of simple answers to the handling of the complex dilemmas inherent in the dropout problem.

The paper addresses the dropout problem in relation to the Danish dual system of vocational education, but it is argued that some of the basic dilemmas, e.g. how can VET include ambitious students as well as weak learners, is relevant to vocational education across countries in Europe.

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