Curriculum choices and decisions during the senior stage of secondary school such as the number and composition of subjects entered for national qualifications as early as age 15 are highly consequential: existing research shows that subject choice at age 15  determines whether young people would be able to make a transition into higher education as well as determines what type of educational institutions they are likely to be admitted (Ianelli 2013). Therefore, subject choice at age 15 is linked to social class destinations and chances of entering service class and avoiding low skilled occupation in later life and plays important role in social mobility (Iannelli, Smyth & Klein, 2016). 

This paper focuses on the impact of the Scottish Curriculum for Excellence (CfE) on subject choices and attainment throughout the upper secondary education phase in Scotland. It uses the Scottish Government administrative educational data on subject entries, attainment, and destinations of 15-18 years old,  for years 2011-2019 to obtain a nuanced understanding of the phenomena of the secondary curriculum narrowing under the CfE.   The curriculum narrowing manifests itself through a reduced number of subjects that pupils take for SCQF Level 5 qualifications in S4.  Existing research shows that there is a social gradient in Scottish secondary curriculum narrowing (Shapira &Priestley 2018,  2019).

The aim of this paper is to explore trends in subject entries at different levels of Scottish National qualifications during the senior stage of secondary education under the CfE and the relationship between these choices and attainment at different levels of qualifications obtained in year 4, year 5 and year 6 of secondary education.  

This  paper’s objectives are:

a. to examine the relationship between subject choice in year 4 (S4) of Scottish secondary education and the subsequent choices of subjects in year 5 (S5) (at the SCQF level 5 and level 6) and in year 6(S6)   (at the SCQF level 7 and level7).

 b. to examine the relationship between subject choice at different  stages and levels of Scottish National Qualifications and  school characteristics and

c. to explore the relationship between subject choice in S4 and the attainment at SCQF level 5, level 6 and level 7 qualifications.    

This paper analyses the Scottish Government administrative educational data on subject entries, attainment, and destinations for years 2011-2019. These data combine the a] Scottish Qualification Authorities subject entries and examination results in Scottish schools, 2011-2019; b] Pupils in Scotland Census, 2011-2019; c] School statistics data, 2011-2019. All data are aggregated at the level of schools and are available for all publicly funded secondary schools in Scotland. Our dependent variables are: Proportions of students who are enrolled in a. National 5 (SCQF level 5) level qualifications in a1. S4 and a2. S5; b. Higher (SCQF level 6) qualifications in b1. S5 and b2. S6 c. Advanced Higher (SCQF level 7) in S6. d. Percentage A-C passes (of a total number of qualification entries) obtained on National 5, Higher and Advance higher level of qualifications in S4, S5 and S6 stages. The independent variables are 1) School characteristics such as the level of deprivation of school area and its urban/rural classification; the socio-demographic characteristics of the student body (such as percentage of students with additional learning support needs; percentage of students registered for free school meals; staff-student ratio; percentage of students from ethnic minority background); 2) Number of subject choices at previous stages and at a lower level of qualifications; 3) Attainment at previous stages and at the lower level of qualifications. We use descriptive and advanced methods of statistical data analysis including correlations and multivariate linear and logistic regressions and employ the Heckman sample selection bias control method while modelling the impact of subject choice on attainment. The analysis of data enables us to explore multivariate causes of the curriculum choices and their impact on student attainment.

Our results show a decline in entries to National 5 level qualifications both in year 4 and year 5 of secondary education in Scotland. Overall we found that entries to National 5 level qualifications in S4 are positively associated with advantageous school characteristics such as low level of deprivation of the school’s area and high staff/student ratio. At the same time, entries to National 5 level qualifications in S5 are associated with disadvantageous school characteristics. Similarly, at the Higher qualification level, the number of Higher subjects choices in year 5 is positively associated with subject choice in S4 and is negatively associated with living in remote rural areas, and with the percentage of students registered for free school meals and the percentage of students with additional learning support needs, while the entries to Higher qualifications in year 6 are positively associated with the disadvantageous school characteristics. The findings also show that attainment at all levels of Scottish National qualifications in secondary education (National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher) was positively linked to the number of subject choices at the National 5 level of qualifications made in S4. For a summary, these findings demonstrate that young people who are attending schools of less advantageous characteristics are less likely to selected more subjects at SCQF National 5 level qualifications, which in turn has adverse impacts both on their subsequent subject choices and attainment at SCQC levels 5, 6 and 7. These findings are of international interest as they provide insights into the relationship between curriculum reform, curriculum choices and the outcomes of young people. These findings have implications for socio-economic inequality since they show how curriculum reform can affect differently the curriculum decisions and outcomes of young people from different socio-economic backgrounds.

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