There is a persistent assumption that higher education (HE) enhances graduates’ employability, economic outcomes, and wages. Consequently, graduate employability has become a central policy concern, with universities increasingly expected to equip students with labour-market-relevant skills. However, the relationship between HE and employment outcomes is increasingly contested. Many graduates experience underemployment (Purcell et al., 2013) and low wages, challenging the expectation that universities can effectively offset structural labour market constraints. As Tholen (2014a) argues, the growing reliance on HE institutions to improve employability often fails to reflect labour market realities, despite expanded employability strategies, institutional statements, and career services.

Skill mismatch remains widespread among new graduates (Wilton, 2011), with many employed in positions that do not fully utilise their qualifications. At the same time, much of the existing literature adopts a narrow analytical focus, insufficiently accounting for the broader social and economic conditions shaping graduate outcomes. The graduate labour market is increasingly congested, with an oversupply of graduates contributing to overqualification (Felstead et al., 2013) and intensifying competition for graduate-level employment (Brown, 2013). These dynamics reinforce existing inequalities and constrain social mobility, as access to high-quality employment continues to be stratified by class (Ashley and Empson, 2013; Friedman et al., 2015), gender (Purcell et al., 2013), and ethnicity (Sedghi, 2014; Gorman, 2015; Morley, 2001, p. 132).

In Portugal, the number of HE graduates has increased—albeit with minor fluctuations—since the end of the economic crisis in 2016/17, while graduate labour market outcomes have followed similar international trends. The expansion of graduate employment has not matched the growth in graduate supply, resulting in prolonged school-to-work transitions, greater uncertainty in employment trajectories, declining wage premiums relative to non-graduates, and rising wage inequality among graduates. Extended transition periods hinder skill accumulation and contribute to human capital depreciation, representing efficiency losses for both individuals and society. In this context, lower wages and increasing inequality have weakened graduates’ bargaining power, calling into question the economic returns of HE credentials.

Understanding the factors shaping the transition from university to the labour market is therefore critical for improving resource allocation and promoting societal well-being. This paper examines the determinants of the economic outcomes of graduates from ISEG (Lisbon School of Economics and Management), adopting a multidimensional framework. We assume that macroeconomic conditions, labour market context, individual characteristics, family socioeconomic status (SES), educational trajectory, institution attended, and level of qualification constitute a complex and interrelated set of influences on graduate outcomes.

The analysis draws on survey data collected from ISEG HE graduates 12 and 18 months after graduation, combined with administrative data on students’ individual and socioeconomic characteristics. The survey includes information on pre-graduation work experience, employment status, duration of transition into the labour market, job-search intensity, match between field of study and job requirements, satisfaction with the contribution of ISEG training to professional performance, and type of employment contract. The administrative dataset provides information on individual background, SES, and HE trajectories. National unemployment rates are also incorporated into the analysis. The final sample consists of 307 valid questionnaires. Statistical analyses will be conducted using SPSS, employing descriptive and inferential techniques to identify the factors significantly associated with graduates’ economic outcomes in the labour market.

We expect to find a negative association between graduates’ economic outcomes and national unemployment rates, transition length, social class, age, and female gender, alongside a positive association with parental education, pre-graduation work experience, skills–job match, and satisfaction with training relevance. We further anticipate that institutional employability initiatives, including employability statements and career services, will have limited measurable effects on graduates’ labour market outcomes.

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