Professional development is a lifelong process shaped by both personal characteristics and environmental influences. In adolescence, students are required to choose educational pathways that significantly affect their future career opportunities. The importance of structured and systematic career development has been widely acknowledged in policy frameworks (OECD, 2025). Early socio-cognitive models explaining the relationship between academic and career choices and performance (Lent et al., 1994) have evolved into contemporary approaches that focus on students’ values, attitudes, and expectations within their social environments, including family, peers, and schools (Neuenschwander & Kracke, 2011). This paper aims to contribute to current knowledge on educational transitions and aspirations and examine how VET students’ psychosocial factors differentiate between VET tracks and contribute to explaining educational aspirations. The study is based on an analysis of OECD PISA 2022 data (OECD, 2023, 2024). Croatia is one of the countries with highest coverage in vocational education; the majority of upper-secondary students are enrolled in VET programs (cca. 70%). Most students attend VET programs that enable entry into the labour market but also the continuation of education, resulting in a highly heterogeneous sample in relation to socio-economic status and educational aspirations. Using multivariate logistic regressions we examined student profiles by upper-secondary program. Enrolment in VET programmes without access to tertiary education is primarily predicted by lower socioeconomic status, male gender, lower educational and job aspirations, weaker academic achievement, and higher levels of information seeking, perseverance, stress resistance, and lower cooperation. Enrolment in VET programmes that allow labour market entry or educational progression is associated with lower socioeconomic status, higher educational aspirations, lower academic achievement, lower assertiveness, reduced family support, and weaker student–teacher relationships. With multivariate linear regressions we examined aspirations by upper-secondary program. Socioeconomic status emerged as the only consistent predictor of educational aspirations across both VET groups. Additionally, female gender, job prestige, and achievement were significantly related to aspirations in VET programmes enabling educational continuation or labour market entry. To explore system inequity, we tested how various psychological factors moderate relationships between SES and aspirations for students in VET programmes enabling educational continuation or labour market entry. Information seeking, family pressure, assertiveness, and curiosity were significant moderators, attenuating this association among students scoring higher on these characteristics. Overall, the findings highlight the need for systemic policy interventions that strengthen student characteristics capable of mitigating socioeconomic disadvantage and promoting greater educational equity.

Lent, R. W., Brown, S. D., & Hackett, G. (1994). Toward a unifying social cognitive theory of career and academic interest, choice, and performance. Journal of vocational behavior, 45(1), 79-122. OECD (2025), The State of Global Teenage Career Preparation, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/d5f8e3f2-en. Neuenschwander, M., & Kracke, B. (2011). Career development.In: B. Bradford Brown and Mitchell J. Prinstein, editors. Encyclopedia of Adolescence, Vol. 1. San Diego: Academic Press; 2011. pp. 97-105 OECD (2023). PISA 2022 Assessment and Analytical Framework. OECD Publishing. https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2023/08/pisa-2022-assessment-and-analytical-framework_a124aec8/dfe0bf9c-en.pdf OECD (2024), PISA 2022 Technical Report, PISA, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/01820d6d-en