For several years, the career choices of PhDs holders have received increasing attention from institutions. Initially seen as a channel for advancing public knowledge, the doctorate is now often praised as a generator of economic and technological value in a context of international competition. Thus, as elsewhere in Europe (for example, Passaretta & al., 2019), the proportion of PhD graduated employed outside academia has risen in France: according to the national IPDOC surveys, it concerns 51% of PhD holders one year after they obtained their diploma in the 2020 cohort, compared to 42% in the 2012 cohort.  

This trend partly reflects deteriorating academic labour market in many European countries, particularly for tenured position (OECD, 2024). Those limited opportunities are perceived by PhD students throughout their programme (Depolo et al., 2001; Roach & Sauermann, 2017). In France, they may contribute to the decline of academic aspirations by the end of the dissertation (Calmand & Giret, 2020), or to an international mobility trajectory that can ultimately lead to long‑term expatriation (Bonnard et al., 2017). 

As the first substantial experience in research, the doctoral studies years play a major role in shaping future careers (McAlpine & al., 2013). The discrepancy between initial expectations and the reality of a career in research can lead to shifts in aspirations (Depolo & al., 2001). Several studies indicate that, although academic careers are commonly associated with prestige, autonomy, and intellectual engagement, they are simultaneously characterized by heightened competition for tenure‑track positions and by workloads that have become increasingly demanding over time. Non-academic career can be seen as an alternative offering more stable working conditions or higher incomes, even though differences exist between the private sector and the non‑research public sector (Li & Horta, 2022). Consequently, although academia remains the dominant aspiration, its appeal tends to diminish over the years of PhD for a significant proportion of students (Depolo & al., 2001; Roach & Sauermann, 2017).   

In France, doctoral training has evolved significantly in recent years to adapt to this evolving job market and broaden career horizons (Chevaillier & al., 2020; Batteau, 2023). Skills awareness is emphasized as PhD students tend to ignore those that are not directly related to scientific research (Bonnard & Giret, 2016), which can lead to neglecting non-academic careers (Horta, 2018). However, doubts remain about the effectiveness of these training programs in addressing the actual aspirations and needs of doctoral students (Tõnismann, & Bran, 2025). 

Most available data predate these changes, and the factors influencing career planning during doctoral studies remain largely unexplored in France, particularly through longitudinal and quantitative approaches. The present research seeks to address this gap and to answer the following question: How are professional aspirations formed during doctoral studies in France? 

The first objective is to identify the factors influencing different professional aspirations throughout the doctoral years. Although conditioned by their field of research and funding, many students undertake a PhD without a clearly defined career plan (McAlpine & al. ,2013; Sauermann & Roach, 2016). It is therefore relevant to investigate whether aspirations evolve in response to similar factors as students become more familiar with the research environment. 

The second objective is to study more precisely the mechanisms leading to a change in aspirations. The contrast between desired job characteristics and confidence in the feasibility of planned careers may drive such changes. Training courses could influence both of these aspects by opening new career prospects, reinforcing interest in research or improving skills and their awareness.  

The results are based on a longitudinal survey designed to answer the research questions. Between March and July 2024, first-year doctoral students enrolled in French universities in the 2023–2024 academic year were invited by mail to participate in an online survey. The questionnaire included 12 modules ranging from sociodemographic information and PhD characteristics to academic relationships and difficulties encountered. One year later, students who had agreed to participate in the next wave were contacted again with a follow-up questionnaire. Although a final wave will be conducted between March and July 2026, this article presents initial findings from the first two waves. A total of 687 students have completed both questionnaires. It provides an original dataset in French research that tracks the trajectories of a single doctoral cohort from its first years from all French universities and domain of research. A first weighting procedure ensured the representativeness of the respondent population in terms of discipline, gender, nationality, and funding scheme, with respect to the doctoral statistics published by the Ministry of Higher Education. Then, longitudinal weighting was applied to correct for non-responding biases. The professional aspirations were measured using the question, “What is your professional project?” Respondent selected up to three options and ranked them by preference. For this study, professional aspirations were grouped into three categories: Academic, R&D, and other. We then focused solely on changes in academic project between the first two years. The empirical strategy relies on multinomial logistic regression. First, we analyse factors related to professional aspirations separately for wave 1 and wave 2 to analyse the persistence and differences of explanatory models over time. Second, we focus on the evolution of academic aspirations using a nested model strategy. We first look at the contrast between confidence in the feasibility of their career plans and desired job attributes, following previous quantitative longitudinal studies in other countries (Depolo & al., 2001; Roach & Sauermann, 2017). We then incorporate doctoral activities, particularly training courses, and self-assessed scientific and non-scientific skills. Although these variables may have a mitigating effect on the previous factors, they have received limited attention in previous studies with similar design. All models include a broad set of control variables including sociodemographic characteristics, thesis attributes, integration in the research environment and self-declared difficulties related to doctoral study. Missing data will be handled using Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE).

Initial results indicate that, although academia remains the predominant professional aspiration, it faces competition from the start of the thesis: 57% of students identified an academic position as their primary professional aspiration, compared to 25% for R&D, 19% for other occupations. Semi-private funding, promoted by the recent press release, is particularly correlated with R&D aspirations in multinomial regression models. Conversely, students oriented toward academia report more concern about their future career due to the perceived scarcity of jobs. In terms of priorities, students oriented toward R&D place greater importance to salary, whereas academic aspirants value autonomy. Interestingly, these associations strengthen over time. Training programs reinforce this differentiation, with R&D aspirations linked to course related to the private sector and academic aspiration to courses on scientific culture. Students without research aspirations are distinguished by their self-assessed skills, rating themselves lower in research competence but higher in soft skills. However, these relations at a given wave do not preclude an influence on change of project. While most doctoral students kept the same project in the second wave, 11% switched from an academic aspiration to a non-academic one and 10% moved from a non-academic aspiration to an academic one. Preliminary analysis suggests that transition toward academia show a stronger probability of decline in “salary” as preferred attribute. Compared to preferred job attributes, project feasibility appears less significant in explaining changes during the first two years of thesis. Skills and training programs exert a weak mitigating effect. However, training programs related to the private sector in wave 1 are associated with a shift toward non-academic aspirations. A final section will employ more advanced econometric methods to further investigate the complex causal mechanism underlying these professional aspirations.

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