Abstract

Education is often framed as a key mechanism of social mobility; however, educational choices remain closely linked to socio-economic background, even in systems with relatively broad access to higher education. This study examines the role of socio-economic status (SES) in shaping higher education choices in Slovenia, focusing not only on participation in higher education but also on differences across programme types, institutional types, and fields of study. In doing so, it highlights how social stratification operates not only at earlier stages of education but also at the transition into tertiary education.

The analysis draws on nationwide administrative data developed in collaboration between the National Examinations Centre and the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia. These data link individual students to their parents’ educational, occupational, and financial records, combining assessment and enrolment information with detailed socio-economic indicators. The resulting dataset enables the construction of a composite socio-economic status (SES) index based on parental education, occupational status, income, and property, following established approaches used in large-scale assessments such as the PISA ESCS index (OECD, 2017). Academic achievement is measured using upper secondary school grades and performance on national examinations, including both the general and vocational matura. Higher education outcomes include enrolment in higher education, programme type, field of study, etc.

Descriptive statistics, correlation analyses, and regression models are used to examine associations between socio-economic status, academic achievement, and higher education choices, accounting for prior academic achievement and key demographic characteristics. The study contributes to a more nuanced understanding of educational inequality by showing how socially patterned choices persist at critical decision points in educational trajectories.

The findings are expected to show that socio-economic background continues to shape higher education trajectories beyond differences in academic performance, consistent with theories of effectively maintained inequality (Lucas, 2001), relative risk aversion (Breen & Goldthorpe, 1997), and broader models of social stratification. While academic achievement is expected to account for an important share of variation in study choices, socio-economic differences are expected to persist in the selection of study programmes even after controlling for performance, including systematic differences across short-cycle, professional, and university-level programmes. From a broader perspective, these findings inform debates on meritocracy and social reproduction by illustrating how educational inequalities are reproduced through educational decision-making rather than formal barriers alone, with implications for student guidance, admission practices, and equity-oriented policies at the tertiary level.

Sample and Data Sources The study is based on a comprehensive population-level administrative dataset developed through collaboration between the National Examinations Centre and the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia. National assessment data (available from the mid-1990s onward) were linked with a range of official administrative registers (e.g., residency, employment, taxation, and property records), enabling the construction of detailed socio-economic indicators. These data were further combined with higher education enrolment records to capture individuals’ study choices. The dataset covers entire student cohorts and supports analysis of transitions from upper secondary to tertiary education, including enrolment status, programme type, and field of study across multiple cohorts. Measures Family socio-economic status (SES) Family socio-economic status (SES) was operationalised as a composite index composed of multiple dimensions of family background, including the highest parental occupational status, the highest parental educational attainment, cumulative household property value, and total annual gross parental income. The index was constructed following established approaches used in large-scale educational assessments, such as the PISA ESCS index (OECD, 2017), and previous Slovenian research (Cankar et al., 2017). Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to derive a single SES component, which was standardised for analytical purposes. Academic achievement Academic achievement was measured using multiple indicators of educational performance, including upper secondary school grades in core subjects (Slovenian, Mathematics, and English), subject-specific results from the general and vocational matura examinations, and overall matura achievement. Higher education choice Higher education outcomes were derived from official enrolment data and captured key dimensions of study choice, including enrolment in higher education, programme type, and field of study. Fields of study were classified using a nationally standardised framework aligned with the International Standard Classification of Education – Fields of Education and Training (ISCED-F 2013), ensuring international comparability. Statistical analysis All analyses were conducted using the R statistical software. Descriptive statistics and correlation analyses were used to explore associations between socio-economic status (SES), academic achievement, and study choices. Logistic and multinomial logistic regression models were then used to examine higher education enrolment, programme type, and field of study, controlling for prior academic achievement and key demographic characteristics.

This study focuses on socio-economic differences in higher education choice in Slovenia, with particular attention to how these differences emerge at the transition into tertiary education. Rather than examining access to higher education alone, the study addresses differentiation within higher education by programme type and field of study, thereby contributing to a more detailed understanding of contemporary educational stratification. Drawing on large-scale administrative and assessment data, the analysis is expected to show that socio-economic status remains systematically related to higher education choices, even after controlling for prior academic achievement. In line with theories of relative risk aversion, effectively maintained inequality and social stratification, students from lower socio-economic backgrounds are expected to make more conservative study choices, while students from more advantaged backgrounds are more likely to enter academically demanding and prestigious programmes and fields of study (Hemsley-Brown & Oplatka, 2015; Reay, 2001). The Slovenian context offers a particularly informative case for examining these processes. Despite relatively broad access to higher education (OECD, 2023), previous research has documented substantial socio-economic inequalities at earlier educational transitions (Cankar et al., 2017). This study is expected to demonstrate that similar mechanisms operate at the transition into higher education, where institutional and programme-level differentiation creates new opportunities for social stratification. The study contributes to debates on meritocracy and social reproduction by demonstrating that educational choices remain socially patterned, also within higher education. From a policy perspective, the findings underscore the importance of addressing inequality not only through early interventions but also at critical decision points such as transitions into higher education, with implications for student guidance, admission practices, and equity-oriented policies.

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