Ethnic inequalities in students’ experiences and outcomes in Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) remain a persistent societal challenge across OECD countries, particularly in migration-diverse contexts such as Flanders, Belgium (OECD, 2019). One important, yet still insufficiently understood, outcome of these inequalities concerns students’ intentions to drop out of higher education. Drawing on sociological (e.g., Bean, 1980) and psychological models of student persistence (Bean & Eaton, 2000), situated within an educational perspective (e.g., Braxton, 2020), this study approaches dropout intentions as the result of an interaction between students and institutional contexts, rather than as an individual failure (e.g., Behr et al., 2020).  

Previous research consistently shows that students from ethnic minoritized backgrounds report lower levels of belonging compared to their ethnic majority peers (e.g., Fleischmann et al., 2011; Banerjee & Bender, 2022). This is particularly concerning given that sense of belonging – conceptualized here as the students’ perception of being valued, respected, and able to be oneself within the academic environment – is consistently linked to academic success (Korpershoek et al., 2020). However, less is known about how belonging helps explain differences in dropout intentions, especially within highly accessible higher education systems. 

The objective of this study is therefore to map the dropout intentions of ethnic minority students and assess how their sense of belonging influences these intentions compared to majority peers. The study addresses two central research questions: (1) Is there an ethnic gap in dropout intentions among first-year students in Flemish higher education? and (2) To what extent does sense of belonging help explain potential differences in dropout intentions? 

From an anti-deficit perspective, demographic characteristics are approached as indicators of students’ broader social and cultural positioning within higher education, rather than as individual deficits. Because students’ positioning is shaped by multiple, interrelated background characteristics, the study adopts an intersectional approach with particular attention to ethnic background, linguistically minoritzed relational practices (i.e. lower levels of the majority (Dutch) language use across social relationships) and socioeconomic status.  

The first research question (RQ1) examines the extent to which students' background characteristics predict student dropout intentions. Building on existing literature, it is expected that students from ethnic minoritized backgrounds will, on average, report higher dropout intentions than their ethnic majority peers, reflecting unequal institutional experiences rather than individual limitations. The second research question (RQ2) investigates the mediating role of sense of belonging in the relationship between students’ background characteristics and dropout intentions, proposing that lower sense of belonging is associated with higher dropout intentions, particularly among students positioned at the intersection of ethnic minoritization and lower socioeconomic status. 

Context of the study 
This study is situated within the Flemish higher education system, which is characterised as a universal system (Trow, 2007) with open access to anyone who chooses to enrol with minimal criteria. In Flanders nearly all bachelor programmes are open, tuition fees are relatively low, and the higher education structure is flexible allowing students to move between academic and professional tracks. Despite this accessibility, persistent inequalities in students’ academic trajectories and outcomes remain. 

Cross-sectional survey data was collected from 2994 first-year students enrolled in 47 Dutch-taught bachelor programmes in 12 HEIs spread across Flanders. The survey consisted of previously validated scales measuring demographic background, sense of belonging and dropout intentions. Surveys were administered in class in a well-balanced range of STEM and SHAPE programmes, as well as academic and professional tracks. The analyses will be conducted at the individual student level. Ethnic background was operationalised using students’ migration background, based on the country of birth of students, their parents, and grandparents, allowing identification of ethnic majority and ethnic minoritized students across three generations. Linguistic background was assessed through students’ relational language practices, measured as self-reported frequency of the majority (Dutch) language use across different social relationships (parents, siblings, peers, friends, and grandparents). RQ1 is addressed using multiple linear regression models examining differences in dropout intentions at the intersection of ethnic background and relational language practices. In line with the hypotheses, these models test whether students with ethnic minoritized backgrounds report higher dropout intention than their ethnic majority peers. RQ2 examines whether sense of belonging mediates the association between students’ background characteristics and dropout intentions. This is assessed by estimating a series of regression models in which sense of belonging is introduced as a mediator, following a Baron and Kenny–type mediation approach, to examine whether associations between background characteristics and dropout intentions are attenuated when belonging is considered. All analyses are estimated with and without controlling for academic performance (GPA) to assess the robustness of the results. Additional exploratory analyses may examine whether patterns differ between STEM- and SHAPE- programmes, as well as academic and professional tracks.

Building on prior research and the theoretical framework outlined above, this study is expected to identify predictors in dropout intentions among first-year students in Flemish higher education. Specifically, students from ethnic minoritized backgrounds are expected, on average, to report higher dropout intentions than their ethnic majority peers, even within a formally open-access higher education system such as Flanders. In addition, relational language practices are expected to constitute an important dimension of inequality in dropout intentions. Lower levels of Dutch language use across social relationships are anticipated to be associated with higher dropout intentions, particularly among students positioned at the intersection of ethnic minoritization and linguistically minoritized practices. Regarding the second research question, sense of belonging is expected to function as a meaningful mediating mechanism in the relationship between students’ background characteristics and dropout intentions. Students who feel less valued, recognised, or able to be themselves within their programme are anticipated to report higher dropout intentions. Including sense of belonging in the analyses is therefore expected to attenuate, but not fully eliminate, associations between background characteristics and dropout intentions, suggesting partial mediation. Furthermore, analyses conducted with and without controls for academic performance (GPA) are expected to yield substantively similar patterns. Such findings would reinforce the argument that early disengagement in higher education is shaped not only by academic performance, but also by the institutional context that structure students’ everyday experiences. Exploratory comparisons between STEM and SHAPE programmes, as well as academic and professional trakcs, may point to variations in the strength of these associations. Overall, this study aims to provide a quantitative foundation for understanding early inequalities in dropout intentions within Flemish higher education, from an interdisciplinary perspective.

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