Vocational Education and Training (VET) is widely seen as a lever for tackling labour shortages, demographic ageing and skills mismatch in Europe, with robust evidence of positive employment and earnings returns to vocational tracks (Birkelund & van de Werfhorst, 2022; Brunner et al., 2023; McNally et al., 2022). Yet participation varies markedly across countries. This paper examines how upper‑secondary VET choices are made in four contrasting systems: Denmark (below‑average and declining participation), Spain and Estonia (below‑average but rising), and Croatia (consistently above the EU average) (Eurostat, 2025). Anchoring the analysis in youth transition regimes (Walther, 2006) and comparative stratification research on education‑to‑work linkages (Müller & Gangl, 2003; Shavit & Muller, 2000), we treat VET choice as system‑embedded rather than purely individual.

We combine this system perspective with a relational reading of student agency as context‑conditioned evaluation and selection among pathways (Emirbayer & Mische, 1998). In this view, VET participation will be higher where institutional arrangements offer recognised, permeable pathways with clear education–work linkages and perceived progression opportunities, and lower where vocational routes are weakly integrated or symbolically devalued (OECD, 2023).

Empirically, we use the VETprep large‑scale survey data from lower‑secondary students nearing transition in the four countries (Denmark: N = 1,724; Spain, N=1,583, Estonia N= 2,294, Croatia N= 777). The survey captures students’ intended post‑lower secondary pathway (VET vs. academic), educational aspirations, career clarity and certainty (Leierer et al., 2017), perceptions of VET (including status, employability, quality of work‑based learning and perceived progression), optimism, social and academic wellbeing (Lykkegaard et al., 2023), and socio‑demographic background. We estimate country‑specific logistic regression models predicting intended VET choice, allowing us to examine whether and how the determinants of VET participation differ systematically across European countries.

Preliminary analyses suggest that patterns of intended VET choice align closely with a regime‑based interpretation of vocational participation. Distinct constellations of correlates emerge across the four national contexts, indicating that students’ orientations towards VET are shaped by system‑specific opportunity structures rather than by uniform individual factors. In Croatia, where VET is structurally embedded and socially recognised, intending to choose a vocational pathway is closely associated with perceptions of employability and clear school‑to‑work linkages. These associations point to a context in which vocational routes are experienced as credible and purposeful pathways into employment. In Spain and Estonia, where VET participation has been increasing from comparatively lower levels, preliminary findings indicate that perceived permeability and progression opportunities—such as access to higher VET or tertiary education—are particularly salient in shaping VET intentions, alongside signals related to personal interest. By contrast, in Denmark, where academic pathways dominate the transition culture, higher academic achievement and tertiary‑oriented aspirations strongly predict intentions to choose an academic track. Here, concerns about the status of VET and uncertainty regarding long‑term progression appear to weaken VET intentions, even in the presence of widely acknowledged labour‑market returns to vocational education. Across all four countries, gender, socio‑economic background matter, but their direction and magnitude are system‑contingent rather than uniform. These patterns underscore that VET participation cannot be explained by individual attributes alone but must be understood in relation to nationally specific opportunity structures, signalling systems and transition cultures (OECD, 2023).

The paper makes two main contributions. Empirically, it demonstrates that the determinants of VET choice vary in predictable ways across European transition regimes. Conceptually, it reframes student agency as a form of relational, future‑oriented evaluation that is shaped by the coherence, status and permeability of available pathways. Policy interventions focused solely on changing individual motivation or aspirations are therefore unlikely to shift participation where institutional misalignment persists. Instead, sustained changes in VET participation depend on system‑level features that make vocational pathways credible, permeable and socially recognised.

We adopt a quantitative, comparative design to analyse how determinants of intended VET choice vary across four European systems with contrasting participation profiles: Denmark (low/declining), Spain and Estonia (low/rising), and Croatia (above‑average). Following the transition regime perspective (Walther, 2006) and comparative work on stratification and education–work linkages (Müller & Gangl, 2003; Shavit & Muller, 2000), we treat individual choice as embedded in institutional contexts. Sample and data collection Schools were selected to ensure variation in geographical location and socio economic context, thereby reflecting diverse institutional settings within national systems. Participation was voluntary, and data collection took place during school hours. The dataset comprises survey responses from lower secondary students close to upper secondary transition (Denmark: N = 1,724; Spain, N=1,583, Estonia N= 2,294, Croatia N= 777). The outcome variable is intended upper secondary pathway (VET = 1, academic/general = 0). Independent variables capture a range of factors identified in comparative VET and transition research (OECD, 2023). These include educational aspirations (including intention to pursue tertiary education); perceptions of VET (status, expected employability, quality of work‑based learning, fit with interests, and perceived progression opportunities); career certainty and clarity, optimism about the future, school wellbeing and socio‑demographic characteristics. Where necessary, items were harmonised across national contexts to ensure cross‑country comparability. The study follows national and European ethical guidelines for educational research. Analytical strategy We estimate country‑specific logistic regression models predicting intended VET choice. To facilitate comparability, core covariates are harmonised across countries. Standard errors are clustered at school level. As a robustness check, we include models with school fixed effects (where sample size permits) to partial out unobserved institutional heterogeneity. We report odds ratios and average marginal effects to aid substantive interpretation across settings. Our aim is not to rank countries but to identify which factors are most consequential within each system, and whether the pattern of predictors aligns with regime‑based expectations (Shavit & Muller, 2000; Walther, 2006)

The results underscore that VET choices are system‑embedded. Determinants of intending VET differ systematically across transition regimes: where VET is institutionalised and recognised (e.g., Croatia), employability signals and education–work linkages are strong correlates of VET choice; where participation is rising from lower baselines (Spain, Estonia), perceived permeability and progression gain salience alongside guidance access; and where academic pathways dominate transition cultures (Denmark), tertiary‑oriented aspirations and status concerns dampen VET intention despite positive labour‑market returns (Brunner et al., 2023; McNally et al., 2022). These patterns cohere with comparative research on stratification, tracking and skill formation (Shavit & Muller, 2000) and with the transition regime lens (Walther, 2006). Conceptually, the study reframes agency as relational evaluation of system affordances, rather than an individual capacity that can offset weak institutional alignment (Emirbayer & Mische, 1998). Policy efforts centred on motivation alone are unlikely to shift choices where status hierarchies, weak work‑based learning linkages, or opaque progression routes persist. Instead, participation is more responsive to system‑level levers that enhance the coherence, permeability and social recognition of VET (OECD, 2023), consistent with the evidence on returns to vocational education (Birkelund & van de Werfhorst, 2022; McNally et al., 2022). Practically, this means: credible pathways from upper‑secondary VET into higher VET/tertiary; high‑quality work‑based learning with employer engagement; and guidance that makes progression transparent. Such measures do not replace individual decision‑making; they reshape the opportunity structure within which choices are made. Addressing systemic misalignment—rather than attributing variation to individual deficits—offers a more promising route to stabilising or raising VET participation across Europe.

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