While Swiss educational policy claims that everybody should complete upper secondary education, concern grows about the high numbers of young people who drop out from apprenticeship training. According to educational statistics, more than 20% of the apprenticeship contracts are terminated before the apprentice reach certification (Stalder & Schmid, 2006), and it is feared that many of the youths concerned remain excluded from the educational system. Educational dropout has been investigated intensively in school based (vocational) education (see e.g. Beekhoven et al., 2005, Dekkers et al., 2001, Fortin et al., 2006). In apprenticeship based VET systems, research has - often under the notion of “educational drop out” - analysed the phenomenon of “premature apprenticeship contract cancellations” (Bohlinger, 2002). Bohlinger has criticised the lack of consistent definitions of “dropout”, which leads to misunderstandings and misinterpretations of educational statistics and research results. Most of the dropout studies in apprenticeship training do not distinguish between contract cancellations followed by occupational change or the change to another company and cancellations, which mean that youths drop out from education altogether. Consequently, research has so far neglected to look at the specific conditions and processes of premature contract cancellations, which are linked to different kinds of subsequent educational pathways. In my presentation I’ll focus on four different types of premature terminations of apprenticeship contracts: 1.occupational relegation (change to occupation with lower intellectual requirements or grade repetition), 2.change to another occupational field, 3.change to another training company (continuing in the same occupation) 4.dropout without subsequent education or training. While the first three types are characterized by change (of occupation and/or company), the fourth type includes youths who quit the educational system and risk to remain without upper secondary education certificate. The latter type can be seen as most critical as regards the risk of unemployment and social exclusion. My presentation will focus on three questions: 1. How many of the apprentices experience a moment of change or dropout in their educational pathway? 2. What are the predominant factors that characterize change and dropout? 3. What are the distinguishing characteristics of the four types of cancellation? Consistent with existing research, family (socio-economic and migrant background), individual (achievement in lower secondary and during the apprenticeship, educational satisfaction concerning occupation, company and overall) as well as school and workplace characteristics (variety of work, strains, social support, critical event at school or at the workplace) are taken into account as possible correlates and predictors of the four types.

To answer the above questions data gathered by the Swiss national youth survey TREE (Transition from Education to Employment) has been analysed. TREE’s main concerns are the educational and occupational pathways pursued by young people after compulsory school. It is based on a sample of some 6,000 youths who took part in the PISA 2000-study. The analysed subsample consists of 2600 young people from the German, French and Italian part of Switzerland, who had entered apprenticeship training in the year 2000 or 2001. Results presented at ECER 2008 will combine data gathered by PISA (student background and achievement in the PISA-test 2000) and the first five waves of TREE (school and workplace training during apprenticeship, educational satisfaction, intention to quit). Using a competing risk model approach four predictive models are developed and compared.

Results confirm the difference between the four types of cancellations. While the three types defined by change can be predicted either by achievement problems or the specific educational situation in the apprenticeship, dropout follows a more complex multiple predictor pattern. In light of the distinct patterns of change and dropout consequences for prevention policies against dropout and contract cancellation will be discussed. It will be argued that prevention discussions need to be specified in order to develop effective preventive measures.