In Finland in the years 1990-2000 the amount of PhDs and other researcher trained employees increased by 60 %. At the same time the PhD - degrees taken in universities more than doubled. This has raised critical discussion about possible excess supply of researcher training and question of the appropriate volume of that training.Traditionally the amount of PhD-training in Finland has been the responsibility of universities and determined according to the researcher and academic teacher jobs-openings. In the 1990's most new researcher jobs were opened outside the academic world, especially in ICT- and other R&D-intensive industries. This means that the traditional method in quantifying the researcher training is no more appropriate. A new method is employed in a paper I prepared for the Science and Technology Policy Council of Finland. It is an application of the manpower method used in Finnish educational planning for more than 30 years.In this method the training need is the sum of the outflow from the labour force and the change in the amount of jobs. For example, if the size of labour force is 1000 persons and the outflow during the next 10 years is 300 persons and the increase of jobs is 500, the training should annually produce 80 degrees (300+500=800/10=80).The outflow is mainly determined by the degree of retirement of the employees but other factors are taken into account, too. The change of jobs can be estimated by occupational forecasts based on industry employment and national economy forecasts. In 2000 the number of Finnish researcher trained employees was 19 000. In the years 2000-2020 the outflow is more than 15 000. The number of relevant jobs will be doubled during the period, to nearly 40 000. The total training need is 37 000 PhD-degrees which means 1800 degrees annually. This exceeds the present training volume of 1200 degrees and the previously planned 1450. Partially on the basis of this forecast the target of researcher training in Government's development plan for Education and Research 2003-2008 was raised to 1600 degrees. Both the target and the underlying forecast have stimulated a new debate not only on the need for PhD training but more largely on the future development of the Finnish economy and society. Participants of this debate have presented questions about the unemployment and quality risks involving the decisions still to enlarge the training. Questions are also presented about the job structure of the Finnish economy: where are the people who are in the future doing real work in Finland?Forecasts always contain a risk. One cannot say for sure that they will come true. But on the other hand without anticipating the future you are at the mercy of the current circumstances and forced to make sudden and often contradictory decisions. In addition, an abundant supply of trained researchers means the growth of the probability of generating new high-skilled and -salary jobs.