Both social and ethnic disparities in educational attainment remain a challenge in most European countries (Autorengruppe Bildungsberichterstattung 2012). Besides resource-based explanations, current educational research ascribes a central role to students’ attainment decisions net of their probability of success (Boudon 1974; Stocké 2012). This trend is not least reflected in the rapidly growing body of transitions studies across Europe. So far, however, empirical applications have almost exclusively been confined to the investigation of subjective data in the form of respondent-reported educational aspirations and expectations.

Indeed, longitudinal studies have consistently found considerably strong associations between expressed aspirations, expectations and attainment levels, and the former have been routinely used to predict both educational and occupational attainment (Rojewski 2005). Yet, the value of subjective data to predict later attainment outcomes is discussed controversially. Concerns that have been expressed in this vein include the consideration that respondent-reported aspirations and expectations may be vague preferences that have no salience to students’ everyday behavior or result from inaccurate or lacking information about the educational system and unrealistic self-appraisals (Bourdieu 1973; Alexander and Cook 1979). Observations such as an increased gap between expressed aspirations, expectations and attainment outcomes in many western countries indeed suggest that students tend to “inflate” their beliefs rather than they adjust them to their perceived abilities (Goyette 2008: 477).

A further consideration relates to the measurement of aspirations and expectations. Most commonly, educational aspirations and expectations are assessed by asking for the highest level of education and individual aspires or expects to complete (e.g., NEPS, PISA). Research from the field of vocational psychology, however, has shown adolescents to tend to be insecure about their interests, abilities and values, to often lack knowledge about the educational requirements of different types of careers, and to tend to entertain a range of career aspirations that may vary in terms of their educational requirements (Gottfredson 1981, 2005; Schneider and Stevenson 1999). Hence, the question arises to what extent conventional one-dimensional measures of aspirations and expectations can adequately capture students’ subjective beliefs and provide information on the courses of action they will eventually take.

The present contribution addresses the considerations above and investigates students’ future career aspirations and expectations at the point of transition at the end of compulsory full time education in Germany. At this stage of the educational career, students are approximately 15 to 17 years old and face the decision to remain in general education to obtain qualifications that provide access to an academic career or to enter the vocational education and training (VET) system. A first question that is addressed relates to the congruence between students’ plans to enter higher education or the vocational education and training system and the educational requirements of their occupational plans. Taking into account the concern that migration-specific circumstances may be associated with a lack of knowledge about the educational system and labor market requirements in the country of residence (Relikowski et al. 2012), the study investigates whether there are any systematic differences in these patterns between native and migrant students. Second, the contribution addresses the question whether and to what extent information on students’ plans to enter higher education and on the formal entry requirements of their occupational plans can predict their aspirations and expectations in general education. In consideration that students may have a range of career aspirations, the study specifically addresses the question whether measures that allow for a variation in the educational entry requirements of students’ future career plans can predict their aspirations and expectations in general education better than their plans to enter higher education.

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