This article discusses the relationship between the PISA reading literacy scores and post-compulsory pathways with a specific focus on low achieving students. PISA is a tri-annual OECD programme which assesses students’ reading, maths and science literacy. Referring to Bourdieu's capital theory (Bourdieu, 1977; Bourdieu & Passeron, 1971), skills, knowledge and qualifications are conceptualised as human capital, which can be accumulated, transferred and accreted. The concepts employed by PISA have to be understood in the context the economic, education and employment structures of the OECD-countries, which are marked by a growing demand for high and a decreasing demand for low skilled workers. Knowledge and skill demands change more quickly, and life-long learning becomes an important issue in the labour market and society (CERI/OECD, 2001). PISA defines "literacy" in a broad sense and looks at students’ ability "to apply knowledge and skills in key subject areas and to analyse, reason and communicate effectively as they examine, interpret and solve problems" (OECD, s.a.). PISA defines five skill levels and sets a critical threshold, below which continuation of education at the upper secondary level is threatened. Students not reaching literacy level 2 belong to the (potential) "risk group" (Deutsches PISA-Konsortium, 2000, 2001). Their literacy skills are not sufficient for completing vocational education, getting a first job, engaging in life-long learning or - more generally - for fully participating in society. Findings from PISA have shown that in countries with strongly tracked/segregated education systems the proportions of low-achievers are higher than in other countries. This holds especially for Germany or Switzerland (e.g. Ramseier & Brühwiler, 2003); some 20% of the students in Switzerland did not reach reading literacy level 2 in PISA 2000. Accordingly, the problem of low-achieving students weighs heavily on the political agenda. The assumption of PISA that low achieving students will have severe problems in vocational education and training cannot be tested by using (cross-sectional) PISA data only. This is where the Swiss cohort study TREE (Transitions from Education to Employment) comes into play. TREE follows up the Swiss PISA 2000 sample. In our presentation, we shall focus on low achievers’ post-compulsory educational pathways. Firstly, we shall describe how PISA literacy scores are linked to upper secondary enrolment and graduation. Secondly, we shall analyse the effects of PISA scores on upper secondary graduation in a multivariate perspective, controlling for social origin, migrant background and prior educational situation.

Our analyses are based on data gathered by PISA in the year 2000 and by TREE in the following seven years. Data collected by PISA are available for the entire TREE sample. It is the main concern of TREE to look at educational and occupational pathways pursued by young people after compulsory school. To date, TREE has carried out seven follow-up panels in a yearly rhythm (2001-2007). The analysed sample consists of more than 5500 young people from the German, French and Italian part of Switzerland who had left compulsory school in summer 2000. Results presented at ECER 2009 will combine data gathered by PISA 2000 (student social and migrant background and PISA literacy scores) and all waves of TREE (educational participation, information on graduation and certificates). In addition to descriptive analyses, a multinomial regression model will be used to analyse predictors of successful upper secondary graduation.

Results show that a surprisingly high percentage of the potential risk group completes upper secondary education and training with a basic VET degree (Stalder, Meyer, & Hupka-Brunner, 2008). Obviously, the Swiss VET system is managing rather well in providing educational opportunities to low-achieving students. In the discussion of the findings we shall highlight three critical points. First, low achievers remain in education or training for a significantly shorter period than students with higher reading literacy. This might result in disadvantages on the labour market later on. Second, literacy skills do not seem to be the most decisive factor determining whether a young person attains an upper secondary education certificate or not. Third, the quality of basic VET degrees has to be examined in more detail, as surveys on adult literacy skills show but small differences between VET graduates and persons without post-compulsory certificate whatsoever (Falter, Pasche, & Hertig, 2007).