Our paper analyses the determinants of school transitions from primary to secondary, and secondary to tertiary level of education in a number of European countries. Level of qualification plays a crucial role in status attainment and in mediating access to jobs with financial and non-material rewards. Inequalities of educational opportunities have a strong impact on life chances as a whole. Those who complete primary level of schooling only have very limited employment opportunities in modern knowledge-based societies and have a high risk of unemployment. Qualifications at lower level of secondary school usually provide basic skills to gain employment but do not on the whole make it possible for individuals to move to higher education. This requires the completion of higher level of secondary education and college or university diplomas. This trajectory facilitates more prestigious and more rewarding jobs. Transitions across these stages of school career are the focus of the paper. Social origin of individuals with respect to parental education and occupation is a major predictor of educational selection, of becoming a dropout or continuing to higher level in the school system. In our study, we apply a comparative perspective and are interested in how the effect of family background varies in Europe. Chances for grade progressions with different social origin are expected to be dissimilar in different types of societies. We intend to consider two sources of institutional variation in this respect. On the one hand, the school system has a diverse character in various societies with respect to tracking. The existence and the strong separation of the vocational-oriented and academic-oriented tracks in some countries (e.g. Germany, post-socialist countries with German-type traditions of the school system) may lead to a higher impact of social origin on educational transitions. On the other hand, the influence of social origin can vary according to the welfare system of the societies with various emphasis and efforts on the social support of individuals with disadvantaged family background (e.g. in the liberal countries vs. in the social democratic societies). In our analysis we intend to group the countries investigated into various clusters based on these institutional features. Finally, in an era of large-scale geographical mobility, we consider the immigrant status as crucial determinant of grade progressions, at least in those countries where immigration has a substantial degree.

We use the European Social Survey (ESS) data, Round 1, 2 and 3 from 2002, 2004, 2006. We extend the models previously used in the literature by testing a dynamic discrete choice model of schooling. It allows us to consider schooling transition processes that are more general than the grade progression models usually presented. The point of departure for our research is the recognition that schooling attainment at any age is the outcome of previous schooling choices. The probability that a person enters university/college depends on completion of a particular back to the earliest schooling decisions. Cameron and Heckman document the empirical importance of controlling for educational selectivity in isolating effects of family background on schooling decisions. Our methodology enables us to decompose the influence of selectivity on family background variables in a general way.

The benefits of undertaking cross-national analysis are clear. Levels of educational inequality tend to reflect a society’s overall level of social inequality. Secondly, we might find that a society’s culture, broadly interpreted, was associated with its pattern of educational inequality. Use of systematic cross-national studies of attitudes and values in the European Social Survey (ESS) make rigorous research of this sort feasible. National policy differences play a part in the explanation of the inequalities inherent in educational transitions. On the one hand we need to address welfare state regimes and on the other we need to consider specific educational policies and institutions (such as the distinction between the more selective educational system of Germany or the comprehensive systems of Britain and Sweden) which to some extent cross-cut the broader typologies of welfare state regimes.