In Switzerland, about 70% of the young people enter the (mostly dual organized) vocational education and training system after compulsory school. Most of them graduate after three or four years of training and enter the labour market. About 25% of the youth enter a general education track (Gymnasium) that leads to university entrance qualification. The advantage of this system is a very low youth unemployment rate. However, the early selection of children (after six years of primary school) in schools with different academic requirements produces social disparities in educational participation and achievement of degrees. The correlation between highly selective systems (like Switzerland, Germany or Austria) and social inequality was shown amongst others by PISA results.

Since two decades, educational policymakers are discussing how to respond on the social selectivity of educational systems. In this context, they often highlight the potential of promoting permeability not only but also in vocational education and training systems, with the goal of decreasing the effect of the social background on the educational success (e.g. Frommberger 2009) and reducing the "skilled workers shortage" (e.g. Kost, 2015). Plausible assumptions indicates this correlation, however, empirical evidence for this relationship is nearly inexistent (c.f. Bellenberg et al. 2004; Barabasch & Deitmer 2011). Systematic overviews or meta-analysis are lacking.

For Switzerland, the permeability between the VET-System on the secondary II level and Universities of Applied Sciences are largely unexplored. The Federal Vocational Baccalaureate (FVB) is the key for entering a University of Applied Sciences (UAS). The FVB can be achieved in two ways: parallel to the apprenticeship or after the VET Diploma in a one-year full time school. It is apparent that there are different paths to achieve a degree on a tertiary level; however, it is unknown which variables (or combination of variables) influence the choice for a certain path.

In Europe, permeability in VET is currently discussed with the focus on validation of non-formal or informal learning for higher education studies (this is part of the discussion on national and European qualification frameworks) (e.g. Bohlinger 2012). Current studies in VET show, that gender, family background and socioeconomic status are still highly influential predictors for career decisions (e.g. Cedefop 2012; Kost, 2015).

With respect to the structure of the Swiss education system and the state of research I aimed to answer three questions: How can the achievement of a FVB be predicted, as a first step to realize a permeable path?, second, how can the entry on a UAS after the achievement of an FVB be predicted? and third, decreases this kind auf structural permeability the “skilled workers shortage”.

In the first two questions I am particularly interested in effects of gender, socioeconomic status, educational aspirations, reading skills and the secondary I school type.

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