The “inspiring future for education” (Hargreaves/Shirley 2009) is collaboration. Empirical studies show that area based networks can be effective in supporting young people, educational institutions and local stakeholders (Brown/Portman 2018; Armstrong 2015). At the same time, within a knowledge-based society, education turns to be more and more attractive for cities and regions (Edvardsson et al. 2016). Against that backdrop, in the last decade, many countries have introduced policies to mandate or incentivize educational networks.

The paper focuses on the German case. In contrast to other western countries, the German educational system shows a high degree of fragmentation and a focus on formal education only (Gottschall 2001). Ten years ago, a debate about area-based reform came up and a broad variety of model projects such as “Learning Local” started to overcome the institutional fragmentation and widen the understanding of education. Even there is evidence on the implementation (Duveneck 2016; Fischbach et al. 2015; Arbeitsgruppe Lernen vor Ort 2016) and particular administrative structures become prevalent (Tegge/Brüggemann 2018), the future development of area-based education in Germany is highly uncertain. How will it look like in 2030? Which developments are probable, which ones are preferable, and how are they related to each other? Where do expectations meet intentions, where do they diverge? What are future challenges, which aspects are driving the process? And how can intentions become fulfilled?

The paper presents and discusses empirical findings on a quantitative Delphi-Survey.

The paper presents empirical findings on a quantitative Delphi-Study. The project lasted from February 2016 to October 2018. Die Delphi-method comes from future research and aims at clarifying uncertain developments based on a panel of experts (Häder 2009). For this purpose, experts answer question-naires in at least two rounds. After the first round, they receive a summary of results so that in in a second round, they can revise their answers in this light. This approach allows decreasing the range of answers towards a stable forecast. The design used here focusses on identifying and qualifying the expert’s assessments (Häder 2009: 33). It is the only empirical study on the future development in the field of area-based education. The panel involves nationwide experts on area-based education, working in education, administration, politics and civil society etc. The sample strategy started with a literature review and an online search, taking programs such as “Learning Local” and conferences as starting point. Data was collected in two rounds from March to August 2018 with an online questionnaire. It asked for social-demographic data, for expertise in the field (based on the duration, form and hours of work in the field plus a self-assessment) and for different developments in area-based education: Its goals, the understanding of education, participation, cooperation, funding, challenges and drivers. The experts assess the probable and preferable development and rank the influence of drivers and challenges on a Likert-scale from one to six. The statements stem from a comprehensive literature review and an expert-workshop to structure and qualify the identified aspects. The data collection started with inviting to 851 experts via e-mail. Among them, 792 received the invitation and 315 participated in the first round. From this group, 197 participants took part in the second round. After cleaning the data, the results ground on 180 questionnaires. The sample structure shows that most respondents deal with politics and administration (39,9%) and come from all federal states participate, while there are regional foci. The degree of expertise is rated to be between “rather high” and “high”. Data analysis started with descriptive statistics on the arithmetic average and standard deviation in SPSS. Further analysis focus the group active in local administration and their relation to other groups.

The study reveals three major findings. 1) Gap between the goals of area based education and the expert’s expectations. Experts widely share the ideas of area based education reform. The idea of in general, most of its aims and aspects of participation, collaboration, coordination and funding are “very preferable”. Most other aspects are “preferable”. Regarding expectations, interestingly, while they are only “rather probable” to be realized in 2030, the statements which are fewest preferable (e.g. with focus on formal education) are expected to be most probable. 2) Limitation on administrative level While in the first instance, the debate on area based education in Germany aimed at overcoming the fragmented structures, the results show that cooperation within existing structures is probable. For example, the downscaling of competencies in schooling, the fusion of school and youth administration or fundamental changes in funding are “not” or “rather not probable”. Concerning funding, the experts give the most pessimistic answers. Further, there is evidence that respondents dealing with local administration have a lower interest in participation than those who do not. An open research question is to what extent the divergence from intentions and expectations relates to limitations on administrative level. 3) Significant role of decision-making Finally, the study highlights the development’s dependence on decision makers. On the one hand, even if most drivers of the development are rated to have “high” impact, decision makers have the highest rate. On the other, the transfer of projects in regular structures is rated to remain the major challenge. As creating adequate structures to stabilize area-based reform beyond projects is a matter of decision makers, they seem to be crucial actors for future development. The results are discusses regarding their implications for practitioners and contributions from research to close the gap between intentions and expectations.

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