One of the key challenges to vocational education and training (VET) at the upper secondary education level is how to change the perspective that it represents a dead-end pathway in the education system. This challenge is often discussed in the context of how to increase the standing of VET and refers to efforts to increase VET participation (Billett, 2020; Eiríksdóttir, et al., 2018; Field & Guez, 2018; UNESCO, 2016). About 15% of young people in Iceland choose VET in upper secondary schools after completing compulsory education, and only 30% of students overall are enrolled in VET, which is lower than the EU average (Cedefop, 2020a; Statistics Iceland, 2021). The educational authorities and other stakeholders have long emphasized the need for action and measures to strengthen VET (Eiríksdóttir, et al., 2018; Ministry of Education, Science, and Culture [MoESC], 2014; Jónasson, 1998; OECD, 2013). Providing VET graduates access to higher education (HE) is often mentioned in this context – especially with the general expansion of and increased participation in HE in general (Jónasson, 1998, 2003).

The goal of the study is to look at how the access of VET graduates to HE has developed over the past two decades in Iceland. Both in terms of the structure and regulation governing the education system as well as the opportunities and participation of students. The development of the access of VET graduates to HE is considered from two sides, based on how this challenge has been approached in the other Nordic countries (Helms Jørgensen et al., 2018): (1) in terms of HE preparation at the upper secondary school level. In the years 2008 to 2011 the regulatory framework of the upper secondary school was reformed, and a new national curriculum introduced. Curriculum decentralization and a disengagement between of the type of qualifications and programme were a part of this reform. These changes opened the possibility for a greater variety of VET programmes, including the creation of hybrid programmes, where student complete both VET qualifications and the matriculation exam (without lengthening the programme). (2) In terms of changes made to the HE education level to accommodate VET students. HE vocational programmes are rare in Iceland and there are no applied or vocational universities. This lack of HE opportunities has been criticized (Cedefop, 2020b; OECD, 2013) and was the objective of recent VET reform initiative (MoESC, 2014, 2016, 2019). Aside from creating new HE vocational programmes, a recommendation was made to open University admission requirements so that VET qualifications would suffice for general entry, and a law to this effect was passed in the spring of 2021. The focus in the proposed presentation will be on what these events mean in terms of the development of the VET system. In particular, the aim is to look at the tensions between different forces governing this part of the education sector (Jónasson, 1995, 1998). VET in Iceland has traditionally been quite distinct from the more academically oriented general programmes (ending with a matriculation exam) and stakeholders from the world of work have had substantial influence over the content and structure of VET. Opening access to HE challenges this influence and creates a conflict between preparing students for work and HE in a single programme (Helms Jørgensen et al., 2018). How this will play out will determine the future development of VET in Iceland; either maintaining its distinctiveness or developing towards a more pluralistic form where VET pathways will be indistinguishable from academic pathways (Cedefop, 2020b). Discussing the trajectory of these developments in such abstractions allows for comparison with developments of other European VET systems.

The analysis of the development of access of VET graduates to HE over the past two decades in Iceland was on one hand based on data from Statistics Iceland (2021), and on the other, on the analysis of official governmental documents and reports. Data from Statistics Iceland on graduation numbers at the upper secondary education level were used to look at (1) the number and percentage of VET students that graduate overall in comparison to students graduating from academic programs, and (2) the percentage of VET students who also complete the matriculation exam within 5 years of completing their VET qualifications. Data on higher education freshmen was used to investigate how common it is that students with VET background enroll in University education in Iceland. Various official governmental documents and reports were analyzed to investigate the changes made to the education system determining HE access for VET graduates, including legislative materials, statutes, ministry yearbooks, white papers, meeting notes, and reports. These sources were used to trace the development of ideas and measures throughout the past twenty years having to do with preparing VET students for or opening access to HE. The goal is to identify the patterns of tensions between stakeholders, for instance those representing the world of work and the labor market who have long held power in the VET system, and the university level which influences the content and structure of academic pathways by determining admission requirements (Jónasson, 1998, 2003). The analysis of the direction of development of the VET system was based on the two-dimensional model identified in the Cedefop (2020b) report on the future trends of VET. The first dimension refers to the overall position of VET within the education system in relation to academic education (value based on general or vocational knowledge; vocational or academic drift). The second dimension refers to the changing characteristics of VET – either towards a distinctive VET or a pluralistic education and training. These dimensions are not independent and in a single system a push in different directions along these dimensions can be identified. Using this two-dimensional model will allow for comparing the development of the Icelandic VET system to trends and trajectories of VET systems in Europe.

VET students in upper secondary schools are relatively unlikely to complete the matriculation exam. Changes to the regulatory framework and decentralization of curriculum making seem to have changed little in this regard. Few programmes offer VET students opportunities for completing the matriculation exam and most are intended after VET qualifications have been completed. Typical VET programmes take four years to complete and this means additional time at upper secondary school. Participation of VET graduates in HE has generally been very low despite a general expansion of HE participation. It is not clear whether this is due to systemic obstacles, shortage of opportunities, or lack of interest in the HE programmes on offer. Initiatives to establish HE vocational programmes have increased opportunities but the results were quite different from the vision of HE vocational education many stakeholders had. The recent changes to HE admission requirements were applauded by many as an important milestone for increasing the standing of VET. But others have warned that the effectiveness will be determined by implementation as further admission requirements are decided on a departmental level and this will define the actual opportunities for entry. Overall, the development of access to HE for VET graduates in Iceland seem to show that even if VET has traditionally been a distinct pathway, the efforts of the authorities to open HE for VET graduates have generally been towards integration of VET into the academic system (Cedefop, 2020a). The gatekeepers of both the VET and the academic systems (f.i. stakeholders in the world of work and the university level) have resisted these efforts. How these tensions will play out in practice will in part determine the future of VET in Iceland and whether pluralistic education will dominate or if VET will remain distinctive from the general academic pathways.

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