Global human development strategies and policies recognise the right to mobility as the ability and freedom for people to choose their place of residence (UN, 2015; UNDP, 2009). Having framed the phenomenon of human mobility as a global policy challenge has allowed the migration issue to be brought into the United Nations context, with an explicit reference within the Sustainable Development Goals (McGregor, 2020) and with respect to multiple dimensions that connote the relationship between Migration, the 2030 Agenda and Human Development (ODI, 2018). Migration Studies (Bastia & Skeldon, 2020) has been dealing for decades with the migration-development nexus, the evolution of the concepts of causes, determinants, and drivers of migration (Carling & Collins, 2018), and the migration aspiration-ability framework that affects the realization of a voluntary or involuntary migration project (Carling, 2002; Carling & Schewel, 2018). Migratory aspiration refers to the desire to undertake a migratory project having the possibility to do so, to increase one's aspirations for a possible or potential future (Carling & Collins, 2018), with a future-oriented outlook (Appadurai, 2007) towards an imaginary space alternative to the present (Schiffauer, 2018). The increase of migratory aspiration may grow as a function of the differential between personal aspirations and limited opportunities offered by the life context (de Haas, 2010), but the mere existence of this mismatch does not always automatically translate into migration (de Haas, 2021). Educational research in the field of migration has begun to be interested in the processes of social transformation underlying migration phenomena, with a focus on the building of a free and dignified lives (Mecheril, 2018). The capabilities and human development approach (Nussbaum, 2012; Sen, 1989) has had the merit of shifting the focus to how human mobility can be thought of: freedom and the exercise of that freedom (UNDP, 2009). The critical-transformative approach of research in adult education involves subjects and sees them engaged in processes of transformation of their own educational conditions (Federighi, 2018). Defining the educational conditions of a potential migrants can help to understand how and in which situations the emergence of an aspiration can occur. The migratory aspiration alone cannot contain and define the learning potential dimension of human mobility, which affects the subject and his/her context (Del Gobbo, 2007): educational conditions, personal and professional aspirations, previous experiences, motivations, skills, resources, and desires for change of the migrant person. These are variables that influence the migratory project and define the migratory potential from which to build intentional life projects both in countries of origin and destination. The learning potential dimension in the construction of a migratory project allows to formalize that typology of human mobility that can be defined as Potential Im/Mobility, which overcomes the category of involuntary immobility and refers to people who, not realizing a migration project due to the absence of sufficient ability and resources, possess a variable migratory potential which, if developed, can favour in their country of origin the construction of life projects that can include a future migratory choice, also the result of the development of new skills (De Maria, 2021). The questions research that guided the work concerned the desire to investigate and go beyond the migratory aspiration, describing the relationships between the variables that each subject brings with him/her and that can be related to the dimension of subjective and contextual learning potential. The aim was to define those factors on which to intervene and through which to favour the construction of alternative life projects to the desire to migrate. The analysis of migratory potential can facilitate the definition of problems related to human mobility and guide the implementation of educational-transformative actions in the territories concerned.

The work carried out in Ivory Coast between 2017 and 2019 focused on the potential migration of young people aged 15-34. The empirical research was observational, multilevel, with varying levels of structuring and the triangulation of theories, methods, and data. It followed a qual-quan approach, in line with the methodological framework of Mixed Methods Research. The design was exploratory-sequential, where the research findings of the qualitative phase allowed the construction of the quantitative research instruments (Creswell & Clark, 2011). The objectives were: 1. the exploration and understanding of the phenomenon studied, capturing the point of view of all the actors involved; 2. the description and explanation of the relationships between the variables investigated, to obtain an analysis model transferable to other contexts. The research process included: the implementation of a first phase of qualitative research, with desk analysis, stakeholder mapping, semi-structured interviews, focus groups and participant observation, aimed at identifying the main categories describing the phenomenon under investigation; a second quantitative-qualitative phase, through the administration of a semi-structured survey, for the definition of the variables that describe the potential migratory profiles of Ivory Coast and the construction of categories of analysis useful for the interpretation of the results; a third quantitative phase, aimed at the validation of a scale to measure the migratory potential and of a multidimensional analysis model. Sampling was non-probabilistic, reasoned and by criteria pertinent to the object of study, the aims and characteristics of each phase. The following actions were carried out: mapping of 72 local and international stakeholders; 6 semi-structured interviews with privileged witnesses; 5 focus groups with 61 young potential migrants; 1265 semi-structured surveys in the second phase; 340 structured surveys with a scale measuring migratory potential in the third phase. To share and interpret the results, from the point of view of collaborative research between insiders and outsiders, the following actions were carried out: 6 presentations of the research and results; 1 focus group with young potential migrants; 1 workshop with university students; 2 focus groups with the team of field operators. The research included participation and training of a team composed of researchers and operators from the Ivory Coast. A structured research protocol guided the design of the actions, the construction of the tools and the collection of data. Data processing was carried out using both qualitative (content analysis) and quantitative (basic statistical processing, factor analysis and modelling) methods.

The Migratory potential can be defined as a theoretical construct and an analysis model of human mobility, composed of: characteristics of the migration project, variables that define the educational conditions of the potential migrant, migratory aspiration and learning potential. As a model, it favours: the understanding of mobility typologies and the reasons why people plan a migration project; the analysis of migration drivers and the definition of potential migration profiles; the construction of targeted and evidence-based policies and measures. The outcomes of the research were: 1. the identification of three differentiated migration profiles (worker, student, unemployed), in relation to some significant variables such as level of education, personal profile, migration determinants, life project; 2. the validation of the construct of migratory potential, the validation of a measurement scale and the construction of an analysis model; 3. the definition of a research and intervention approach aimed at the creation of transferable empirical evidence. Factor analysis allowed the validation of the scale with 47 items and the construction of two matrices with 9 factors for the construct of migration aspiration and 8 factors for the construct of learning potential. The modelling of the factor structures made it possible to estimate the relationships between factors and constructs. The factors with the highest predictive ability are: 1)Policy inadequacy; lack of job opportunities; self-efficacy; spirit of adaptation to contexts; desire for self-realisation (construct of migratory aspiration); 2) the social and collective dimension of the subject which, when lacking, can determine an increase in the migratory potential because places for participation and socialisation are absent; educational needs expressed and correlated to the possibility of being successful in work integration; importance attributed to the dream and the desire for change; awareness of possessing abilities and ideas to succeed in developing one's aspirations (construct of learning potential).

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