A number of studies have shown that non-traditional pathways to the eligibility to study may divert pupils from higher education (HE; e.g. Shavit & Müller 2006), and this may particularly be true for pupils from lower social strata. In this presentation we investigate whether and if so why different pathways to HE have an effect on the development of the intention to study and its motivational factors of pupils from different social backgrounds. In Germany as well as in many other countries, non-traditional pathways - mostly vocational oriented schools, but also comprehensive schools - lead to eligibility for HE. Drawing on the theory of planned behaviour (Ajzen 1991; Fishbein & Ajzen 1975), we assume that the intention to study is structured by motivational factors (= attitudes towards HE, the perceptions of expectations of relevant others, control beliefs). The development of motivational factors, and subsequently intention, is influenced by the college-going culture of schools which is formed in interactive adaptation to the goals and tasks of a school type and the norms and expectations of the pupil body (Palardy 2015; McDonough 1997). Based on these theoretical considerations, we hypothesize that the intention to study of pupils in vocationally oriented pathways develop less favourably than those of pupils in comprehensive schools, and that for pupils in vocationally oriented pathways the effects of social background on intentions and motivational factors become stronger due to school-type specific college-going cultures. Our database consists of the responses of 7,133 pupils in comprehensive schools and vocationally oriented two-year and three-year pathways to HE at the beginning (t1) and the end (t2) of upper secondary education. We use Propensity Score Matching to disentangle selection and socialization effects. Our results show that among vocationally oriented pathways, only two-year pathways divert pupils from HE, partly due to decreasing expectations of relevant others and attitudes towards HE. In contrast, the intention to study and the motivational factors among pupils in comprehensive schools as well as in three-year vocationally oriented pathways remain stable during upper secondary education. No differential effects of the pathways on pupils from different social backgrounds could be observed. Thus, vocationally oriented pathways do not in general divert their pupils from HE, but if they do so, all pupils are affected regardless of social background. Further studies should focus on the processes related to college-going culture which influence the intention to study of pupils in non-traditional pathways to HE.

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