Every year, approximately 35% of Slovenian high school graduates who complete academically the most demanding upper secondary education take the General Matura (GM) examinations in Slovenia. The GM is comprised of five subject exams: Slovene language, Mathematics, First foreign language, and two subjects chosen by the student from a selection of over 30 subjects. The GM score in Slovenia is calculated as the sum of grades received in the five subject exams. The score can range from 10 (2+2+2+2+2), the lowest passing grade, to 34 (8+8+8+5+5), the highest possible score. Success on the GM is considered equivalent to completing upper secondary education, and in cases where university study programs have a limited number of applicants, GM scores are used as a selection criteria in the admissions process.

The use of GM scores for university admissions has been studied multiple times (Bucik, 2001; Cankar, 2000; Sočan, Krebl, Špeh & Kutin, 2016) with findings similar to research on external examinations in other countries (Kuncel, Hezlett, & Ones; 2001).  However, there is a lack of research on the associations between GM scores (achieved at the age of 19) and various measures of personal success later in life and professional careers at ages 33-40 in national and international literature. In public discussions, you can often hear assertions that students’ school achievements and results on external exams have no relevance for later success on a labour market, income in their professional career, or other measures of success.  Despite being a high-stakes examination, GM has not been systematically examined to determine its role and long-term value in the Slovenian educational system.

Our research aims to explore the predictive value of GM scores on socio-economic status (SES) and specifically on yearly income later in life for several cohorts of students. Our null hypothesis is that GM scores do not predict SES or yearly income of students in their professional careers.

While it is commonly assumed that success on the GM examinations at the end of upper secondary education is associated with success at university and to some extent later in professional careers, such claims are difficult to verify scientifically due to a lack of representative and valid data. This research aims to provide a deeper understanding of the associations between GM scores, socio-economic measures and personal success in professional careers.

We will utilize databases of National Examinations centre that will include whole cohorts of students taking General Matura between years 1995 and 2001, linking them to databases of Slovenian Statistical Office on yearly personal income for 2016 as reported in national tax database. We will also use other databases from National Statistical Office to create socio-economic status (SES) measure for each individual using also data on completed level of education, value of real estates owned and status of occupation. As highest GM scores (30-34) are relatively rare, we will join cohorts together for the analysis. This will also increase statistical power. If we assume that GM graduates typically needed about five more years of university studies after GM before they entered labour market, then in the year 2016 they mostly had 10-16 years of professional career behind them. This should enable us to see some long-term effects on their income in the data. We will explore regression models predicting yearly income or SES of graduates and use R as statistical environment for most analyses.

General Matura examinations test students in many different ways and they include written and oral/internal parts, include multiple choice and open ended items, even essays and are both in form and content well aligned with curriculum. Students, who excel and achieve highest scores, most likely possess the combination of knowledge, skills, attitudes and perseverance that will enable them success in later stages of their life – at university or in the labour market. Previous studies (Bucik, 2001; Cankar, 2000; Sočan, Krebl, Špeh & Kutin, 2016) suggest that the success at General Matura is associated with success at university. We therefore expect that it is also associated with income or SES as some of possible measures of that success later in person’s career. Although the association should be there, expected predictive validity for selected measures of success of an individual will probably be low since individual aspirations, interests, career choices, motivation and many other factors not included in our model contribute and shape person’s career. The size of associations or the lack of them will also provide insight for discussions about importance of school and school outcomes for life. Regardless of someone’s position on engaging and often hot-tempered public discussion about meaning of GM scores or school outcomes in general this research will provide some new facts that can complement opinions and anecdotal arguments mostly present today. With these findings in sight, the General Matura should not be seen as a goal in itself but as an indicator of person’s academic qualities that imply a success later in life.

Bucik, V. (2001). Napovedna veljavnost slovenske mature[Predictive validity of Slovenian Matura]. Psihološka obzorja, 10(3), 75-87. Cankar, G. (2000). Napovedna veljavnost mature za študij psihologije [Predictive validity of Matura for Psychology Study course]. Psihološka obzorja, 9(1), 59.-68. Kuncel, N. R., Hezlett, S. A., & Ones, D. S. (2001). A comprehensive meta-analysis of the predictive validity of the Graduate Record Examinations: Implications for graduate student selection and performance. Psychological Bulletin, 127(1), 162–81. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.127.1.162 Sočan, G., Krebl, M., Špeh, A. & Kutin, A. (2016). Predictive validity of the Slovene Matura exam for academic achievement in humanities and social sciences. Horizons of Psychology, 25, 84-93.