The COVID 19 pandemic heavily affected the education system regardless of grade level.  The impact on lower grade levels, Primary and Secondary was heavier than in Higher Education (HE). 

All over the world, the main effect of the pandemic on education system was to trigger a transition from on-site classes to online classes or a hybrid system. Furthermore, this transition had to take place fast. In Portuguese education system for grades lower than HE it took place in just one month. Teachers had to learn how to use the online platforms to teach online. 

To implement this transition, students needed to have computers\laptops\cell phones and internet access to be able to follow classes online. For students from poorer and lower level of education families, this could only have led to serious failures in learning, lack of motivation. 

The impact of Covid 19 pandemic most probably affected students’ expectations to enroll HE in post Covid 19 pandemic times leading to a step back on the trajectory to overcome the gap in HE graduates between Portugal and EuroArea average levels [28,3% against 30,4% in 2021 (EUROSTAT DATABASE)] and the Millenium Sustainable Goals (Goal 4) subscribed by Portugal. 

Literature survey shows that expectations\motivation are important factors in the decision making process related to transition to Higher Education and that Covid 19 pandemic had a great negative impact on expectations [Chaturvedi, K. et al (2021)] .                                              

The OCDE PISA results 2015 (OECD 2017) emphasizes that expectations and motivation matter in the transition to Higher Education. This study showed that performance during Upper Secondary trajectory determines expectations and motivation. It also found that parents’ and peers’ expectations have impact on students’ones as well as age, sex, type of course followed in Upper Secondary in line with studies from Heagney & Benson 2017; Pinxten et al 2014; Brandle 2016; Mitchall & Jaegaer 2018; Goldrick-Rab et al (2007).

The positive influence of anticipation and temporal consistency of expectations is also corroborated by Sá e Tavares (2017), Britton et al (2019) and Toledo & Martinez (2018); The positive influence of motivation is mentioned as decisive by several authors [Martinez & Toledo (2018), Schlesinger, et al. (2016)]. 

In a previous study we looked at the impact of economic cycle on expectations\motivation regarding transition from Upper Secondary to Higher Education. 

We also analyzed how expectations were conditioned by individual and family’ socioeconomic background. Now we intend to see to what extent the impact of COVID -19 pandemic has reinforced these previous results. 

Literature review shows us a strengthening of inequality in access to HE, due to the impact of COVID 19 on household income, mainly for those that had not recovered from the 2011 crisis, as in Greece, as well as difficulties in accessing essential ICT to follow classes, etc. (Aristovnik et al 2020; Kara 2021; Tsolu et al 2021).

It also reveals an increase in the levels of anxiety and depression in students in USec as well as in HE, which is enhanced by the aforementioned situations of inequality (Aristovnik et al, op cit, 2020, Schmits et al 2021).

We will use data bases collected by the Statistic Department of the Ministry of Education trough surveys launched at the end of Upper Secondary (USec) and fourteen months after its end. These surveys allow us to follow student’s school trajectory from USec enrolment until the transition to HE. They gather information about thousands of youngsters and several variables covering individual and family’s socio-economic status, expectations about further schooling and the type of studies to do, reasons for not proceeding studies after USec graduation and expected professional trajectories. Because we want to compare the impact on expectations of economic cycle and the pandemic times, we have data for 2013, 2017 and 2021. We will use multi variable analysis, ACP and cluster analysis, contingency and discriminant analysis.

We expect to confirm that Covid 19 pandemic had stronger negative impact than the economic crisis on expectations/motivation about HE enrolment. We also expect to show that Covid 19 pandemic impact on expectations change with individual characteristics, previous school trajectory, family socioeconomic background, own employment etc… We also intend to compare the weight of these determinants with the ones during the crisis period.

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