The demand for workers in the labour market is changing as a result of the integration of different megatrends: digital, green and demographic (Opik et al., 2018). There is therefore a particular need to develop systems for forecasting labour demand.  Matching skills supply and demand is crucial for the development of education, economic development and inclusion policies.

To this end, Cedefop has developed a system that provides comprehensive estimates of labour market trends up to 2030 in all EU Member States. However, it has two limitations. First, its estimates are not directly linked to the system of skills provision, including Initial Vocational Education and Training (IVET). IVET is of particular interest because of its strategic importance for industrial development and employment (Spöttl & Windelband, 2021). This importance is growing in some countries (Germany, Denmark, Austria) with a high share of the labour force with post-secondary vocational education (Hoeckel & Schwartz, 2010).

Similarly, the data it provides is at the national level.  In this respect, the regional level offers a particularly appropriate scenario for analysing the dynamics generated between human capital and development (Canal Dominguez, 2021; Sevinc et al., 2020). Some authors have also highlighted the relevance of technical profiles linked to Vocational Education and Training studies (ILO, 2012) as conducive to regional development (Navarro, 2014;  (Retegi & Navarro, 2018; Spöttl & Windelband, 2021). Finally, within the same country, at the regional level, there may be significant differences between VET systems, both in terms of both supply and demand for VET workers (Moso-Diez et al., 2022).

For all the above reasons, the main contribution of the article is to present a new methodology for estimating the degree of horizontal mismatch of graduates with VET studies per Spanish region between 2020 and 2030, by economic sector (NACE code letter). This type of mismatch, known as ‘horizontal mismatch’  (Robst, 2007), occurs when the job held by a worker is not related to his or her field of study. This type of discrepancy is also known as ‘field-of-study mismatch’. This allows us to check whether VET fields of knowledge are properly aligned with labour market demand at regional level...

Among other things, the proper matching of supply and demand in the labour market can increase the productivity of firms because, when individuals are well matched to their occupations, the knowledge and skills that are acquired through education are optimally used in the labour market (Somers et al., 2019). This model is built based on Cedefop estimates and the Spanish Labour Force Survey, two accessible sources that would allow it to be replicated and improved for the rest of the regions in all EU-27 countries.

The forecasting model is built as follows: 1. Estimation of the net change of employment between 2020-2030 in the Spanish regions First, the Spanish sectoral inter-annual rate of change in employment 2020-2030 is calculated using the Cedefop Skills Forecast. These estimates are then applied to the 2020 Labour Force Survey (LFS) results for the Spanish regions by economic activity (NACE code letters). 2. Estimation of job vacancies (expansion/contraction and replacement) The job opportunities created each year in a given labour market are the result of two main sources. • On the one hand, they result from economic expansion or contraction • And, on the other hand, from the replacement of existing workers who leave the labour market (due to retirement, disability, etc.). In order to obtain the average replacement, the percentage of persons replaced in the period 2018-2030 by sector is applied to the number of employed persons reported by the LFS 2018. The result is divided by 12 (the total number of years in the period 2018-2030). This gives the annual average number of replacement job opportunities by sector in the Spanish labour market over the period 2018-2030. • Finally, the replacement job opportunities are added to the expansion/contraction opportunities and the result can be considered as the total job opportunities. 3. Allocation of vacancies to IVET The allocation is done by calculating the share of the labour force with IVET from 2014 to 2020. On the basis of this trend, the share of the workforce with IVET is estimated for the period 2020-2030. 4. Connection between each economic sector to the IVET knowledge fields Each economic sector can be linked to IVET fields of knowledge. For this purpose, the National Statistics Institute (INE) 2020 Survey on the Transition from Vocational Training to Labour Market Insertion (ETEFIL) is used. 5. Estimation of the IVET job opportunities by field of knowledge To estimate the number of IVET job openings corresponding to each field of knowledge, the percentage of IVET graduates per field of knowledge by sector is applied to each of the IVET job openings estimated for each sector. 6. Estimation of horizontal mismatch To calculate the horizontal mismatch, for each year between 2021 and 2030, the number of sectoral IVET job openings per field of knowledge is crossed with the number of graduates linked to these fields of knowledge in 2020.

-To create a predictive model that allows to know the demand of graduates with IVET studies by economic sectors at regional level in Spain for the period 2020-2030. -To make an initial calculation to determine whether the supply of IVET is adjusted, in terms of fields of study, to the demand of the labour market (horizontal mismatch). -To develop a forecasting model that can be adapted to the reality of other countries and regions within the EU-27.

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