How to get more young people to choose vocational pathways education has long been an emphasis in educational policy in Europe as well as the and the Nordic countries (e.g., Cedefop, 2020a; Helms Jørgensen, et al., 2018;). Iceland is no exception, and for a better part of century there have been concentrated efforts from different stakeholders to increase VET participation at the upper secondary education level (Eiríksdóttir, et al., 2018; OECD, 2013b) and this emphasis is still present in the current governmental policy. However, most upper secondary school students in Iceland choose academic pathways leading to matriculation over vocational pathways (Statistics Iceland, 2022). The percentage of upper secondary students enrolled in VET has remained around 30%, which is lower than the EU average of 47% (Cedefop, 2020b; Statistics Iceland, 2022). Therefore, despite education policy and stakeholder efforts, VET participation has not increased (Icelandic National Audit Office, INAO, 2017).

There are varied explanations for the preference of academic over vocational education, but the issue relates the disparity of esteem between vocational education and academic education (Billett, 2014; Billett et al., 2022; Field & Guez, 2018; UNESCO-UNEVOC, 2018). Academic education usually enjoys a higher status than vocational education vocational education is often considered a dead-end in the educational system as it generally has a narrow focus and usually does not provide access to higher education (Billett et al., 2022; Eiríksdóttir et al., 2018; Helms-Jørgensen et al., 2018; Nylund, et al., 2018). Academic pathways at upper secondary schools and higher education following graduation are seen as the key to upward mobility. Especially as academic drift and increased demand and requirement for university education have made this pathway predominant (Field & Guez, 2018; Jónasson, 2003). Also, the emphasis on employability, market readiness, and individual responsibility in vocational education can influence future social positions and prospects (Eiríksdóttir, 2022; Nylund, et al., 2018). The lower standing of vocational education can manifest in different ways, for instance through lower participation, increased drop-out, or the view that it is better suited to students who do not have the academic abilities for academic pathways (Billett et al., 2020). Addressing the issue of parity of esteem between academic and vocational pathways as it relates to the educational choices of young people is difficult as the decision of what to study is a complex one and under the influence of a constellation of factors, such as personal issues, practical concerns, or societal influences (Eiríksdóttir, 2022).

The research aims to investigate the standing of vocational education at the upper secondary level in Iceland, in comparison with academic pathways, through applications and admissions patterns over time. The goal is to assess changes in these patterns for the two pathways over the past 17 years, both through analysis of applicant characteristics (age, gender, place of residence – rural vs. urban) and type of field or program (sector and degree awarded). Understanding who applies for vocational education and how the application and admission patterns have changed over time is the first step in figuring out (1) why students do or do not choose VET in upper secondary schools, (2) why stakeholder efforts to increase the standing of VET have failed, and (3) where to target future efforts.

Official application and enrolment analysis is not available in Iceland, and therefore the development of interest in vocational education over time is not currently known. To investigate the standing of vocational education at the upper secondary level in Iceland, especially in comparison with academic pathways, it is necessary to understand the patterns of applications and admissions across programs and schools. Generally, those who apply to and enroll in vocational education in Iceland can be divided into two groups: (1) students graduating directly from compulsory education (age 15-16) and (2) students 17 years or older who are returning to upper secondary schools or transferring from academic programs. The admission of these groups is not independent as those graduating directly from compulsory education are required by law to be offered a placement at an upper secondary school, while the admission of the older students is at the discretion of the schools (Eiríksdóttir et al., 2022). Complicating the matter, interest in vocational education is also based on the vocational sector, field, and the school in question. Upper secondary schools have their own hierarchy, admission criteria, and attract different student populations (Eiríksdóttir et al., 2022; Eiríksdóttir et al., 2018). To map the application and enrolment patterns into academic and vocational pathways at the upper secondary education level for the past 17 years a database from the Directorate of Education will be used. The database contains information on all upper secondary school applications since 2005 (information prior to 2005 was not available) and includes information on both the applicants and the applications. Information on the applicants shows their age, gender, and place of residence (obtained from Statistic Iceland), when they applied to upper secondary school and which program and school they applied to. More detailed information about applicants could not be obtained for privacy reasons and information on race and background (such as SES) was not available. The database also contains information on the applications, whether they were accepted, rejected, or redirected. The application and admission patterns will be analyzed based on: (1) an overall distinction into academic and vocational pathways, (2) different categories of programs by field and focus (e.g., building sector, natural sciences, culinary arts) and type of program (ISCED level). The analysis will furthermore include information on the applicants – that is, what characterizes those who apply and enroll into different pathways and programs.

The results are expected to show the application and enrolment patterns into vocational and academic pathways at upper secondary schools in Iceland for the past 17 years. In particular, how the characteristics of applicants (age, gender, place of residence) differ over time based on whether they apply for academic or vocational pathways. Furthermore, how the application and enrolment patterns have changed for different fields and program types. Overall, the findings are expected to shed light on who applies and enrolls in vocational education in upper secondary schools in Iceland and who does not, which programs are popular and which are not, and how this has changed over time. By mapping these patterns, it becomes possible to hypothesize about the different factors affecting educational choice at the upper secondary education level for different subgroups of people. Allowing further investigation into the reasons and rationale for choice and more fine-grained differences among student groups. Understanding the factors governing the choice between academic and vocational pathways has importance, both for policy makers and stakeholders interested in enhancing the standing of VET and VET participation, as well as upper secondary school teachers and school leaders to better consider the needs of different groups when organizing programs and developing teaching practices. Even if the findings are based in a particular local context and educational system, they concern the general issue of disparity of esteem between academic and vocational pathways as well as the factors contributing to educational choice at the upper secondary education level, which are of a wider international relevance.

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