The effectiveness of initiatives in an educational context is often interpreted in terms of their impact on learning outcomes for every unit of investment. Governments invest a significantly high amount of money and effort in large-scale assessments (LSAs) with the intent to provide data-driven evidence to policymakers and researchers. Such evidence indicates the quality parameters of the education system in terms of learning level, equity, sustainability, and other predefined dimensions. Validity of such information is paramount due to its crucial role in decision-making for inputs, functional strategies, and goal setting for intended outputs, which if implemented as intended are most likely to lead to improvement in learning outcomes. Therefore, it is not an exaggeration to say that the effectiveness of LSAs can also be interpreted in terms of gain in learning outcomes or other dimensions, like any other measure.  However, measuring and demonstrating effectiveness of LSAs remains a challenge due to multiple reasons besides the complexities involved in efficacy and effectiveness research, like the notion that assessment data themselves offer solutions. Authors make a compelling argument that data including assessment data do not provide solutions, rather they assist the policy and research community by providing valid evidence and insights enabling informed policy formulation and implementation decisions. Rich data and information provided by large-scale assessments can further be used to analyze the impact of those policy decisions.

The paper consists of three major parts. The first part reviews existing initiatives and proposes a logic model based on reasoning to estimate the effectiveness through evidence and/or counterevidence. A logic model depicts how an initiative is expected to make a difference, using explicit statements of the activities that are likely to bring about the intermediate changes and the impact the initiative intends to make. The proposed model postulates that if evidence generated by LSAs at T1 point of time were utilized to make appropriate modifications in policy and interventions regarding inputs, processes, organizational functioning, governance, monitoring mechanism, and outputs can lead to lead to learning gains per unit of investment at T2 point of time.

 The second part builds on policy research and secondary analyses of large-scale assessments conducted in India to generate insights into the policy and practice that emerged from large-scale assessments. While the study primarily uses the assessment data and information from the National Achievement Survey (NAS) and the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER), it makes an effort to corroborate the findings with International and national LSAs in a similar context.

The third part recommends a policy implementation framework consisting of a series of steps to design system-specific strategies and monitor efforts. These steps are organized into two main phases: i) a ‘diagnostic’ phase to identify priority areas or enabling outcomes; ii) an ‘action’ stage to devise, implement and evaluate concrete policy interventions. The diagnostic stage mainly consists of cost-effective action-oriented surveys with a tiered approach, while the action stage consists of evidence-driven developmental goals and action plans for various levels of the system, alignment between all actors involved, customized interventions at school level with continuous monitoring in the cycle of 'assess-act-assess'

Education systems around the world have emphasized the need to transform assessments to improve learning. Proposed framework and model may be vital in designing learning systems to improve learning outcomes through effective systemwide assessments. However, there cannot be a one-size-fits-all policy mix. Feasible policy choices depend on contexts, social preferences, and political constraints. A robust and independent institutional framework, stakeholder engagement, and credible communication strategies are vital to enhancing the effectiveness of LSAs and eliminating learning poverty to achieve sustainable development goals. 

The aim of the study was to develop a framework to assess the effectiveness of large-scale assessments, gather evidence of effectiveness, and then recommend an implementation framework to enhance the effectiveness. Accordingly, a mixed research approach was adopted. The methodology of the study has three main components: 1. A literature review of relevant literature on the effectiveness of LSAs, policy initiatives as a result of LSAs, and implementation research in the context of system-level assessments 2. Secondary analysis of ASER and NAS data for the pre-COVID period 3. Drafting a logic model, followed by an implementation framework to utilize the meaningful findings of LSAs to improve quality dimensions of education, based on main findings of the review The scope of the literature review was not limited to large-scale assessments in India, but it also covered the role of international LSAs PISA, TIMSS, PIRLS, SACMEQ, PASEC and national LSAs like NAPLAN, and NAEP in educational policies and their impact. Investigators conducted the review along four key components: • Model of intent and model of change behind LSAs • Use of findings of LSAs in the formulation of policy measures • Framework of planning, implementation and monitoring of the policy initiatives emerged from LSAs • Effectiveness studies in LSAs or use of LSAs as a metric in education effectiveness studies Investigators also undertook secondary analyses of ASER data since 2005 to analyze the cohort relationships associated with learning achievement in basic literacy and numeracy among the learners in the age group corresponding to grades three to eight. ASER is an annual survey report published by the education non-profit Pratham and aims to provide reliable estimates of enrolment and basic learning levels. Basic reading and basic arithmetic abilities are assessed for learners in the age group of 5-16 years. Secondary analyses of NAS data for grade 3, 5 and 8, and learning data of few other countries from UNESCO Institute of Statistics (UIS) were also undertaken. Then triangulation technique was adopted to consolidate the findings.

The role of LSAs as a tool to improve the quality of education was recognized in 2000 with the launch of the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) by OECD. This triggered LSAs as policy research in many parts of the world. However, in the past 20 years learning level of students in many countries has either declined or plateaued. Despite spending several years in school, millions of children are unable to achieve basic literacy and numeracy skills (ASER, 2018). More than 50% of primary school children in South Asian nations were in learning poverty even before the COVID-19 pandemic, and this number is projected to be around 80% due to COVID-19- related school closures (World Bank et al., 2022). The report of NAS 2021 has indicated a similar trend (NCERT, 2022). The review showed that the majority of systems lack a concrete model regarding how LSAs are expected to impact the actions and learning outcomes. Measurement of learning achievement with no follow-up plan of action results in low efficacy of LSA initiatives. Experts have raised an alarm around the deepening learning crisis and recommended three complementary strategies: assess learning in order to measure and track learning better; act on the results or evidence to guide innovation and practice; and, align actors to remove barriers and make the whole system work for learning (World Bank, 2018). These complementary strategies may be utilized to derive a logic model as a common wireframe for planning, implementation, and monitoring of outcomes. The proposed tiered approach to assessments to identify priority areas followed by concrete evidence-driven policy interventions and monitoring mechanisms may enable LSAs-driven improvement in learning. The model can assist policymakers and researchers to estimate the impact of stage-specific decisions on outcomes, and disaggregate the impact of individual intermediary enablers on intended outcomes.

ASER Centre. (2018). Annual Status of Education Report (Rural) 2018. http://img.asercentre.org/docs/ASER%202018/Release%20Material/aserreport2018.pdf NCERT (2019). National Achievement Survey 2017. National report to Inform Policy, Practices and Teaching Learning. National Council of Educational Research and Training. Ministry of Education. Government of India. https://nas.gov.in/report-card/2017 NCERT (2022). National Achievement Survey. National Report 2021. National Council of Educational Research and Training. Ministry of Education. Government of India. https://nas.gov.in/report-card/2021 World Bank 2018. World Development Report 2018: Learning to Realize Education’s Promise. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1096-1. World Bank, UNESCO, UNICEF, USAID, FCDO, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. (2022). The State of Global Learning Poverty: 2022 Update. https://www.unicef.org/reports/state-global-learning-poverty-2022. MHRD. (2020). National Education Policy 2020. https://www.education.gov.in/sites/upload_files/mhrd/files/NEP_Final_English_0.pdf. Ministry of Education (erstwhile Ministry of Human Resource Development). Government of India.