Traditionally, educational careers can be conceptualized as sequences of transitions and episodes. Many studies have focused entirely on students’ transitions at certain ‘branching points’ in the educational system (Baumert, Maaz, & Trautwein, 2009; Breen & Jonsson 2000; Mare, 1980). These studies assumed that a student’s final educational attainment level resulted from a linear sequence of educational transitions. However, as educational systems have become more open and flexible, educational careers may be less fixed than previous research suggested. Consequently, a growing number of studies are investigating educational track mobility and its impact on educational inequality (Backes & Hadjar, 2017; Jacob & Tieben, 2009). Blossfeld et al. (2016) conducted a cross-national study analysing how secondary school systems influence students’ educational trajectories in 17 countries. They found that mobility between educational tracks, while uncommon, was an important component of a non-standard educational career.

Like those in some European countries, the upper secondary school system in Taiwan is characterized by its differentiated features. After completing the 9-year compulsory education, students make their transition to senior secondary school, which is composed of different tracks. Many countries with differentiated school systems, including Taiwan, have implemented educational reforms that have opened up educational systems and provide flexibilities for track mobility. Track mobility has therefore regarded as an opportunity to adjust initial track placement and to soften educational boundaries between school tracks (Bellenberg, 2012; Winkler, 2020). However, little empirical research has explored the phenomenon of track mobility, including its main predictors, in Taiwan. It is important to bridge this research gap.

Studies conducted primarily in Europe have produced three key findings. First, mobility between educational tracks is relatively limited. Second, downward mobility is more common than upward mobility; specifically, students are more likely to move from more to less academically demanding educational tracks than from less to more academically demanding education tracks. Third, track mobility can be predicted by both school achievement and social background, which suggests that it mirrors the initial track placement. Accordingly, through corrective measures taken in the context of educational careers to change tracks, the distinct features of differentiated school systems have been consolidated (Backes & Hadjar, 2017; Blossfeld et al., 2016; Ditton, 2013; Stubbe, 2009).

In differentiated school systems, track mobility is often framed as a measure to correct mistakes in students’ initial track placements. Thus, students’ satisfaction with track placement could be an important predictor of track mobility. Such issue is particularly important in this study, since track placement in Taiwan is mainly determined by nationwide examinations. Consequently, students may not be placed in their preferred educational track and thus could be motived to change their educational tracks. Therefore, this study attempts to extend previous studies to take students’ motivation into consideration. Several empirical studies based on the self-determination theory (SDT) of Ryan & Deci (2017) have confirmed autonomous motivation in choosing an educational programme positively predicts retention intention (Girelli et al, 2018; Jeno et al., 2021). Accordingly, this study will analyse the impact of autonomous motivation in initial track placements on track mobility by using longitudinal survey data.

The main objectives of this study are as follows:

(i) Uncover trends in track mobility among senior secondary school students in Taiwan.

(ii) Investigate the influence of academic performance and autonomous motivation in initial track placements on track mobility.

This study uses data from a government survey commissioned by the Ministry of Education of Taiwan. The data are housed in the Taiwan Upper Secondary Education Database. The dataset contains students’ educational and demographic information. In this study, we follow the educational trajectories of 16,477 students who entered into upper secondary education in 2017. Using a longitudinal framework, this study explores the influence of academic performance and autonomous motivation in initial track placements on track mobility. We used a series of logistic regression models, because the outcome variable involves mutually exclusively binary options. Our measure of academic performance is based on the results of the Comprehensive Assessment Program for Junior High School Students, which is a nationwide exam taken by all ninth-graders as they complete compulsory education in Taiwan. In the survey, students were requested to report their Comprehensive Assessment Program (CAP) grades. We assigned scores to the CAP grades achieved in five subjects, which range from low (C; 1 point) to high (A++; 8 points) grades. The scores for all five subjects were summed so that that the students’ academic performance scores ranged from 5 to 40. Autonomous motivation in choosing an educational track was assessed during the first survey, which was completed on entry into senior secondary schools. Students were asked to rate their level of self-determination when choosing an educational track using a 4-point Likert-type scale. While SDT proposes a multidimensional representation of motivation, Howard et al. (2017) conducted a meta-analysis to test the assumption of a motivational continuum that underlies SDT. Their results largely supported a continuum-like structure, suggesting that a single motivation score representing self-determination can be used. Thus, we used a single motivation score as a measure of autonomous motivation.

1. Students at the upper secondary education level in Taiwan rarely changed their educational tracks; those who did so accounted for less than 2% of all participants. 2. Mobility between general and technical tracks was asymmetric. Transfer from the general to technical track was more frequent than transfer from the technical to general track. The ratio was approximately 4.5: 1. 3. Track mobility could be predicted by autonomous motivation for choosing the initial educational track; the less autonomous a student was in terms of determining their initial track placement, the higher the probability that they would switch tracks. 4. Transfer between general and technical tracks was influenced by students’ CAP grades. However, the impact of CAP grades differed according the direction of the transfer. Transfers from the general to technical track were negatively influenced by CAP grade, whereas transfers from the technical to general track were positively influenced by CAP grade.

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