As part of the UK government’s ‘levelling up’ agenda, there is currently huge appetite amongst policy makers to give Further Education (FE) a central role in addressing the regional divides that characterise the UK. UK FE colleges tend to recruit very locally and are often best equipped to deal with local skills shortages within particular regions, whereas higher education graduates are often more geographically mobile (resulting in a ‘brain drain’ from certain regions).

Our presentation will outline research conducted in collaboration with the UK’s Social Mobility Commission focussed on exploring the outcomes of the different educational paths followed by young people aged 16, and how these further vary according to social background and geography. It sought to answer questions such as, do those from more advantaged backgrounds see high returns regardless of their post-16 educational choices? How are the higher gains of some educational pathways (like attending an elite HEI) distributed according to class, gender and ethnicity? How does geography play into monetary returns, especially given the more localised employment trajectories of FE colleges? Are high returns from certain FE courses dependent on geography (and so on the strength of local and regional economies)?

Unlike graduate returns of which there has been considerable study (e.g. Hussain et al., 2009; Tomlinson, 2012; Naylor et al., 2016) there are few studies that have considered the returns of FE study. Moreover, the limited research to date (e.g. Buscha and Urwin, 2013; Bibby et al., 2014; Urwin and Cerqua, 2017) has tended to focus on comparing outcomes for individuals that complete FE programmes with those that drop out. This research sought to take a more comprehensive, real-world approach by exploring how the choice of different educational pathways (e.g. FE vs HE) by otherwise similar individuals (in terms of attainment and individual characteristics) impacts their later earnings. Moreover, the project’s foregrounding of geography enabled important consideration of how location further influences the typical returns gained from certain pathways.

This research makes an important contribution to knowledge of the outcomes of FE study in the UK, highlighting ways in which FE could better help address the UK’s regional divides, as well as offering potentially important insights into the increased role FE could play within other countries with large regional disparities in employment opportunities like Italy and Belgium (OECD, 2016). The research further challenges the sometimes-negative preconceptions about career prospects following FE study in the UK. Indeed, unlike countries like Germany where vocational pathways often command respect (Greinert and Fraser, 2007), the UK’s highly stratified post-16 education system often privileges HE and especially elite HE study over FE. As the theme of ECER 2023 suggests however, diversity in education is key. Whilst our findings support previous research (e.g. Wakeling and Savage, 2015) that study at an elite HEI typically leads to the highest returns, we also show how a diverse range of educational pathways can bring success and highlight less commonly privileged routes to social mobility.

The study used quantitative analysis of Longitudinal Education Outcomes (LEO data) – a dataset which links individuals’ education data to data on their later employment and earnings. The data used came from three cohorts of individuals (those aged 16 in academic years 2005/06, 2008/09 and 2011/12) to ensure that the conclusions drawn were not unique to one cohort or period of time. Controlling for attainment at age 16, the average financial returns of following different educational trajectories (e.g. FE vs non-elite HE) were explored as well as how these varied according to gender, social class and ethnicity. Initially, descriptive statistics were produced. These included frequency counts such as the number of individuals completing FE and non-elite HE and cross tabulations examining FE and non-elite HE study by gender, social class, ethnicity, and location. We then proceeded to a series of regression models examining the relationships between different educational trajectories and earnings, controlling for individuals’ attainment at age 16 and their background characteristics. Finally, multilevel modelling - a technique for accounting for clustering within data which enables the nature of between group variability to be identified – was employed to examine differences between local authorities and regions.

The research demonstrated the important impact of educational pathway followed for individuals’ later financial returns. In line with previous research (e.g. Wakeling and Savage, 2015), it confirmed that elite HEI attendance leads on average to the highest earnings, with less selective HE and FE study having much more variable returns. Like previous research (e.g. Savage, 2015; Friedman and Laurison, 2019), it further showed the important impact of social background for individuals’ future earnings, with those from more advantaged backgrounds tending to have high returns regardless of their post-16 educational choices. Notwithstanding the advantages brought by higher social class background and elite HE study, the research nevertheless identified certain pathways that may offer better chances of social mobility than others for working-class individuals without the desire or necessary attainment to attend an elite HEI, bringing important implications for policy and practice. Finally, it highlighted the importance of geography, with location shown to affect – in some cases substantially - the returns of following certain pathways. Given the typically more localised employment trajectories of FE students, this finding has important implications for the UK’s Levelling Up agenda.

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