In England, the Office for Standards in Education, Children’s Services and Skills (OfSTED) introduced a new Education Inspection Framework in 2019. Consequently, 3000 previously exempt 'Outstanding' schools are re-inspected from 2021 to 2025. In January 2023, Ruth Perry, a primary school headteacher, committed suicide following her school's downgrade from ‘Outstanding’ to ‘Inadequate’. Headteachers’ and teachers’ unions criticised OfSTED's judgments and their detrimental impact on people’s mental health. Eventually, Perry's school was re-inspected and upgraded to 'Good.' An inquest tied Perry's suicide partly to the initial inspection. A Coroner urged OfSTED to provide a detailed response and timetable, outlining the actions taken or planned to prevent future deaths. In response, OfSTED organised emergency training for inspectors to identify signs of stress and anxiety among school staff and leaders, indicating a belated acknowledgement of inspection-induced fear.

Amid the ongoing debates about OfSTED’s fitness for purpose and effectiveness, this paper employs complexity theory to examine why OfSTED has evolved into a rigid, powerful regime and how to lead meaningful changes if we envision a more humane, just and reliable inspection system.

This paper answers three research questions:

(1)         What constitutes a complex inspection system in England?

(2)         How do the underlying power dynamics lock the education inspection system in?

(3)         How to strategize for a new education inspection system?

Through the lens of complexity theory, educational inspection operates as an open system in which various agents—inspectors, schools, parents, teachers’ unions, education policymakers and implementers—exchange information and engage in self-organised interactions, independent of external control (Turner & Baker, 2019). Some interactions adhere to established rules outlined in the Education Act 2005, inspection frameworks and handbooks, while others evolve organically, adapting to the dynamic environment. Over time, the system displays new properties that cannot be derived from its original components. This phenomenon is referred to as emergence (Morrison, 2008; Turner & Baker, 2019). For instance, despite being instructed not to undertake specific preparations, schools have learned to purchase and exchange information about specific inspectors’ personalities and their preferred data collection methods, aiming to appease inspectors and secure favourable inspection results (Author, 2023). This exchange of information and resources among agents has given rise to a new consultancy market selling inspection solutions.

Meanwhile, agents use imperfect knowledge to make choices and decisions. They co-evolve with the system, potentially adapting their agendas, beliefs and preferences over time. For example, after researchers discovered that Her/His Majesty’s Inspectors (HMIs) (full-time OfSTED employees) appeared harsher than OfSTED Inspectors (OIs) (freelancing inspectors paid a day rate) in assessing schools, both groups consciously adjusted their judgments in the opposite direction, inadvertently creating new forms of bias (Bokhove et al., 2023; Jerrim et al., 2023a). Another study indicates that schools employing OIs are more likely to receive an ‘Outstanding’ or ‘Good’ rating and significantly less likely to receive an ‘Inadequate’ or ‘Requires improvement’ result (Jerrim et al., 2023b). These findings can influence school recruitment strategies and teachers’ professional development plans.

In summary, education inspection in England represents a complex system wherein interdependent agents exchange information and resources in a self-organised manner. These agents learn, adapt and co-evolve with the system, utilising information acquired from and feeding new information into the system (Davis, 2008). Initial conditions, history and the sequence of events have established a path, impacting the future development of the system (Boulton et al., 2015). Given these inherent characteristics, addressing challenges faced by the current inspection system necessitates complexity thinking. Superficial changes—such as removing a few problematic inspectors, altering inspection frameworks or increasing inspector training—will prove inadequate if we leave the underlying power dynamics unexamined (Biesta, 2010).

This theoretical paper employs a critical lens to examine secondary data from the following sources. Firstly, it reviews articles on complexity theory and complexity thinking, applying them to illustrate the constituents of the complex education inspection system. Furthermore, underpinned by the theoretical framework, it explains why OfSTED has grown more powerful over the past three decades and how they employed complexity reduction (Biesta, 2010) and self-revitalisation (Boulton et al., 2015) approaches to lock the system in and block challenges from other agents. Secondly, this paper reviews the most recent research publications on the effectiveness of OfSTED to debunk some long-standing beliefs held by OfSTED and the public. For instance, the 2023 Working in Schools report revealed correlations between inspections and teachers’ reduced involvement in decision-making, less control over working hours, weaker support from line managers and increased difficulty in taking time off (Felstead et al., 2023). Another report highlighted the limited range of subjects assessed during the two-day inspection, casting doubt on OfSTED’s judgment regarding the overall breadth and balance of the curriculum (Walker, 2023b). According to ParentKind’s (2023) survey results, 39.34% of parents do not read schools’ OfSTED reports and 59.04% do not find these reports useful. Additionally, a student-led project on reviewing inspection practices concluded that “OfSTED as an entity does more harm than good” (Shahbaz & Perez, 2023, para. 5). Thirdly, this paper examines and compares inspection frameworks and policies from Scotland (Education Scotland, 2023) and Wales (Estyn, 2023) with those of England, providing valuable lessons and potential pathways for OfSTED. Key differences can be found in the high- or low-stakes nature of inspections, the inspection cycle and sampling approach, the role of school self-evaluation, the relationship between inspectors and school practitioners, the composition of inspection teams, the format of inspection results and the post-inspection follow-up activities. Lastly, after obtaining permission from the survey initiator, the author analysed over 3000 entries about teachers’ OfSTED inspection experiences collected via a Twitter survey. With the protection of anonymity, this survey presents an authentic picture of how school teachers and leaders perceive inspections, contrasting with their performativity during high-stakes inspections.

Complexity theory suggests there are multiple pathways leading to the future. Some agents may prefer a more gradual approach to improving the current inspection system. Other agents who have experienced more adverse effects may advocate for a radical revolution of the system or even its abolition. The value of complexity thinking lies “between finding what works and yet catalysing innovation and change, between intention and responsiveness” (Boulton et al., 2015, p. 167). To lead and strategize for a new inspection system, change agents can consider the following recommendations. Firstly, reducing the high-stakes nature of inspections by replacing the one-word headline grading with an informative report. The grading scale, being a reductionist tool, oversimplifies complex educational activities, thereby distorting the educational progress it aims to monitor (Donaldson, 2018). Secondly, utilising school self-evaluation as a starting point to customise the inspection process, foster professional dialogues and facilitate cross-pollination of ideas. Importantly, both inspectors and school practitioners should unlearn the decades-old practice of using school self-evaluation as a compliance tool. Thirdly, separating schools’ compliance with legal requirements from their improvement capacity. The former requires school leaders’ immediate responses and follow-up checks. In contrast, underperforming schools, often due to inadequate resources and capacity, should be afforded an opportunity to internally address these issues and undergo re-inspection before OfSTED publishes the results to the public. Fourthly, paying switching costs while incentivising early change adopters. Transitioning a complex system into a new era demands considerable switching costs—such as financial, temporal, procedural, cognitive, psychological and relational costs. It is crucial to allocate contingency costs to offset unforeseen risks (Wigmore, 2019). Early change adopters play a pivotal role by sharing successful stories and encouraging others to join the change process. Their engagement should be incentivised through free training, public recognition and early access to resources and networks.

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