The global COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly affected education systems worldwide, leaving an enduring impact on students across diverse grade levels. Extensive literature, including reports from the World Economic Forum (WEF, November 14, 2022) and UNESCO (2021), underscores the widespread consequences of the pandemic, revealing significant learning losses at all educational stages. Notably, lower grades have experienced more substantial setbacks than higher education (HE), particularly in subjects like Mathematics and Reading.

The swift transition from traditional to online or hybrid learning formats, imperative for curbing the virus's spread, posed considerable challenges for students. The urgency of this shift, exemplified by Portugal's one-month adaptation period, emphasized the critical need for students' access to digital resources. Unfortunately, students from economically disadvantaged backgrounds encountered heightened barriers, resulting in severe learning setbacks and diminished motivation.

A comprehensive literature review (Fricks, C. (2020), Garcia, E. & Weiss, E. (2020), UNESCO (2021), Dorn et al. (2021), Stark et al. (2022)) demonstrates the exacerbation of inequality in learning and access to Higher Education (HE) due to COVID-19.

This research builds upon prior studies exploring factors influencing academic achievement, dropout rates, and delays in HE enrollment, demonstrating how these factors vary with economic cycles. In this study, we aim to assess the extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic has intensified these existing challenges. Additionally, we will evaluate the effectiveness of measures taken by the Portuguese government to address pandemic-induced learning losses by comparing academic performance trends from 2018 to 2022.

We will use data available for 2018, 2021, and 2022 collected by the Ministry of Education’s Statistics Department, with information about students' trajectories from Upper Secondary (USec) to HE. The dataset also includes information on socio-economic status, educational expectations, reasons for not pursuing further studies, and academic performance in Math and Portuguese exams. We will use multivariable analysis in this research.

Anticipated findings include confirming a substantial negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on students' academic achievement and HE enrollment. Moreover, the research aims to elucidate how the pandemic's impact varies based on individual characteristics, prior academic trajectory, family socio-economic background, and employment status. By comparing these determinants before and after the pandemic, the study seeks to provide valuable insights into the evolving landscape of students' academic challenges.

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