This explorative literature review aims to examine the aspirations of youth in situations of migration in Europe as reported by recent empirical studies.  Although issues of migration have come to occupy an important place in European policy and public debates (Eberl  et al 2018; Goubin , Ruelens & Nicaise 2022), an overview is still lacking at the intersection of youth, migration and futures. How newcomer youth perceive their future in society and the futures to which they aspire have consequences for the strategies they adopt in studies, choice of career path and integration. Extended periods in limbo and uncertain futures can in the longer term affect their faith in institutions, their understanding of democracy and the extent and manner of their civic engagement.

The ways we understand, perceive, conceptualise and represent the future play a fundamental role, both in human societies and in individual lives. Futures are closely linked to power and agency. Clearer understanding of constraints and options could inform more responsible policy or enable marginalised groups to act more effectively, based on their capacity to ‘read the world’ (Valladares 2021). While social elites mobilise considerable resources in shaping futures the capacity to imagine alternative futures (Rubin & Kaivo-Oja 1999; Amsler & Facer 2017) can also open pathways to empowerment for groups in situations of disadvantage.

Migrant youth face disadvantages that are equal to or worse than other marginalised groups, making access to education a challenge. Basic needs such as food, housing and healthcare must be met before educational needs are addressed. Other barriers include language acquisition, trauma, interrupted education due to exile and unrecognised previous qualifications (Gateley 2015). Nevertheless, studies in various contexts suggest that young refugees show strong resilience, positive future expectations and high motivation at school, which Lynnebakke and Pastoor (Lynnebakke & Pastoor 2020) examine within the concept of educational resilience— ‘the heightened likelihood of educational success despite personal vulnerabilities and adversities brought about by environmental conditions and experiences’. Lynnebakke and Pastoor understand both resilience and outcomes as produced in continuous interaction between individuals and features of their environment. This apparent paradox between positive future expectations and challenging circumstances has been theoretically explained in diverse manners, including ‘immigrant optimism’, ‘dual frame of reference’, ‘blocked opportunities’, ‘information deficit’ or ‘ethnic capital’ (Lynnebakke & Pastoor 2020).

The vision young people have of their possible positions in society, in relation to what careers and employment possibilities will exist in the future, influences their motivation to invest in upper secondary education and to pursue career paths that require post-secondary qualifications (Facer 2011). Teachers are often not well prepared to teach diverse classrooms, but formal education is important for newcomer youth, particularly in the case of refugees (Alesina, Carlana, Ferrara & Pinotti 2018). Furthermore, research suggests that teacher expectations have a significant impact on educational achievement (Papageorge, Gershenson & Kang 2020).

For students from disadvantaged groups, education and employment aspirations may represent prospects for their families and communities to escape hardships and historical constraints (Webb 2021). Nevertheless, Goring et al. (Goring, Kelly, Carbajo, Brown & 2023) caution that framing young people’s perceptions of their future as limited to aspirational trajectories of education and employment does not do justice to the complexity of how youth see themselves in the world today. They argue that this framing rather corresponds to a reduction of human life to value in economic production systems. This literature review will therefore cover both research on education and employment, as well as studies that deal with other topics.

Steps undertaken for the review include specification of inclusion and exclusion criteria; use of information sources to search for relevant research publications, as well as review, coding and categorisation of the selected research; and presentation and discussion of the review findings. Eligibility criteria The following inclusion criteria were applied in the selection of publications yielded in the searches: (a) social science publications; (b) relevant to understanding future aspirations of youth with migrant or refugee background; (c) empirical studies, or reviews, meta-analyses and critical analyses based on and summarizing empirical research; (d) the case or sample is located in Europe; (e) peer-reviewed publications in indexed research journals; (f ) written in English; (g) published 2010-2022. For the purposes of this review, Europe was delimited to EU and EFTA countries, including the UK as former EU member. Following UN definitions, adolescents and youth were here limited to the age range 10–24, and publications exclusively focusing younger or older individuals were excluded, while relevant publications with at least some respondents from our age range were included. Similarly, we included publications that com- pared youth with migrant background to youth with no migrant background. After application of inclusion and exclusion criteria, the search yielded 30 publications, relevant to the research questions. Reliability and risk of bias To enhance the reliability of the review, only peer- reviewed articles published in indexed research journals were selected. Both authors developed the keywords and conducted the search of databases to reduce the risk for mistakes or bias. The selection and analysis of the sample was also developed by joint discussions. Synthesis of results All articles were thoroughly reviewed and categorised according the following parameters: the writer and year of publication, the country and context where the research was conducted, the sample, the methodology used and the key themes. Contextual analysis (Svensson & Doumas 2013) was used to identify main categories across studies that describe the phenomenon under investigation, namely young migrants’ future aspirations in Europe based on peer-reviewed social science publications in the period 2010-2022. Contextual analysis is a methodology that advocates an open approach to the examined material. This approach is analytic, aiming both at the delimitation of main aspects of the phenomenon as a whole and as dependent of their contexts. By comparisons between the reviewed research articles, similarities and differences were discerned.

The studies were grouped under the following categories identified in the material: 1. Policy discourses and young migrants/refugees’ high aspirations and resilience; 2. Effects of residential segregation and regional inequalities within countries; 3. Construction of youth aspirations and expectations; 4. Fluid mobilities; 5. Coping with limbo and broken mobilities; 6. In between cultural and personal aspirations; 7. Constructing and reconstructing masculinities. The studies grouped under category 1 discussed young people’s experiences interpreted against the background of constraints and hardships inflicted by migration policy. In category 2, it appeared that many of the issues relating to cross-border migration resembled those affecting youth opportunities and migration within countries. These included not only unequal opportunities to study and to access aspired future careers but also young people’s ties to family, friends and place. In category 3, different factors influencing the construction of aspirations were focused. These could, for instance, be related to discourses and expectations in families, communities and socioeconomic backgrounds or experiences at school. Category 4 focused on intra-European migrants. These studies concerned young adults who had voluntarily decided to migrate, although the move in many cases was motivated by economic crises in the country of origin. By contrast, studies in category 5 concerned refugee youth, in situations of forced displacement, whose aspirations were strongly affected by their status and the asylum process. Studies in category 6 highlighted young people’s efforts to find their way and formulate their goals in a space of tension between their personal interests and culturally set expectations. Finally, the publications grouped under category 7 focused on the ways self and aspired life trajectories could be envisaged among youth and young adult men in situations marked by migration. Overall, the findings point to a fundamental mismatch between young migrants’ aspirations and the opportunities that specific policies offered.

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