having to navigate the turbulence and chaos of the whitewater of rapids (Covey, et al., 1994). Many times, as we lead organisations we are faced with turbulent times, the whitewater of rapids, when we are not sure about where we are heading, and yet we must lead the organisation forward, whether it be to calmer waters or potential peril. 

Despite the turbulence, education has been described as a ‘legacy sector, where it takes years – often generations – to bring about large-scale changes of methods, practices and operations’ (CB Insights, 2020, 6). A quarter of a century ago, Senge et al. (2000, 27-58) noted the slow rate of progress of the development of schools, and argued there was a need for more substantial and rapid change for schools to remain relevant. At the same time, the OECD (2001) released a set of six scenarios about the future of education, and two decades later, the OECD (2020, p. 7) revised their scenarios to four. These scenarios propose a range of more conservative to radical futures, and what is especially interesting is that all describe major change – no longer is incremental progression assumed. And with the advent of technology changes like AI and the range of augmented and virtual spaces available and yet to be created (Maxfield, 2019), the potential for major change has increased dramatically since the turn of the millennium. It is a complex time be in education and having models to guide our futures thinking and our leadership practice are helpful. 

We have developed a futures thinking model and a leadership model for uncertain times (Gurr, 2022; Jarni, Gurr & Adams, in press). The futures thinking model considers the present, and near and distant futures, and utlises best and next practice ideas, and taxonomies of the future (Voros, 2017) to consider how develop from our current practitces. The model draws on several sources including Leithwood (2008) and Hannon (2007, 2008) who were involved in discussions about best and next practice in education, Hannon and Mackay (2021) who took these ideasfurther by being more deliberate in thinking about future possibilities, Hannon, and Temperley (2022) who described outstanding current schools that signpost major education trends, and Jarni and Gurr (2024) who applied the model to university teaching and learning. 

Working with students in an era of disruption is challenging, ambitious and aspirational. Excellent educational leaders and teachers can be considered as stewards, who are continuously engaged in critical decisions and actions in their current political, social and cultural contexts, while proactively scanning the horizon of possibilities to “… educate learners for their future, not our past or present” (Hannon and Temperley, 2022, p. 23). Whilst papers that call for reimaging educational leadership are important (e.g. Netolicky & Duignan, 2024), having a trustworthy framework that works for turbulent times has practical significance for current educational leaders. Several years ago, Drysdale and Gurr (2017) wrote about leadership domains and capabilities that are helpful for leading in uncertain times. It is a model that helps educational leaders to consider important leadership ideas to frame thinking about their work (the seven domains), and then it makes practical suggestions about the type of work they might do (several capabilities described for each domain). In modified form (Jarni, Gurr & Adams, in press) the model has the following seven domains: influencing; leading self; setting directions; developing people; developing the organisation; improving learning and wellbeing; and, understanding context. In the centre are listed student, organisation and societal outcomes as the things leadership is trying to achieve.

We are presenting on a soon to be published essay that utilises the two conceptual frameworks just mentioned: the latest development of Gurr's Futures thinking model (Gurr, Jarni & Taylor, in press); and a modification of Drysdale and Gurr's (2017) Leadership in uncertain times domains and capabilities model. These models are described and then used to consider the future of education and educational leadership and illustrate this with examples related to the purposes of education and two capabilities from a proposed learning framework for the future - capabilities associated with agentic learning, and ethical and responsibility learning. In the presentation at ECER we will consider these examples and invite the audience to provide further examples.

We will have presented two models to help with the leadership work of participants. The first provides a best and next practice futures orientation, and the second a leadership model attuned to leadership in uncertain times. Combining these models into leadership practice will help participants to lead their educational organisation through the complexity and challenges of the next decade and beyond. The futures model helps in terms of predicting what education will be like over the next10- 20 or more years, and the leadership model provides seven important domains through which to frame leadership work, and provides many examples of the type of leadership practices that can be useful for times of uncertainty and whitewater. We are fully aware that the models need to be adapted so they suit individuals as educators and leaders, and the context they work in. The models are based on researched and sound ideas and provide useful and trustworthy platforms for individuals to develop their own futures mindset in education and educational leadership.

CB Insights (2020). Education In The Post-Covid World: 6 Ways Tech Could Transform How We Teach And Learn, September 2, 2020. Accessed December 3, 2024 from https://www.cbinsights.com/research/back-to-school-tech-transforming-education-learning-post-covid-19/ Covey, S. R., Merrill, A. R., & Merrill, R. R. (1994). First Things First: To live, to love, to learn, to leave a legacy. Simon and Schuster. Drysdale, L. & Gurr, D. (2017). Leadership in Uncertain Times, International Studies in Educational Administration, 45(2), 131-159. Gurr, D. (2022). Leadership of Schools in the Future. In A, Nir (Ed.) School Leadership in the 21st century: Challenges and strategies. Nova Publishers, p. 227-309. Gurr, D & Drysdale, L. (2020). Leadership for Challenging Times- Lessons from the past and capabilities for the future. Australian Educational Leader, 42(3), 28-31. Gurr, D. Jarni, N. & Taylor, A. (in press). Adopting a futures mindset in education and educational leadership, 'Australian Educational Leader'. Hannon, V. (2007). ‘Next Practice’ in education: A disciplined approach to innovation. Innovation Unit. Hannon, V. (2008). Should educational leadership focus on ‘best practice’ or ‘next practice’? Journal of Educational Change, 9(1), 77-81. Hannon, V. & Mackay, A. (2021). The Future of Educational Leadership: Five Signposts; CSE Leading Education Series. Centre for Strategic Education. Hannon, V., & Temperley, J. (2022). Future School: How schools around the world are applying learning design principles for a new era. Routledge. Jarni, N. & Gurr, D. (2024) A Futures Perspective on Learning and Teaching in Higher Education: An Essay on Best and Next Practices. Trends Higher Education, 3, 793–811. https://doi.org/10.3390/higheredu3030045 Netolicky, D.M. & Duignan, P. (2024). Reimagining educational leadership: Leading from the past and for the future, Australian Educational Leader, 64(3), pp. 8-13. OECD (2001). Scenarios for the Future of Schooling. What Schools for the Future. Schooling for Tomorrow. Center for Educational Research and Innovation, Schooling for Tomorrow Knowledge Bank. OECD (2020) Back to the Future of Education. Four OECD Scenarios for Schooling. OECD Publishing. Senge, P., Cambron-McCabe, N., Lucas, T., Smith, B., Dutton, J., & Kleiner, A. (2000). Schools That Learn: A Fifth Discipline Resource. Nicholas Brealey Publishing. Voros, J. (2017). Big History and Anticipation. In: Poli, R. (Ed.) Handbook of Anticipation. (Cham., Springer) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3_95-1