This paper examines empirical evidence from higher education research on student dropout intentions. Dropping out from university is associated with high individual and societal costs, a lack of innovation, a shortage of skilled workers, and a loss of competitiveness and diversity (Burk/Hetze 2023; Heublein et al. 2022; Bellmann/Leber 2019; Nairz-Wirth/Feldmann 2018). In addition, one of the European Union's goals is to achieve greater equality of educational opportunity – a goal that depends in part on reducing the number of students who drop out from university (Potapova 2025; Vossensteyn et al. 2015). With European universities already reporting high dropout rates within their specific systems (DAAD 2021, Vossensteyn et al. 2015), universities are under increasing pressure to implement measures to prevent student attrition. In this context, dropout intentions can be regarded as an early warning indicator, thus making it a relevant factor in empirical research and the design of effective prevention and intervention strategies (Deuer/Wild 2018).

Within the Austrian context, the average rate of attrition among bachelor’s students is approximately 30% (with respect to bachelor’s programs commencing at public universities during the winter semester 2016/17). It is important to note that most of the students dropping out from university appear to do so during the first two semesters of study (approximately 20%) (Haag et al. 2025). Consequently, it is evident that the transition to higher education represents a critical period for students, and a challenge for the development of their academic habitus. Addressing the issue at early stages, transition management and the strengthening of students’ resilience resources as part of their habitus development are crucial for their future academic and professional success (Frisby et al. 2020; Lane 2020). Moreover, the development of resilience resources and academic success is favoured by the existence and utilization of social networks at the university (social capital). The development of these networks during the transition to higher education poses another significant challenge for students (Berndt/Felix 2020; Hofmann et al. 2020). These influencing factors – including habitus development, resilience resources and building social networks – have been deeply challenged during the COVID-19 pandemic (e.g., distance learning, social isolation), which has increased their relevance in the context of higher education research on student attrition in recent years.

Recent studies on academic success rates at Austrian public universities indicate that male and female students perform nearly equally (Haag et al. 2025). However, additional research has revealed that women tend to withdraw from their studies more rapidly than men, should they choose to drop out (Thaler et al. 2021). Thaler et al. (2021) further assert that the observed gender differences in dropout rates are not inherently attribute to gender itself, but rather to underlying factors that in turn are influenced by gender, such as school choice.

Despite the extensive body of literature addressing university dropout, the prior intention to withdraw from university has been less comprehensively examined by higher education research. While the effects of transition management, resilience, social networks and gender on university dropout have been explored separately, a combined analysis from a longitudinal perspective is also rare. The research questions addressed in this paper are as follows:

(1) How do transitional experiences, resilience, and social networks within the university environment affect the dropout intentions of bachelor's students, with a special focus on gender issues, over time?

(2) What possible guidelines for prevention strategies can be derived from this analysis to address the issue of university dropout as early as possible?

The present analysis integrates psychological-individual and sociological-institutional approaches (Heublein/Wolter 2011), to examine the role and interplay of transition management experiences, resilience, and social networks (in terms of peers, university staff, and study groups) in relation to dropout intentions over time. Additionally, a special focus on gender differences is considered within the analysis. A two-year panel survey (2022-2023) was conducted among all bachelor’s students in economics and social sciences at an Austrian public university. In 2022, students were contacted via mail, resulting in an initial participation of 1,502 students, of whom 1,000 completed the questionnaire, thereby providing a robust dataset for analysis (n = 1,000). In a subsequent round, these students were invited to re-participate in the survey in 2023. The survey results were then analysed using various regression models for panel analysis, including pooled and random effects models, to identify significant effects over time. Furthermore, to gain deeper insights into gender-based experiences, participants’ open-ended statements regarding their current study situation were analyzed for this paper. A total of 853 statements from students across both survey waves (2022-23) were coded and categorised using qualitative content analysis (Mayring/Fenzl, 2019). In this context, research in higher education that effectively combines quantitative and qualitative data over time remains relatively rare.

The findings derived from various panel models indicate that strong social networks (in relation to other peers), resilience, and smooth transition to university have a preventive effect on the intention to drop out. Notably, female students tend to perceive their interactions with lecturers and other university staff differently than their male counterparts, particularly concerning their intentions to withdraw from their studies. Further analyses reveal that women not only cite feelings of loneliness significantly more often as a reason for their intentions of withdrawal, but they also express greater frustration with the institution – considering distance learning – in their answers. Additionally, results from the qualitative content analysis demonstrate that female and male students evaluate loneliness and its underlying causes in distinct ways. While male students assert that they “prefer studying on their own anyway”, female students articulate complaints regarding the university environment and in their academic experiences, highlighting the challenges they face in forming social connections at university. Building on previous findings in higher education research, the results of the present study suggest that early preparation for studying, proactive management of the transition process by the institutions, support for the development of students' resilience, and the promotion of social networks that address gender-specific needs can prevent dropout intentions and contribute to reducing dropout rates among university students in the long run. These findings are of particular relevance to researchers and higher education policymakers aiming to implement early-stage prevention strategies to address university dropout rates.

Alkan, N. (2014). Humor, Loneliness and Acceptance: Predictors of University Drop-out Intentions. In: Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 152: 1079–1086. Bellmann, L./Leber, U. (2019). Bildungsökonomik, 2. erweiterte Auflage. Oldenburg: de Gruyter. Berndt, S./Felix, A. (2020). Resilienz und der Übergang in die Hochschule – Eine empirische Untersuchung der Bedeutung von Resilienz für den Studienerfolg und -abbruch in der Studieneingangsphase. In: Beiträge zur Hochschulforschung, 42 (1-2/2020): 36-55. Burk, M./Hetze, P. (2023). Hochschul-Barometer: Lage und Entwicklung der Hochschulen aus Sicht ihrer Leitungen, Ausgabe 2023. Essen: Stifterverband für die Deutsche Wissenschaft e.V. Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst (DAAD) (2021). New strategic framework for European cooperation in the field of education (2021-2030). Deuer, E./Wild, S. (2018). Validierung eines Instruments zur Erfassung der Studienabbruchsneigung bei dual Studierenden, 4. Auflage. Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg. Frisby, B.N. et al. (2020). The role of classroom relationships as sources of academic resilience and hope. In: Communication Quarterly, 68 (3): 289-305. Haag, N. et al. (2025). Studienverläufe: Zusatzbericht der Studierenden-Sozialerhebung 2023. Wien: Institut für Höhere Studien (IHS). Hauschildt, K. et al. (2024). Social and Economic Conditions of Student Life in Europe: Eurostudent 8 - Synopsis of Indicators 2021-2024. Bielefeld: wbv Media. Heublein, U. et al. (2022). Die Entwicklung der Studienabbruchquoten in Deutschland. In: DZHW-Brief, 2022 (05): 1-16. Heublein, U./Wolter, A. (2011). Studienabbruch in Deutschland. Definition, Häufigkeit, Ursachen, Maßnahmen. In: Zeitschrift für Pädagogik, 57 (2): 214-236. Hofmann, Y. E. et al. (2020). Die Bedeutung von Resilienz im Hochschulkontext – Eine Standortbestimmung von Forschung und Praxis. In: Beiträge 26 von 30 zur Hochschulforschung, 42 (1-2): 10-35. Mayring, P./Fenzl, T. (2019). Qualitative Inhaltsanalyse. In: Baur, N./Blasius, J. (eds) Handbuch Methoden der empirischen Sozialforschung. Springer VS: Wiesbaden. Lane, J. A. (2020). Attachment, Ego Resilience, Emerging Adulthood, Social Resources, and Well-Being Among Traditional-Aged College Students. In: TPC, 10 (2): 157-169. Nairz-Wirth, E./Feldmann, K. (2018). Hochschulen relational betrachtet. In: AQ Austria (eds): Durchlässigkeit in der Hochschulbildung. Beiträge zur 5. AQ Austria Jahrestagung 2017. Wien: Facultas. Potapova, E. (2025). Tackling dropout from higher education. ENESET report. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. Thaler, B. et al. (2021). Prüfungsinaktivität in Bachelor- und Diplomstudien an Universitäten. Wien: Institut für Höhere Studien (IHS). Tian, C. et al. (2025). Psychological distress and loneliness among European university students during the COVID-19 pandemic: a European survey. BMC Public Health, 25 (2025): 3841. Vossensteyn, H. et al. (2015). Dropout and Completion in Higher Education in Europe: Main Report. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.