The contemporary landscape of Vocational Education and Training (VET) is increasingly defined by its capacity to serve as a catalyst for "sustainable competitiveness, social fairness, and resilience". As articulated by the Council of the European Union (2020), modern VET systems must transcend traditional classroom boundaries to ensure educational and training outcomes align seamlessly with the dynamic requirements of the global labour market. In this context, Spain’s Organic Law 3/2022 represents a structural shift toward a more flexible, accessible, and inclusive model designed to promote lifelong learning and professional qualification. A primary innovation of this reform is the elevation of work-based learning through Intensive Dual VET, where students spend between 50% and 70% of their training within a company under an apprenticeship contract, effectively transitioning from a traditional student role to that of a "worker-learner".

The phenomenon of "Early Leaving from Education and Training" (ELET) has been viewed as an individual failure; however, modern institutional perspectives now interpret it as a systemic indicator of a lack of synchronicity between the educational offer and student’s expectations (Böhn & Deutscher, 2022; Cedefop, 2016; de Graaf & van Zenderen, 2013; Psifidou et al., 2021). Within the European Quality Assurance in VET (EQAVET) framework, completion rates serve as a core indicator of institutional health, shifting the focus toward the quality of the training provided. Academic literature suggests that dropping out is not a static event but a progressive process resulting from the intersect of various factors over time (Böhn & Deutscher, 2022; Bosset et al., 2022; Findeisen et al., 2022; Krötz & Deutscher, 2022; Krötz, 2024; Schmid, 2017), subjectively interpreted by the individual (Krötz & Deutscher, 2022).

Research identifies two critical stages in this process. First, pre-enrolment factors such as prior academic performance (Böhn & Deutscher, 2022; Bosset et al., 2022; Michaelis & Richter, 2022), socioeconomic status, and parental education levels significantly influence the transition to VET. When students are unable to access their preferred programs due to limited places, the risk of disengagement increases exponentially. Second, the "quality of fit" during training—both at the educational institution and within the company—is a primary determinant of retention. Adverse conditions, such as excessive workloads or tasks misaligned with the professional profile, act as strong predictors of dropout. Conversely, strong interpersonal relationships with mentors and the perceived utility of the curriculum promote successful pathways (Böhn & Deutscher, 2022; Fix et al., 2019; Krötz & Deutscher, 2022).

The urgency of this reform is particularly evident in Spain, which faces persistent challenges regarding youth unemployment and high ELET rates. The Balearic Islands present a critical case study, as regional data often reflects higher dropout rates than the national average. In response, the research project "Completion and Dropout Pathways in Intensive Dual VET" seeks to analyse the factors influencing these outcomes over a four-year period.

The primary objectives of the study are to evaluate the longitudinal processes of completion and dropout and to develop actionable, evidence-based proposals to foster educational success. By monitoring a cohort of 450 students, the research aims to define specific student profiles and categorise students’ pathways based on engagement and satisfaction. Ultimately, this project intends to provide a comprehensive understanding of how the Intensive Dual VET can serve as a robust dropout prevention mechanism, reframing VET from a purely classroom-based model into a viable and sustainable career pathway.

This paper presents an overview of the results obtained from the project of the R&D&I project Completion and dropout pathways in intensive dual vocational training: empirical approach and recommendations (PID2023-149074OB-I00) founded by MICIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033/ and FEDER, EU. A longitudinal study using questionnaires was conducted on the student pathways of the Intensive Dual VET in the Balearic Islands, involving 450 students who began their training in the 2024-25 academic year. The questionnaire aimed to define student profiles across several key dimensions. It first collected educational and training data, such as current education level (Intermediate or High VET), specialization (e.g., Culinary Arts, Finance), entry pathways (e.g., secondary education, exams, or prior VET), and previous academic pathways (e.g., course repetitions). Second, sociodemographic details were gathered, including gender, age, immigration status, residence duration, and family situation (e.g., living with parents or dependents). Third, the questionnaire explored motivations and expectations, focusing on students’ decision-making processes regarding specialisation and the Dual VET modality (e.g., proximity, professional requirements, personal interest), as well as career and further training/career plans. Fourth, it assessed satisfaction with current and past training, evaluating the quality of training, its alignment with personal goals, and relationships with peers and trainers. Fifth, it examines the factors and reasons influencing intentions to drop out, considering not only the final training dropout but also the multiple directions these intentions may follow, such as reorientation toward a different training specialisation (e.g., economic, academic, or personal barriers). Sixth, it gathered information on employment and domestic situation, such as current job relevance to training and weekly time spent working or caregiving. Seventh, health and well-being were assessed, including health status, illnesses, addictions, and financial challenges. The questionnaire also addressed family characteristics, such as migration status (Böhn & Deutscher, 2022; Michaelis & Richter, 2022), education level, and employment status. Lastly, it explored the influence of family, friends, teachers, or counselors on VET students’ choices. Data analysis was conducted using quantitative analytical techniques to explore patterns of program completion and dropout. The analyses were carried out using MS Excel and STATA. The survey was administered online between December 2024 and January 2025. All research procedures adhered to ethical standards, including the collection of informed consent and the application of strict data confidentiality measures.

The study expects to generate a comprehensive and theoretically grounded understanding of dropout intentions within Intensive Dual VET, moving beyond explanations that frame dropout as an individual shortcoming. While preliminary findings indicate that poor academic performance, financial hardship and mismatched expectations constitute major risk factors, the research expects to clarify how risk factors interact over time, showing that dropout intentions arise when students’ expectations and capacities do not align with the academic and workplace realities of Intensive Dual VET. In addition, the study aims to identify distinct dropout and completion pathways, treating it not as a discrete event but as a longitudinal process that unfolds over time. By examining the timing, sequencing and direction of disengagement, the research will categorise typical pathways into and out of training programmes, thereby capturing how academic difficulties, workplace experiences and socio-economic pressures intersect at different stages of students’ participation in Intensive Dual VET. Finally, the findings are expected to inform the development of evidence-based preventative frameworks designed to strengthen student retention. These frameworks will underpin personalised support protocols tailored to diverse learner profiles, integrating academic mentoring, financial guidance and expectation-management strategies. Emphasis will be placed on early-warning mechanisms that enable educational providers, employers and policymakers to identify students at risk before intentions to dropout crystallise into definitive exits. Taken together, these outcomes will equip key stakeholders and policymakers with robust diagnostic tools and practical intervention models, contributing to the creation of a more resilient, responsive and socially inclusive Intensive Dual VET system.

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