Current socioeconomic challenges and societal trends have fundamentally reshaped the transition to adulthood. In the European context, the stable employment pathways that supported previous generations have been disrupted by macroeconomic volatility, technological advances, and shifting societal values. The discrepancy between academic investment and employment outcomes has had a considerable impact on the priorities of young people, with many now perceiving fundamental "social citizenship" rights, such as stable housing, financial autonomy, and starting a family, as distant aspirational goals rather than guaranteed expectations (Nada et al. 2022; Santos et al. 2025; OECD 2025). 

In this context, the theoretical concepts of aspirations and expectations are particularly relevant. Aspirations are defined as idealistic hopes and dreams (Chavira et al. 2016) that originate in society’s cultural sphere (Khattab 2015). Conversely, expectations are predicated on a pragmatic evaluation of what young adults perceive to be feasibly achievable (Boxer et al. 2011), informed by personal circumstances and societal constraints (Behtoui 2017). These future-oriented cognitions significantly predict various academic and occupational outcomes (e.g., grades, educational attainment, motivational levels, occupational prestige), thereby influencing an individual's life trajectory and societal development (Agboola 2025; Valls 2022). 

A substantial body of research has explored various factors influencing these aspirations and expectations. At the individual level, cognitive-person variables such as academic self-regulation and psychological traits such as self-efficacy are strong drivers of future goals (Carroll 2009; Zahara et al. 2025). The family background, including factors such as family income, parental education, and especially parental expectations, provides a fundamental contextual foundation for adolescent’s future plans. Secure parental attachment and supportive parent-child communication enhanceacademic motivation and perceived competence (O’Donnell et al. 2025; Santos et al. 2025). In the school dimension, positive experiences in the classroom and school yard in both curricular and extracurricular activities positively influence academic aspirations. Additionally, enriching social relationships and a sense of belonging significantly impact the desire to continue studying (Zava et al. 2022; Katsantonis 2024). 

While individual, family and school factors have been extensively documented, a significant gap remains in the systematic integration of broader economic forces and societal shifts on aspirations and expectations. This understanding is crucial in the development of policies that foster and preserve the capacity to aspire, rather than forcing young people to lower their expectations in response to challenging times. 

Therefore, this review aims to provide a systematic overview of the factors that shape educational and occupational aspirations and expectations of adolescents, as identified in the recent literature. To achieve this objective, Ecological Systems Theory (Bronfenbrenner 1979) is adopted as a multi-level theoretical framework. It facilitates a comprehensive analysis of influences across the individual (e.g., self-efficacy), the microsystem (e.g., teachers), the mesosystem (e.g., interaction of parents and teachers), the exosystem (e.g., mass media, local governments), the macrosystem (e.g., social conditions), and the chronosystem (e.g., rise of AI, COVID-19-pandemic). By employing this multi-level lens, the research will provide a structured overview of relevant factors, explicitly accounting for changes in the macro- and chronosystem over the past decade. This systematic approach will contribute to scholarly discussions about youth transitions and enhance our understanding of how young adults’ horizons of possibility are structured. The overarching research questions guiding this review are: (1) What factors does the recent literature identify as shaping the educational and occupational aspirations and expectations of adolescents? (2) What role do current socioeconomic challenges and societal trends play in shaping the educational and occupational aspirations and expectations of adolescents? 

The present study employs a systematic literature review conducted in accordance with the PRISMA 2020 guidelines (Page et. al 2021). A comprehensive literature search was conducted in order to identify relevant studies using electronic database in the fields of education, sociology, psychology and economics: Scopus, Web of Science (including SCI, SSCI, ESCI), ProQuest (including ERIC, ABI, IBSS) and FIS Bildung. The search terms employed included educational/occupational aspirations/expectations and adolescents, along with relevant synonyms. To enhance the precision of the search, the search terms were limited to article titles, abstracts and keywords. The databases’ filters allowed for the focus on (a) journal articles (b) written in English or German and (c) published between 2015 and 2025. All identified records were exported into a basic spreadsheet for the selection process. Following the elimination of duplicates, the articles were subjected to a screening process that entailed an initial evaluation by title, followed by a subsequent screening based on the abstract. At this time, records with an alternative research focus (e.g., aspirations/expectations as an influencing factor for something else), another target group (e.g., children), or another sociocultural background (i.e., non-western countries) were excluded. Subsequently, the records were sought for retrieval and evaluated for eligibility in accordance with the formal inclusion and exclusion criteria (a-c). The data collection process involved the transfer of information from the records into the spreadsheet. The following information was deemed relevant and extracted from the records: The context (e.g., country), the method, the theoretical background/conceptual framework, the research interest, and the results. In particular, all factors considered to be shaping adolescents' aspirations and expectations were explored. The synthesis was conducted in accordance with the levels set out in the Ecological Systems Theory (Bronfenbrenner 1979). Firstly, an analysis was conducted on each record individually; secondly, it was conducted on each level individually; finally, it was conducted comprehensively across all levels, allowing for the capturing of cross-influences and interdependencies. All phases of the research process were conducted by the author of this study: The identification and screening of records, the data collection and the synthesis.

This systematic review will provide a detailed mapping of the individual-level (e.g., academic self-perception, self-regulation), the microsystem (e.g., parents, peers), the mesosystem (e.g., parent-teacher interactions), the exosystem (e.g., local educational policies, mass media portrayals of careers), and the macrosystem dimensions (e.g., national economic conditions, cultural values) that shape educational and occupational aspirations and expectations of adolescents. The synthesis will provide crucial insights into how changes within the chronosystem, such as the rapid rise of AI and post-pandemic shifts, introduce new uncertainties that can either constrain or create opportunities for aspirations. Ultimately, this review will contribute to policy development that effectively supports young people in navigating their transition to adulthood amidst evolving global trends. It will achieve this by offering a multi-level understanding of the factors at play, potentially targeting multiple dimensions of influence from the individual to the systemic level.

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