Students from socio-economically disadvantaged or ethnic minority backgrounds are more likely to experience grade retention or downward tracking than similarly performing peers (Boone et al., 2018; Klapproth & Schaltz, 2015; Locke & Sparks, 2019). Teachers play a key role in these processes through their expectations and recommendations (Batruch et al., 2023; Wang et al., 2018). This study examines whether teacher judgements about tracking and grade retention are biased by student background characteristics, even when academic performance is held constant. A factorial video vignette experiment was conducted among 961 teachers in 46 Flemish secondary schools. Teachers evaluated fictitious students who differed in socio-economic status, ethnicity, name, and language proficiency, while their academic performance was the same across profiles. Teachers reported their expectations about students’ future educational pathways and recommended appropriate interventions. The results show clear biases in teacher expectations: Students with higher socio-economic status and ethnic majority backgrounds receive higher expectations for further education. Name cues and language proficiency also influence expectations, pointing to implicit biases in teacher judgement. Interestingly, the most privileged students are more likely to be advised to change programmes rather than to repeat a grade, while recommendations for grade retention do not differ across profiles. Additional analyses suggest that teachers may assume disadvantaged students to be in lower tracks, as expectations about past performance are also biased. These findings show how teacher expectations and recommendations can contribute to social inequality through subtle decision-making processes. By isolating causal effects of student characteristics, the study highlights the normative nature of educational judgements and underlines the need for reflective and evidence-informed approaches to high-stakes decisions.

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