International studies have observed powerful effects of family SES on the cognitive development of children very early on in life. For instance, Feinstein (2003) has shown in the UK that even at age 22 months there are considerable differences between the cognitive abilities of high and low SES children. He examined the cognitive trajectories of these children and established that test scores at 22 months and at 42 months were correlated with educational attainment at age 26. Perhaps the most disconcerting aspect of Feinstein’s study was that he found no evidence that initial inequalities were reduced by entry into the school system. The considerable degree of sorting and mobility between the age of 22 months and 42 months on the basis of SES points to the importance of educational investments made in the home and is an indication that interventions should be employed as early as possible.  Heckman (2006) argues for exactly this, based on a similar analysis. He notes that although much hope is often put in schools to reduce skills gaps on the basis of SES, the motivations and abilities derived from one’s family background play a far stronger role in the determination of academic performance than do traditional school inputs. 

This study also investigates educational trajectories, but at higher ages in the South African context. School retention and performance in the major school-leaving matric (Grade 12) examination are characterised by significant inequalities on the basis of race and socio-economic status. In order to know at what point in the educational trajectory policy interventions and school improvement programmes will be most effective, it is necessary to trace the development of these educational inequalities to earlier phases of schooling and before.

The paper’s findings are based on a unique dataset that tracks individuals who participated in TIMSS in 2002 as grade 8 students to matric in 2006 and 2007.  This permits an investigation into the extent to which educational inequalities are already evident by the eighth grade, and what if anything is achieved by secondary schools to reduce them. The research questions relate to how much the educational trajectory between Grade 8 and Grade 12 is pre-determined by performance in Grade 8 in TIMSS (in which SES plays a strong role), and to what extent different parts of the schools system (and in particular the formerly race-based education sub-systems) still leave a mark in terms of both educational performance and progression.

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