Research has established the negative impact of risk factors on a range of school-related outcomes such as academic attainment, school engagement and behavioural problems in school (Perfect et al., 2016). Despite the strong association between risk factors and academic achievement, some children demonstrate academic resilience, that is, they do well academically in the face of acute and/or chronic adversity. 

In the resilience literature, while adversities and challenges that predict relatively poor academic outcomes are considered risk factors, protective factors are those variables which mitigate against these poor outcomes whilst potentially facilitating positive outcomes (Rutter, 1985). Whilst the important role of schools and education in the development of an individual’s cognitive, social and emotional functioning is widely recognised (Weare & Nind, 2011), most empirical studies of risk factors have not thoroughly investigated protective factors within the school context. 

The aims of the current study were thus to extend previous research by examining (a) the impact of risk factors in childhood on future academic attainment and (b) the moderating role of positive school factors in the association between risk and academic attainment. This study adopted a moderating (interactive) effects model of risk and resilience. First defined by Rutter (1979), this  framework explores the factors which explain positive development in the face of adversity but have little or no positive impact in the absence of adversity. To address this, protective effects are required to have an interactive relationship with the risk factor(s), whereby protective factors decrease the effect of risk (Gutman, 2020). In a moderation model, the moderator variable reduces or enhances the relationship between a predictor variable and the outcome variable, or the direction of the relationship is changed (Baron & Kenny, 1986).

This study is a secondary analysis of the Growing Up in Ireland (GUI) survey, a government-funded, longitudinal cohort study. This analysis used ‘Cohort ‘98’, a nationally representative sample of children who were nine-years-old (n=8,568; 48.7% male) at the time of the first wave of data collection in 2007/08. The cohort were followed up at Wave 2 in 2011/12, at age 13 (n=7,525), and again at Wave 3 in 2015/16, when they were 17/18-year-olds (n=5,190). We conducted multiple regression models in SPSS (v26) to examine the relationship between multiple risks at age 9 years (stressful life at events, economic vulnerability, neighbourhood disadvantage, environment, and safety, and bullying) and academic attainment at age 15/16 years, controlling for child gender, maternal education and family social class. We then used the SPSS Process Macro to test for the moderating effect of the following school protective factors, measured at age 13: child attitudes and beliefs towards school, the presence of caring and supportive relationships at school, and the school environment.

Experiencing multiple risks by age 9 was negatively associated with academic attainment at age 17/18 years, controlling for child gender, maternal education, socioeconomic status and academic attainment at age 9 and age 13 years (β= -.114, r2=.484, F(6,5707)=1.258, p<.001). There was a significant direct effect of factors exploring child attitudes and beliefs towards school at Wave 2 (attitude towards school, academic self-concept, educational aspirations) and academic attainment at Wave 3 (p<.05), indicating a promotive effect for these positive school factors. There was a significant interaction effect between academic attainment and attitude towards school (β=.03, p=.001), academic self-concept (β=.01, p=.04), and educational aspirations (β=.07, p=<.001). For these positive school factors, individual post-hoc analysis for interactions revealed that the impact of risk on academic attainment reduces as each positive school factor increases. There was a significant direct effect of positive interactions with teachers on academic attainment (β=.16, p<.001), but no moderating effect (β=.03, p=.21). There was no direct or moderating effect found for the other positive school factors (peer trust, adequate school facilities and attitude of students). Findings suggest that the impact of multiple risks on academic attainment reduces as attitude towards school, educational aspirations or academic self-concept increases, while positive interactions with teachers had promotive effects for later academic attainment. Findings will be discussed in relation to policy and practice.

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