Being able to read can be seen as the foundation of a functioning democracy enabling learning, equal participation in society, and a condition for a healthy and successful life (European Commission, 2023; EDUFI, 2021). Reading performance is closely linked with other areas of academic performance, and there is a strong association between student well-being in school and reading performance (European Commission, 2023). Moreover, the danger of failing to meet academic or social expectations or to complete school with a basic level of academic proficiency has been termed “at-risk” (e.g. Novosel et al., 2012).

In Finland, the trends in students’ academic well-being (e.g. Helenius & Kivimäki, 2023; Read et al., 2022) and learning performance (e.g. Mullis et al., 2023; OECD, 2023) have been descending in the last decade. For example, Grade 4 students’ performance in reading has decreased from 2011 to 2021 as evidenced by the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS) (Mullis et al., 2023). The performance in reading declined by two points from 2011 to 2016 and by 17 points from 2016 to 2021. When examining the international reading benchmarks, the percentage of advanced achievers has dropped from 18% to 14% during this period. Meanwhile, the percentage of students at the low or below benchmark has doubled from 8% to 16%. We define these students as “students at risk”. They are in danger of not achieving adequate reading proficiency which is crucial for their learning success or failure in subsequent school years.

As for student well-being, the latest School Health Promotion Study (Helenius & Kivimäki, 2023) shows that more than one third of girls and one in five boys felt that their health was average or poor in Finland. The study also reports that experiences of physical threats and bullying have recently increased. Furthermore, school burnout has increased for a long time, especially among girls (Read et al., 2022).

Student well-being in school can be considered as a condition that enables positive learning outcomes but also as an outcome of successful learning and students’ satisfaction with their school experiences (Morinaj & Hascher, 2022). Student well-being in school consists of positive attitudes to school, enjoyment in school, positive academic self-concept, the absence of worries, physical complaints, and social problems in school, which can be used as indicators of well-being (Hascher, 2003).

In PIRLS, student well-being is indirectly measured by several indicators – such as school belonging, academic self-concept, experience of bullying, and absenteeism (Reynolds et al., 2024). PIRLS 2021 data was collected during the COVID-19 pandemic, but then there were no school closures in Finland. However, one year before these students’ schooling was disrupted, and they spent eight weeks in distance learning. Lerkkanen et al. (2022) showed that the Finnish students’ development in reading was slower from Grade 2 to 4 in the COVID sample compared to the pre-COVID sample. Previous research has detected the association between student well-being and learning performance but also the need for further examining this relation and the role of other factors associated with reading achievement, e.g. socioeconomic background (e.g. Bücker et al., 2018; Nilsen et al., 2022). For example, Manu et al. (2023) focused on the role of gender and parental education, and Torppa et al. (2022) the effects of the home literacy environment on the development of Finnish children’s reading comprehension.

In this study, we ask the following research questions, using the PIRLS reading assessment data from 2011 to 2021: 

1) How has students’ well-being in school changed, if any, from 2011 to 2021? 

2) How do students’ socioeconomic background and well-being factors predict the risk of low academic achievement in reading?

The present study is based on the three cycles of curriculum-based PIRLS assessment in Finland. The data includes the 4th graders who participated in PIRLS 2011 (N = 4,640), PIRLS 2016 (N = 4,896), and PIRLS 2021 (N = 7,018). In this study, we use school climate and safety, students’ attitudes, and absenteeism as indicators of well-being. School climate and safety include the scales of Students’ Sense of School Belonging (3 items) and Bullying (6 items). Students’ attitudes include the scales of Students Like Reading (5 items) and Students Confident in Reading (7 items). These four-point scales are from PIRLS student questionnaires. From each scale, we selected those items that were the same in all three cycles of PIRLS assessment. Absenteeism was asked of students (in years 2016 and 2021, not asked in 2011) by a single item reporting how often they are absent from school. As an indicator of student’s socioeconomic background, we used Home Socioeconomic Status and Home Resources for Learning scales, and Parents’ Educational Level separately. The data was analysed by using various statistical methods. To answer the second research question, binary logistic regression analysis was applied. The low achievement benchmark (cut point 474) was used as a binary response. Students’ socioeconomic background and well-being factors were used as explanatory variables. This analysis was conducted separately for each of the three PIRLS data sets. Five plausible values representing students’ proficiency in reading (see von Davier et al., 2023) were used in the analyses. A two-stage sampling design used in the PIRLS assessment (von Davier et al., 2023) was considered in the analyses.

Overall, the Finnish 4th grade students’ well-being was relatively good. Examination of the trends of means showed that there are some changes in students’ well-being from 2011 to 2021. After 2011, students’ sense of school belonging increased, and bullying first decreased from 2011 to 2016 but increased again from 2016 to 2021. From 2011 to 2021, both students liking reading and confidence in reading decreased. The preliminary results of logistic regression showed that there were significant associations between bullying, student confident in reading, student socioeconomic background, parents’ educational level, absenteeism, gender, and low achievement in reading. In all three cycles of PIRLS (2011, 2016, and 2021), the predictive factors for the risk of low academic achievement in reading were the students’ low degree of confidence in their own reading ability, lower socioeconomic background, parents’ low educational level (in 2021 even below higher education), and gender (boy). In PIRLS 2016 and 2021 datasets, the frequency of absences from school (once a week) also predicts the risk of low academic achievement in reading. Being subjected to bullying about weekly was a risk factor in PIRLS 2021 dataset. When identifying at-risk students in reading, the results suggest that family background, especially the educational background of parents, has become more important, as has bullying. In Finland, however, about 5% of the students experienced bullying about weekly. In addition, the students’ confidence in their own reading ability seems to be a strong predictor of reading achievement. Furthermore, the gender gap in reading achievement has remained rather large favouring girls for a long time in Finland. It also seems that the factors predicting the risk of low academic achievement in reading are linked to each other. This study supports earlier research on the meaning of students’ well-being and socioeconomic background to learning.

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